3 Star Selection
***Indiana (+3 1/2) over TORONTO
09:35 AM Pacific - Rotation 871
Indiana is coming off a couple of losses to Utah and at Atlanta, but the Pacers are a resilient team that is 17-3-1 ATS after back-to-back losses and an incredible 18-1 ATS after a road game in which they lost straight up and lost to the spread (12-0 ATS if also off 2 losses). Indiana also applies to a 44-11-2 ATS subset of a 188-83-5 ATS bounce-back situation and the Pacers haven’t really missed leading scorer Danny Granger. In fact, the Pacers have actually been a bit better this season in 15 games without Granger, going 9-6 straight up and rating at 0.1 points worse than an average team, compared to 19-33 straight up and rating at 1.2 points worse than average in the 52 games Granger has played (Granger has been upgraded to probable today). Toronto, meanwhile, is riding a 7 game losing streak and the Raptors are just 2-9 straight up and 2-9 ATS since trading away under-appreciated Jamario Moon (with Jermaine O’Neal) to Miami for Shawn Marion. Moon is a very energetic player that was sneaky good offensively and very good defensively and the Raptors allow 1.12 points per possession this season when Moon is not playing, compared to 1.06 ppp when Moon was on the floor for Toronto. NBA games average over 90 possessions per game, so that’s a difference of over 5 points defensively between Moon playing with Toronto and not playing. My ratings would favor Toronto by just 1 point even if I don’t adjust for the bad trade they made and using only games since Marion joined the team would result in a prediction of Pacers by 3 ½ points. Toronto is just 17-37-2 ATS this season against teams that did not play the previous night and this looks like a great opportunity to go against the slumping Raptors. I was considering making the Pacers a 4-Star at +3, but there is no telling how well Granger will play in his first game back and Indiana hasn’t been quite as good with him in the lineup. I’ll take Indiana in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.
Dr. Bob/ Trushel 3-15-09
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