OKLAHOMA STATE --- Well, here it is boys. My largest college basketball release of the season. When I say I’ve been looking forward to this line since the moment OSU upset the University of Oklahoma… that’s an understatement. I, for one, am NOT surprised the Cowboys were able to beat the Sooners for two reasons. First, this was a true neutral floor game with an equal amount of fans for both schools in the Ford Center. It’s less than 100 miles away from Stillwater and the building had plenty of black and orange supporting its Pokes. Second, while OU isn’t playing its best basketball right now, OSU is, having won eight of their last nine games while covering nine straight ATS.
Missouri enters the game off a nice 21-point win vs. an over-matched Texas Tech team that was completely “spent” from the previous night’s comeback win over Texas A&M. The Tigers will get their first “challenge” of the Big 12 tourney tonight in a hostile environment while OSU already has one of those games under their belt… last night’s one-point win over OU. The Tigers clearly have the depth and talent to not only beat the Cowboys but also cover the number, but much like the Sooners, they aren’t playing their best basketball right now. Mizzou has split their last four games, getting beaten by double digits in both of their recent road games (@ Kansas and @ Texas A&M).
And let’s not forget, the last time these two met (back on January 21), Missouri blew a 26-point lead and nearly lost the game, holding on for a 97-95 win. Don’t think that didn’t leave a bad taste in the Cowboys’ mouths, and with this game basically being a home game for the Pokes you can bet the arena will be filled with OSU faithful who will be screaming for their hometown team… and we’ve seen how much the Tigers struggle on the road.
Let’s also keep something else in mind --- Marshall Moses was held scoreless last night vs. Oklahoma and they still managed to pull of the upset. Moses had previously scored in double figures in three of his last four games and was getting better as the season progressed. Don’t expect Moses to get shut out again tonight… and that’s going to pose problems for Missouri’s defense. And speaking of defense, although Missouri has played better than OSU over the season from a defensive standpoint, over the last five games OSU has stepped up its defense and allowed just 69 PPG as opposed to Missouri’s 76 PPG… and that includes allowing just 60 last night to Texas Tech.
The Cowboys are on ATS streaks of 6-0 in their last six vs. teams with a SU winning record, 7-0 ATS following a SU win, 8-0 ATS following an ATS win, and 16-6-2 in their last 24 neutral site games… not to mention the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven H2H meetings. Folks, the writing is on the wall here, the Cowboys not only cover the number, they win the game SU.
MEMPHIS --- Here we basically have another team with “home court advantage” as this game is being played in Memphis, Tennessee… and Memphis just doesn’t lose at home.
The Tigers weren’t impressive in yesterday’s 10-point win over Tulane, but once again they played exceptional defense, limiting the Green Wave to just 41 points in 40 minutes. That’s incredible. This Memphis team has been playing better defense than anyone in the country and it’s going to frustrate the Cougs again this afternoon. Houston comes in off an exhausting 89-85 OT win over UTEP and likely wont’ have the same legs they’re used to having.
And it would scare me to death if I were Houston knowing Memphis didn’t play well yesterday and still managed a 10-point win. The Tigers swept the season series, winning by nine in Houston and 14 at home, and the bottom line here is that this team is just a better overall basketball team. The Tigers have allowed more than 60 points just once in the last ten games and allow, on average, just 57 PPG over the course of the season.
Houston, on the other hand, is the complete opposite, scoring a few more points than Memphis per game, but allowing 11 PPG more and 15 more PPG on the road. Houston has won three straight, but those three wins came against UTEP in OT yesterday and vs. SMU twice. While Memphis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a SU winning record and 4-0 ATS their last four following an ATS loss, Houston is 1-7 in their last eight vs. teams from Conference USA and 1-4 their last five following a SUATS win. Lay the number the the Tigers as I expect an outright burial.
TEXAS --- Back to the Big 12 with the Texas Longhorns as an easy winner over Baylor.
I don’t care what the Bears did to Nebraska or Kansas, I watched this Baylor team two weeks ago, against these same Longhorns, get absolutely destroyed. I know because I backed the Bears as nine-point dogs and that’s what they played like… dogs. No chance they can hang with Texas for a full 40 minutes, no matter how good they appear to be playing right now.
The two wins in the tourney they’ve had are very nice, but anything other than an outright tourney win will put them square in the NIT Tournament. No disrespect meant, but this Baylor team is playing above its head and they just aren’t a very good basketball team. They don’t have the size to match up with Pittman inside and they don’t have anyone who can stick AJ Abrams (no offense to Curtis Jerrells, who is a very solid player).
Texas swept the season series by an average of double digits and should get another solid win this evening in the Ford Center. They weren’t impressive in their 61-58 win over #4 seed Kansas State, telling me they’re due to play some solid basketball tonight. Baylor’s luck is going to run out in Oklahoma City as I don’t believe they have the legs to keep this up and I don’t think their defense is good enough to keep Texas from scoring.
Before the Big 12 Tourney started, the Bears were losers of two straight and 10 of their last 12 games in conference play, COVERING JUST ONE TIME in those 12 games. Baylor hasn’t covered in any of the last 4 H2H meetings with the Longhorns and is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a SU winning record. Baylor might jump out to an early lead, but they will tire in the second half and Texas then runs away with it, winning by 10.
Craig Davis 3-13-09
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