[InTheHole]

Always an exciting end to a season with the rivalry match up and much more on the line than NCAA tourney seeding. These two teams really want to be able to have bragging rights during the summer. UNC won by double digits earlier this year at Duke. Since then Duke has struggled to find there identity and have put Schyers at PG to lead the team. UNC has had a couple of bad losses this year where they were not motivated on the defensive end. Not sure motivation will be a problem this game.

Neither of these teams are good ATS with UNC down right horrible 11-16 (4-9 at home) and Duke is 14-14 ATS (7-6 on the road). Recent betting trends:
-Tar Heels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
-Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
-Underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
-Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
-Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Revenge and rivalry always makes me take extra hard look at the underdog. UNC has already locked up the league title and in all likelihood a #1 seed for the big dance. Duke on the other hand has played very well lately and are pushing hard to improve seeding for the big dance. Also they would love to get revenge against rival UNC and keep up the momentum for the ACC tourney.

Sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling and this is definitely one of those cases. Duke keeps it close and has a shot to win it late.

SCORE DUKE 81 - UNC 80