3-Unit Play. Take #525 Purdue (-3.5) over Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Purdue is healthy and focused and I think ready to atone for not winning the Big 10 title. They looked very sharp yesterday and now get an Illini team that really probably played as well as it possibly could yesterday. That puts them into the same category as to why we bet against Michigan yesterday - teams can't peak in any one game in a conference tourney. Purdue is much better defensively and much more experienced than Michigan is. that means Illinois isn't going to shoot as well. Illinois has won three straight in this series so I think that the Boilermakers are bent on getting some revenge. And the bottom line is this: Robbie Hummel is back and healthy for Purdue and he looks great. Illinois picked it up without Chester Frazier, but missing your starting point guard this time of year is never going to be a good thing for a team. Illinois has been up and down all years, as proven by their 2-5 ATS mark after a win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #519 Florida State (+9) over North Carolina (1:30 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
I think we saw yesterday that North Carolina is still very, very good but that they aren't the same team without Ty Lawson on the court. I think that UNC will just play a little slower and I think that FSU's defensive pressure can really exploit that and make things even more difficult for the Tar Heels. If this game is played in the half court that 100 percent favors FSU and favors a lower scoring game. If that occurs, I think that Toney Douglas and some of the strong pieces that the Seminoles have can compete in this one. Florida State lost by just three points AT North Carolina, WITH Lawson, earlier in the season. I think the Noles can be effective in some of the same ways that Virginia Tech was. And as long as the officials don't continue to coddle Ty Hansbrough and the Heels like they did yesterday than I think FSU really could give a run at winning this game.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #540 Nevada (-1) over Utah State (10 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
The Wolfpack were beat last night. They were done. If they were playing anywhere but on their home court last night their season would be over. But we saw last night that having a home court edge in a conference tournament is a tremendous advantage. We don't have to look any further than what UNLV has done in past MWC tournaments for proof of that. Utah State knows that it is in a "must win" situation to get into the NCAA Tournament. But all week, for the most part, fading the must wins has been a moneymaker. I'll roll with the home team here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Maryland (+9.5) over Duke (3:30 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
Maryland is just playing great basketball. There's nothing more to say. I don't think that they are any good and I don't think that they deserve an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. But right now the way they are playing they can beat anyone in the country. In a lot of ways they remind me of Georgia last year when the Bulldogs ran through the SEC Tournament. Duke is soft. They are soft in the middle of the court and they are laying a load of points. Maryland is playing better than Boston College was, and B.C. really should have beaten the Blue Devils last night. I don't like the uncertainty at Duke's PG spot and I think that if Maryland plays even close to what they've done the last two nights they'll be in good shape.
1-Unit Play. Take #516 LSU (-3.5) over Mississippi State (1 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
If you look around at some of the other No. 1 seeds in the other conference tournaments and their lines were three times what this one is for the SEC's best team. Mississippi State has been playing wel. But they are still at the whim of James Varnardo's foul situation. As in, if he gets in foul trouble then LSU will win this one by 15. The Tigers are a team that does a lot of damage from the perimeter and has the length and athleticism that Varnardo won't both them as much as he did the small guards for LSU. The Tigers won the first meeting by almost 30. If LSU plays like it did yesterday then I think they could win this one big as well.
1-Unit Play. Take #517 Auburn (+4.5) over Tennessee (3 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #529 Baylor (+10.5) over Missouri (6 p.m.) AND Take #517 Auburn (+9.5) over Tennessee (3 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #519 Florida State (+14) over North Carolina (1:30 p.m.) AND 1.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Maryland (+14.5) over Duke (3:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 124.5 San Diego State vs. Utah (7 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 149.5 Florida State vs. North Carolina (1:30 p.m., Saturday, March 14)
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