Maryland at Memphis Mar 21 2009 3:20PM
PICK: Memphis - 9.5
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski

TITLE: 9* HIGHEST RATED MASSIVE MISMATCH- 100% RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
PLAY ON 9* Memphis (-) vs. Maryland, Saturday

The Tigers definitely got their scare in round one. The Cal State Northridge Matadors played mighty Memphis close the entire game until a late spurt by the Tigers gave them an 11-point win. It was a poorly played game by Memphis, especially on the defensive end, and head coach John Calipari was not happy with his team’s effort. After the game he insinuated his team got “a little full of themselves” and didn’t play with the toughness and effort that got them to this point. Calipari will REALLY get his team’s attention during their short one day break and expect the Tigers to play very well on Saturday.

Maryland came out with a nice win in round one over California. The Terps shot very well at 49%, however you must consider the defense they faced. The Bears had allowed an average of 44.2% on the year (203rd nationally) and opposing offenses up 1.002 points per possession on their porous stop unit (200th nationally). Keep in mind, this is not a potent Maryland offense. They shot only 42% on the year overall and just 41% in ACC play (11th in the league). Look for them to come back to earth as they now face off against the best defense in the nation so look for a huge drop off from their previous output. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot only 36.4% and just 0.827 points per possession (both #1 nationally). Prior to Thursday’s game, Memphis had allowed more than 60 points just once in their previous 12 games.

Another huge advantage for Memphis is this game will be rebounding. The Tigers are very strong and athletic up front which resulted in them being one of the best rebounding teams on the country. That’s not a good match up for Maryland who finished 11th in the ACC on the boards. The Terps were actually out rebounded in 9 of their last 10 games. Memphis will get a bunch of extra shots because of their effort on the boards and on defense. That will push them to an easy win on Saturday. Remember, this team is mad and their coach let them have it after Thursday’s win. The Tigers get back to what got them here and coast on Saturday.

Best of Luck, Lee.