[InTheHole]

Matt Fargo
Vanderbilt v/s Alabama 3/12/2009 7:30:00 pm

Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt

**9** SEC TOURNEY GAME OF THE YEAR **6-0** After starting the season 1-5 in the SEC, Vanderbilt rallied to finish 7-3 over its final 10 gets to get back to even in the conference and that is a big momentum builder heading into the conference tournament. The Commodores are coming off a 75-58 drubbing of Arkansas, their third straight victory that includes a win at LSU that snapped the Tigers' 13-game conference winning streak. Other wins came against SEC East leader South Carolina, another incredibly hot team in 10-6 Auburn as well as this same Alabama team. When the offense gets going, this is a tough team to take down as the Commodores have won seven straight games when surpassing 70 points and that includes a 79-point effort in that Alabama game. The Alabama defense is not a strong one as it has allowed 70.7 ppg on the season including 77.4 ppg away from home and that could very well be the difference once again. Alabama enters this game off a win and it has won four of its last five games to turn around what looked like was going to a disaster of a season after head coach Mike Gottfried resigned. A lot of people have been impressed but I’m still not sold on the Tide despite coming in with some momentum following that buzzer-beating three-pointer at Tennessee on Sunday. Alabama has won two conference road games, snapping a two-year, 18-game SEC road losing streak. That includes Sunday’s win. While this game is not a true road game, it isn’t at home either so winning three straight outside of Tuscaloosa against conference foes is the task at hand and one that just isn’t going to happen. Vanderbilt will enter the SEC tournament on a winning streak for the first time since the 1993-94 season. This is a revenge game for Alabama but it means little for this team as it is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games away from home when revenging a loss where that opponent scored 75 or more points. Vanderbilt is known for its strong home floor edge but it is a solid 9-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral court contests. The fantasy run for the Tide ends on Thursday as the much stronger Commodores takes it going away.

9* Vanderbilt Commodores

Matt Fargo
Kent St. v/s Buffalo 3/12/2009 2:20:00 pm

Predicted Winner: Buffalo

**7** CBB DARK HORSE DANDY ***7-1 START*** The MAC tournament is as wide open as ever this season so the low numbers in Thursday’s four games comes is no surprise. What does come as a surprise is the fact that the 6th seed is favored over the 3rd seed in this game. The Golden Flashes finished the season stronger over the second half so that is the main reason but one that should not affect the line like that. Buffalo head coach Reggie Witherspoon has stressed to his players all season that they’re only as good as their intensity. The Bulls reeled off nine straight wins before a Feb. 15 loss at Ball State launched a four-game losing streak in which their focus wavered. They vowed they’ve learned their lesson. Kent St. is coming off an unimpressive win over Northern Illinois on Tuesday to advance to this one and while it has had a day to rest and prepare, the Bulls have had four days off to get ready for this game. The win against Miami on Sunday gave the Bulls their first ever first-round bye in the MAC Tournament and a share of the league title. The Bulls have never been seeded higher than fifth in the MAC tournament since joining the conference in 1998. That speaks volumes of how good this team is and the way it won on Sunday gives Buffalo a huge boost of confidence. The Bulls came from 13 points down at the half to score the vital victory. Buffalo has won seven road games this season—its most since the 2004-05 campaign when it won eight. The seven road wins are tied with Miami for second most in the MAC this season (Akron has eight). These two teams squared off just a week ago and that game resulted in a six-point win for the Golden Flashes in overtime. That game was decided by free throw shooting as Kent St. scored 12 more points from the line. That was an aberration however as they do not get to the line much. A big edge here for the Bulls is the post play. Either the Golden Flashes control the boards or they are dominated on the boards. Buffalo pulled down 34 offensive rebounds in the two meetings between the teams during the regular season. They have gotten erratic production down low all season. During the first-round game against Northern Illinois, Kent St.'s forwards combined for just 16 of the team's 64 points. That will be the difference and Buffalo moves forward.

7* Buffalo Bulls

Matt Fargo
Cleveland v/s Phoenix 3/12/2009 10:35:00 pm

Predicted Winner: Phoenix

**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION **15-5 RUN** I have gone against Cleveland numerous times on the road lately and will do so once again. The red hot start for the Cavaliers has led to them being overvalued almost every time out, especially in road games. Cleveland started the season 10-4 on the road but since then, it has gone 12-8 which is definitely solid, but not nearly the same. It is 8-12 ATS in those games and is a proven point to the Cavaliers being overvalued in these recent road games and it is definitely overvalued tonight. Phoenix is having a tougher than normal season and it is in the midst of a season long five-game losing streak. That only adds to our value here. Four of those losses came on the road, all against playoff bound teams while the latest came on Tuesday at home against Dallas who is gaining momentum right now. This recent skid has put the Suns five and a half games out of the Western Conference top eight so a run has to start and what better time than now against one of the best teams in the league while getting a ton of home points. A solid strategy in the NBA is to back these home underdogs whose home record is at least identical or close to the road record of the favorite and that is certainly the case here. Phoenix is 19-12 at home this year so it is only a game and a half worse than the Cavaliers road record. The Suns have been home underdogs only twice this season, winning against the Lakers 11 days ago as dogs of roughly the same number. The loss also came against the Lakers but that was way back on November 20th. Phoenix has not been playing bad during this recent stretch, it has just been on the wrong side of some late game breaks. The last four losses have come by six points or fewer. The Suns defense was torched for 122 points last time out against Dallas and the defense is the liability again but a bounce back effort can be expected. Phoenix is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 120 points or more and Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the second half of this season when playing against a team that is allowing 46 percent shooting or worse from the floor. There is no denying that Phoenix has struggled against the better teams this season but this number is too good to pass up. Cleveland has covered 75 percent of its games as a home favorite but just 54.2 percent of its games as a road favorite. This game also sets up as a revenge spot as Phoenix was beaten soundly in Cleveland by 17 points just a month ago. The Suns had 22 assists and an amazing 25 turnovers in that game and the main reason for that was that they were without Steve Nash in that contest. This will be a different result in the desert.

8* Phoenix Suns