The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Michigan has had a nice year, going 21-13 overall, but struggling whenthey take to the road as they are just 7-10. Michigan has played well defensively this year as they have allowed just 63.2 ppg overall and 57.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but if this team hopes to compete in this one they will have to do a better job offensively. Michigan comes in averaging66.7 ppg overall, but just 60.6 ppg away from home and 61.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Today they wil be facing a Sooner squad that does allow 67.4 ppg overall, but they are 20th in the nation in defensive FG% as they have allowed teams to shoot for just 39.4%. The Sooners offense is where the biggest edge in this game goes to. Oklahoma has averaged a healthy79.3 ppg overall (11th) and they are 3rd in FG% (49.1%), plus they have averaged 75.2 ppg on 49.6% shooting in ther neutral site games and 75.4 ppg on 50.6 ppg in their last 5 games. No way Michigan can match the Sooners point for point in this one and just lie the UConn game the Wolverines will run out of gas down the stretch, as Oklahoma pulls away for a solid double digit win.
3 UNIT PLAY
Maryland/ Memphis Over 132
The Over is 4-0 in Terrapins last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 22-8 in their last 30 Saturday games, while the Over is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Ok we all know about how strong the Memphs defense has been down the stretch, but they did just allow CS Northridge to get 70 points in their first round game. Memphis has allowed just 57.6 ppg in their neutral site games this year, but that number jumps to 68.5 ppg when they face a non- Conference USA opponent. THeir 4 neutral site games vs non-conf opponents have averaged 145 ppg. Memphis has allowed just 57.3 ppg overall, but 61.3 ppg vs non-conf opponents. Maryland has put up 71.8 ppg overall, 69.6 ppg in their neutral site games and 73.5 ppg in their last 4 games. I feel that Maryland has an excellent shot at hitting 62+ points in this one. That's good news as the Memphis Tigers should be good for at least 70+. Memphis has averaged 74.3 ppg overall and 70.7 ppg in their neutral site games, plus they have averaged 76.7 ppg vs non-conf opponents this year. The will be facing a maryland team that has struggled on defense when not playimg on their home floor as they have allowed 71.9 ppg when traveling this year. Memphis' non conf games have averaged 138 ppg, while Maryland's games have averaged 140.3 ppg overall. I see this one in the 140's as well.
2 UNIT PLAY
UConn/ Texas A$M over 139
The Over is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 overall, while the Over is 10-2-1 in Huskies last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and 13-3 in their last 16 neutral site games as a favorite. A&M's neutral sirte games have averaged 144 ppg, while UConn's neutral games have averaged 167.8 ppg. UConn has averaged 78.1 ppg on the year, including 89 ppg in their last 5 games and 91.5 ppg on a neutral floor. The Aggies have averaged 83.4 ppg in their last 5 games 71.8 ppg overall and 73.4 ppg on a neutral floor. Both teams can push the ball and I see this one in the 150's.
1 UNIT PLAY
UCLA/ Villanova Under 145
The Under is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 neutral site games and 9-3 in their last 12 vs. Big East, while the Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 non-conference games. The Bruins had been involved in higher scoring than tey were accustomed to during the middle part of the year, but things have reverted back to normal down the stretch as their last 6 games have averaged just 133.5 ppg. The Bruin defense is starting to assert itself once again as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg on just 40% shooting in their last 5 games, while they have allowed just 59.4 ppg on 41.7 shooting in their neutral site games. Villanova has allowed just 67 ppg on the year, including just 67.8 pg in their last 6 games. I just see too much defense in this one to think the teams can top 145 points.
Jorge
Baylor vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech - 4.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies will be playing host in their second game in the NIT tournament. They will be taking on a Baylor Bear team that does not travel well with a record of of 2-8 away from home losing by an average margin of 7.8 points per game. The Bears are coming of a close victory 74-72 victory over Georgetown. The Hokies had several big wins and come into this game having covered four of their last five games. The Hokies are coming off a dramatic 116-108 overtime victory over Old Dominion. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS after scoring 90 points in the previous game. Baylor has covered just once in their last eight games played on Saturday and covered the spread just twice in their last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game.
Jeff Scott/ Jorge Gonzalez 3-21-09
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