Scott Rickenbach
3/19/2009
12:20:00 PM LOUISIANA STATE TIGERS (-2)
over Butler Bulldogs
Scott Rickenbach’s March Madness Game #714 – 1* (regular play) LSU Tigers (-) vs Butler @ Greensboro, NC @ 12:20 PM ET – Butler is a “trendy” choice here but it’s for the wrong reasons. The Bulldogs have been a “Cinderella Story” in the past and so people have latched onto that and love having Butler as an underdog. The result for us is line value as this line continues to creep lower and lower. We successfully faded Butler in the Horizon League Championship Game when they lost outright to Cleveland State! Among the top tier teams in the Horizon League, those with 11 conference wins or more, the Bulldogs lost to all but one of them at least once. In addition to losses to Wisconsin Green Bay, the Vikings, and Wisconsin Milwaukee, the Bulldogs also lost in non-conference action against Ohio State. Simply put, this team is a notch below prior versions and it has a lot to do with the Bulldogs youth. The inexperience of Butler will show up in a big way now that the Big Dance is underway! LSU is a gritty SEC team that has good size and does the “little things” on the floor that often don’t show up in a box score but yet equate to wins in the standings! This is a big part of the reason they enjoyed so much success in Trent Johnson’s first season as the head coach of the Tigers. LSU has Chris Johnson in the paint and that senior is joined on the floor with seniors Marcus Thornton and Garrett Temple. Thornton is a big-time scorer and Temple is a strong defender. Also, Bo Spencer does a fantastic job running the team even though he’s only a sophomore. Also, even though Thornton is considered the “go-to guy” on offense, Tasmin Mitchell, a junior, has hit critical shots throughout the season and is a very strong rebounder. We understand the “affection” for Butler here but the Bulldogs are much younger than the Tigers and also will be at a size disadvantage at every position on the floor. Yes, LSU was “tripped up” some late in the season but, after a ten game winning streak from late Jan to the end of Feb, the Tigers came up flat against Vandy after a big road win at Kentucky. That didn’t leave a lot of “fuel” in the tank for their regular season finale at Auburn and so they fell well short. As for the SEC Tourney, they knocked off Kentucky again before falling short against Mississippi State. However, the Bulldogs are a very solid team and strong defensively. That had a lot to do with the Tigers taking ten more shots from the field than the Bulldogs and yet still losing. You can bet that LSU is not going to shoot 31% from the field again here! We are betting on that too and the Tigers are offering tremendous value here against an over-rated Butler team! Play LSU minus the points as a regular selection