GREG SHAKER

NCAAB: Ohio State Buckeyes
at Michigan State Spartans
Under 126 -110


Game Date: 3/14/2009
Note: Michigan State games over the last few days of this season and the first game of the Big Ten Tournament are prime examples of why we see lower than usual scoring affairs during the time when wins mean the most. The Cream D Teams bring their Cream to the Top and that has what has happened to the Spartans the last 6 times they have been on the court. This squad is ranked #10 in defensive efficiency this year and they are displaying their talents in a big way with six consecutive victories. Over this span opponents are connecting on just 38% of their shots, and they are scoring just 56 points per contest. Much of scoring woes have been not due to anything more than a much lower pace being set. Over the course of the season, the Spartans have ranked at or near the Top 100 in this department, but the have slipped hard into more halfcourt of late and that is typical. Perhaps that is why they are 5-1 UNDER last 6, and low and behold and they are 9-1 UNDER last 10 as well. Trends like this mean something when they mean something. With Ohio State on the other side of the court today, it would be far fetched to expect anything other than what has been going on lately. The Buckeyes have the #300 Pace in the country out of 341 teams. That means they crawl up the court. Including yesterday, they are 10-3 UNDER when not playing on their homecourt. Their last 4 games have played UNDER the Total. Trends like this mean something when they mean something. Wait! I have already told you that. Ohio State is within the Top 25% of all D squads in the country. They too are peaking at this phase of their game. They too are limiting their opponents to less than good shot selection and many fewer points. They too are playing even a slower pace. Vegas has set this betting line low and it is falling from an open of 127.5. Not low enough. Play it down to 124 and feel good about hearing a lot of Doinks and not many put backs with both teams gobbling down defensive rebounds like a Buckeye Cheerleader gobbles down a Kilbasa.