Ty Lawson is the engine of the Heels and did not practice Saturday due to a toe injury. This rivalry is huge and I expect him to be in the lineup, but I don't expect him to log as many minutes or to be as effective. Duke brings a 5-game winning streak into this one and the revenge factor. Keeping all of these things in mind, it is clear that Duke is getting too many points here today. Duke won at UNC last season with a team not as good as this one so the Devils will not be lacking confidence. A win also gives Duke a share of the ACC title and that further adds to the motivation of beating the Heels. The Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.

Take the 8.5 points!