3 Star Selection
***Wake Forest (-7 ?) over Cleveland State
Rotation 826
I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 ? or -9 points. My math model predicts 140 total points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona State (-4 1/2) over Temple
Rotation 830
I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 4-Stars at -4 or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points. My predicted total is 121 ? points.
3 Star Selection
***Wake Forest (-7 ½) over Cleveland State
Rotation 826
I lost my Best Bet on Butler -6 over Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament Final, but that win by the Vikings gives me no hesitation in going against them again here. Cleveland State is still not as good in games without injured guard D’Aundray Brown (51% FG, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game) and the only reason they were even close against Butler was due to a huge variance from the expected 3-point shooting of each team. Cleveland State has only made 31.7% of their 3-point shots this season, but the Vikings were 10 of 19 in that game against a good Butler defense (I expected 28.3% 3-point shooting) and a good shooting Butler team (35.2%) made just 4 of 19 3-point shots when they were expected to make 34.8% at home against a slightly better than average Cleveland State 3-point defense. Cleveland State managed to make 6 more 3-pointers on the same number of attempts as Butler in that game, rather than making less as expected, and the Vikings would have lost by about 15 points had the 3-point shooting not been so randomly variant. Beating Butler has made the Vikings a bit overrated while Wake’s loss to Maryland in the ACC tournament has resulted in less respect. Wake Forest may have lost to Maryland, but they are good enough to be 6-1 straight up against the best teams that they faced this season – winning at BYU, beating North Carolina in their only meeting, sweeping Clemson, beating Florida State by 23 points and splitting two games with Duke. My ratings favor Wake Forest by 8 ½ points with Brown out for Cleveland State and the Demon Deacons’ strong defense (I rate them 15th in the nation in adjusted points per possession allowed) should overwhelm a normally poor shooting Vikings squad (43% FG, 32% 3-pointers). Cleveland State does play good defense, but Wake Forest performed relatively better offensively against better defensive teams, as wins over Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina would attest. The reason for this play is a number of strong situations that favor Wake Forest, including a 15-0 ATS subset of an 82-29-3 ATS first round angle. Cleveland State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 9-33-1 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points. My math model predicts 140 total points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona State (-4 1/2) over Temple
Rotation 830
Temple played great in winning the Atlantic 10 tournament, but the Owls are not good enough to beat Arizona State if both teams play their normal game. Temple and Arizona State both shoot a lot of 3-pointer (21 per game at 36.7% for Temple and 22 per game at 36.6% for ASU), but the Sun Devils have an advantage in this match-up because they defend the 3-point arc so much better. ASU allowed just 31.4% long range shooting to a schedule of teams that combine to average 35.5% from deep while Temple was just average defending the arc, giving up 34.3% 3-point shooting to teams that combine for 34.5%. Temple’s Dionte Christmas is getting a lot of pub for his good performance in the A 10 tournament, but Christmas is an inconsistent shooter that made just 41% of his shots while ASU star James Hardin in a top 5 NBA draft pick that made 50% of his shots while adding 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game. My ratings favor Arizona State by 6 ½ points and the Sun Devils are due to bounce-back from their loss to USC in the Pac-10 finals. Coach Herb Sendek’s team is 20-11 ATS after a point spread loss in his 3 seasons, including 12-2 ATS recently, so it’s not often the Sun Devils play poorly in consecutive games. Temple has accumulated a very good spread record the last two seasons (41-22-3 ATS), but the Owls don’t perform as well against motivated teams and they are just 3-10-1 ATS against a .500 or better team that is coming off a loss (1-6 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS as a dog). Temple also applies to a negative 2-17 ATS subset of a 42-70-1 ATS letdown situation while the Sun Devils apply to a 99-36-3 ATS round 1 angle. I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 4-Stars at -4 or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points. My predicted total is 121 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
***Wake Forest (-7 ?) over Cleveland State
06:40 PM Pacific - Rotation 826
I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 ? or -9 points. My math model predicts 140 total points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona State (-4 1/2) over Temple
11:45 AM Pacific - Rotation 830
I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 4-Stars at -4 or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points. My predicted total is 121 ? points.
2 Star Selection
**Michigan State (-16) over Robert Morris
06:50 PM Pacific - Rotation 840
I’ll still lean with the Spartans at -17 or less and the Spartans would apply to a 42-13-4 ATS round 1 situation if they are a favorite of 16 points or less, so I’d make Michigan State a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 or less. My math model predicts 132 total points.
2 Star Selection
**Kansas (-9) over North Dakota State
09:30 AM Pacific - Rotation 844
I’ll consider Kansas a Strong Opinion at -10 or less (a regular opinion at -10 ? or -11) and I’d take the Jayhawks in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less. My predicted total is 153 points, so I will lean with the Over.
Utah (pick) vs Arizona
04:10 PM Pacific - Rotation 824
I have no opinion at pick, but I’d lean with Utah at +1 or more. My math model predicts 137 ? total points.
Syracuse (-12) vs SF Austin
09:15 AM Pacific - Rotation 828
I have no opinion on this game but I’d lean with SF Austin at +13 points or more and with Syracuse at -10 ? or less. My predicted total is 130 points.
Louisville (-21) vs Morehead State
04:10 PM Pacific - Rotation 832
I have no opinion on this game, as the situation favors Louisville and the line value favors Morehead. My math model projects 129 total points.
Ohio State (-3) over Siena
06:40 PM Pacific - Rotation 834
I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion in this game and I’ll also consider Over 143 points or less as a Strong Opinion since my math model predicts 148 total points in this game. Update Ohio State to a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less.
Pittsburgh (-20) vs East Tennessee State
11:55 AM Pacific - Rotation 836
I’ll pass. My predicted total is 152 ? points.
Tennessee (-2) vs Oklahoma State
09:25 AM Pacific - Rotation 838
I have no opinion on this game and my math model predicts 157 total points.
Boston College (+2 ?) over Usc
04:20 PM Pacific - Rotation 842
I’ll consider Boston College a strong opinion at +2 ? and a regular opinion at +2 and I’ll take BC as a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.
West Virginia (-9) vs Dayton
12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 846
My predicted total is 123 ? points, so I will lean with the under.
Cornell (+13) over Missouri
12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 847
My predicted total is 151 points and I’ll also lean over at 147 points or less.
Marquette (-4 ?) vs Utah State
09:30 AM Pacific - Rotation 850
There are situations favoring both sides in this game and I’ll pass. My predicted total is 138 ? points.
Florida State (-2 ?) vs Wisconsin
06:55 PM Pacific - Rotation 852
so I have no opinion. I would lean with Florida State at -1 or better and my predicted total is 121 ? points.
Portland State (+10 ?) over Xavier
04:25 PM Pacific - Rotation 853
I’ll lean slightly with Portland State at +10 points or more and my predicted total is 139 ? points.
Dr. Bob 3-20-09
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