Larry Ness
GAME: Morgan State @ Oklahoma Mar 19, 2009 9:40PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Oklahoma - 16.5
REASON FOR PICK:
Todd Bozeman led California to the "Big Dance" three times, before he resigned in 1996 amid an NCAA investigation. He got the job at Morgan St three years ago and won just 13 games in his first season. The Bears went 14-2 last year and won the MEAC's regular season title but lost 62-60 to Coppin State in the MEAC championship game, on a driving layup with 2 seconds left. Coppin State advanced to the NCAA tournament at 16-20 (the most losses by any school to the make the NCAAs) while Morgan St lost 94-62 at Va Tech in the first round of the NIT. Morgan St won the MEAC regular season title again this year (13-3) and this time, won the tourney with an easy 83-69 win over Norfolk State. Morgan State earned its first-ever NCAA tournament bid as the Bears earned their second MEAC tournament title and first since 1977. Nice story but Morgan St is in way over its head vs the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners, led by Blake Griffin (21.9-4.4), entered their game in Austin vs Texas 25-1 and poised to take over the AP's top spot with a win. However, Griffin went down with a concussion and the Longhorns won 73-68. Griffin wasn't able to play in the team's next game either, a home loss to Kansas. Griffin has returned but the Sooners lost their first game in the Big 12 tourney, 71-70 to Oklahoma St, and the Sooners enter this game 27-5 overall and a No. 2 seed. The Sooners are not deep but their starting-five is capable of making a Final 4 run. Griffin's 6-7 older brother Taylor (9.6-6.0) starts alongside his younger brother with three guards. Warren (14.7), a 6-5 freshman, has had an excellent season, joined by vets Crocker (9.6) who is 6-6, and PG Johnson (8.8-3.9 APG). OU's key reserves are the 6-6 Pattillo (7.1-3.9) and guard Davis (5.1). Morgan St employs a three-guard lineup as well, with Holmes (16.9-5.5), Bolen (9.2-4.9 APG) and Barnes (8.6). The 6-5 Kately (11.0-5.4) is joined in the frontcourt by the 6-8 freshman Thompson (8.9-7.0). The Sooners were well on their way to a No. 1 seed when Blake Griffin got hurt vs Texas on Feb 21 and then lost a tough one-point game to OSU in the Big 12 tourney. The Sooners, who average 79.2 PPG and shoot 48.8 percent as a team (6th-best in the nation), know that a 6-8 freshman (Thompson) is no match for Blake Griffin inside and when he dominates that matcup, the perimeter shots will be wide-open. Bozeman's return to the "Big Dance" ends in the first round. Lay the 16.5 points with the Sooners.
Analysis: Rick Stansbury has had a nice run in Starkville, Mississippi. He entered this year with a 10-year mark of 2018-115, taking the Bulldogs to FIVE NCAA tourneys since 2002. His Bulldogs entered the NCAA tournament at 19-12 (9-7) last Thursday and beat Georgia, South Carolina, LSU and Tennessee to give the Bulldogs their sixth NCAA trip in his 11 years (not bad). Out in Seattle, Lorenzo Romar was coming off back-to-back poor season with his Huskies, finishing 16-17 last year, after a 19-win season the previous year had left his team without a postseason invite. However, prior to that, Washington had made three consecutive NCAA trips under Romar, including back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances in '05 (29 wins) and '06 (26 wins). Many expected the Huskies to be much better this year but no one predicted that at 14-4 in the Pac10, Washington would win its first outright Pac 10 regular season title since 1953 (a very good year, as that's when I was born!). Washington easily dispatched of Stanford in the Pac 10 quarters but in the semis, lost to ASU 75-65, a team it had beaten twice during the regular season. However, "all's well that ends well," as U-Dub gets its preferred sub-regional venue in Portland, Oregon. MSU beat Oregon in last year's NCAA first round but gone from that team are the team's best all-around player, swingman Gordon (17.2-6.6-4.9) and the team's best inside player, the 6-8 Rhodes (17.4-7.8). Also lost was starting guard Ben Hansbrough (10.5), as Tyler's "little brother" decided to transfer to Notre Dame. The 6-9 Varnado (13.1-9.0) has had an excellent season, while also leading the NCAA in blocks (4.6 per game). Stewart (12.3-3.8) returned to the backcourt and played well, joined by freshman Bost (11.1-3.6-4.7) and sophomore Turner (8.5-5.4). Ravern Johnson (12.2) is a 6-7 swingman, while the 6-8 Augustus (6.1-3.3) and 6-8 freshman Osby (4.2-2.6) add depth to the frontcourt.The 6-7 Brockman (14.9-1 1.2) is finally in his senior year at Washington and he has a chance to "make it special," after two disappointing seasons. The 6-6 Pondexter (11.5-5.7) starts next to him on teh frontline, as does 6-8 freshman Gant (3.1-3.4). The starting backcourt is made up of "something old and something new." There is senior Dentmon (15.0-2.8-2.5) and a wonderful freshman, Thomas (15.4-3.1-2.5). The "first man off the bench," is the very versatile 6-9 Bryan-Amaning (6.3-4.2). Washington averages 78.9 PPG and its toughness on the boards has them at plus-8.4 in rebounding margin, the 4th-best margin in the nation. MSU not only gets a tough venue (very favorable to Washington) but must travel off a its grueling four-day trek to the SEC tourney title. Yes, Varnado (13.8-8.8 in the four games), Stewart (16.3 PPG the L3) and Turner (18 points and 21 rebounds the L2) all played well. Also, the Bulldogs' 'D' never let up, allowing just 61.5 PPG in the four games, while holding their four opponents to 32.7 percent from the floor (including 28.6 percent on threes). However, after averaging 80.5 PPG in their first two wins on 48.7 percent shooting (43.6 on threes), the "tired" Bulldogs averaged just 65.5 PPG on 34.6 percent shooting (22.7 percent on threes) the last two games. It's all U-Dub in this one!
Balfe and Ness 3-19-09
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