LSU + over North Carolina

North Carolina dominated in round one but the competition takes a huge leap in the second round with a very strong LSU team. The Tigers were easily the top team in the SEC and this is a veteran team with great guard play. The Tigers will be at a disadvantage inside as UNC has great size but with a less than 100 percent Ty Lawson for the Heels, LSU should have the edge in the backcourt. North Carolina's defense has been suspect all season long and against a team with strong guard play the opportunities will be there. In recent games teams like Maryland, NC State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, guards have caused problems for UNC and the Tar Heels have been an atrocious ATS team this season. North Carolina is just 6-15 ATS in the last 21 games and as one of the most public teams in the country the Tar Heels are continually overvalued. Even if Lawson is completely healthy the team could be a bit out of sync and the Tar Heels did not play its best ball down the stretch and early indications are not favorable for Lawson. UNC does catch a favorable venue but this was not a strong ATS team at home and LSU is not a team that is likely to be blown out.