[therber2]

[quote=therber2;1791526]Next possible series.
System is 0-0

1.) Oakland Athletics:

Apr 10 Seattle Mariners -150 8 Lost 4 - 5 Over
Apr 11 Seattle Mariners +100 7.5 Lost 5 - 8 Over
Apr 12 Seattle Mariners -110 8 Lost 0 - 1

Next series: May 1st

No PLAY

[therber2]

Hey I just got an email from John Morrison confirming Oakland is an A bet?!?!?!?under his new RPI system they are supposed to be .01 behind the other team or less and oakland is .03 behind so Mr. Morrison must really be getting desperate for plays.. You know if they get swept again he will use that as the excuse and try to to say it was a no play just like the Sacramento debacle at the beginning of the NBA season

Let him play his system, and we'll play ours. Patience.

[GGPLAYER]

Of the six 4-game series that started Thursday, only two home teams lost - Nationals and Cubs. Nats are filtered out because, well, they suck. The chase play is Cubs this weekend to win one of three against Miami. I'm only placing a bet to win 1/2 unit on Game A because the odds are so steep and I'm a pussy.

Wow this sort of sucks. I was kind of hoping more teams would lose. And yeah I'm seeing the Cubs at -275!! Love Harden but hate the Cubs bull pen. Screw it I'm taking the RL at -130. Go Cubs!

[BouncedCheck]

I didn't know the dolphins had a baseball team. And wouldn't that be a no play according to the rankings.

They're the god damn mother****ing Miami Marlins.

And what rankings are you talking about? I don't use rankings as a filter.

[GGPLAYER]

What a joke. Harden getting lit up like a Chrimas tree in Times Square was not part of the plan! Thanks for those 3.2 innings of work Richy. Cubs bats need to come alive and I'm speaking to you Soriano! Leaving all sorts of runners on the base pads. Is this team even worth chasing??

[Hard10]

My email....

John,

Why is Oakland a play? They have a RPI difference of .028. Shouldn't the A's/Mariners series be a no play?

John's response....

Rest assured that this is a good series to wager on

Best regards
John


WTF....this guy is selling a system but makes plays that doesn't fit the system? What the hell is the point of the system then?

It appears he is desperate for that first win so he can pad his stats, then send out e-mails describing how he blew himself after his victorious pick.
Any thoughts on this reasoning JohnMorr08 ???

[sportsbetwin]

It appears he is desperate for that first win so he can pad his stats, then send out e-mails describing how he blew himself after his victorious pick.
Any thoughts on this reasoning JohnMorr08 ???

No wonder he thinks its a good play - they are the slightest of underdogs which means you will have to take them on the run line at >-200.

Lose 3 chase games at those odds and you will need 26 wins to get square.

No way I'm betting this series.

[BouncedCheck]

WTF....this guy is selling a system but makes plays that doesn't fit the system? What the hell is the point of the system then?

The point is for him to sell his system by scamming people into buying it, which is a complete waste of money, because he's a scumbag.

[BouncedCheck]

Hardin sucked but Cubbies got the job done against those pesky Miami Marlins!

[Hard10]

Hardin sucked but Cubbies got the job done against those pesky Miami Marlins!

Nice win on the 4-game chase BC. The RPI favored the Cubbies too. I fell asleep at the wheel and didn't play it.
I'll send you $125.00 for your "premium" picks if you e-mail the plays a day early !

[BouncedCheck]

Hahahahaha I'll take your money!

[whatisit]

BouncedCheck, what kind of filters are you applying to these plays? I backtracked your system for last 4 years, found a few interesting things. The last two years with no filters, it showed a profit, however 2006 showed a loss overall at the end of year. 2005 was looking good, but then the Angels managed to get swept in a 4 game home series where they were semi-big favorites in each game, which would have completely wiped out any winnings you would have had. They also would have passed any filter you would have placed on the series, but I have only ran across this scenario once. Bos also got swept by Yankees in a 5 game home series before, but they were not big favs in each game so losses weren't as bad.

Also to anyone playing this series, Nationals have been swept each of last two years if I recall correctly, and Royals/Orioles were frequently on the list as well, however, Royals have improved pitching wise this year so they might not be as bad.

[whatisit]

Also something interesting I found was most of the 4 game home series, the home team had a win by the first or 2nd game, only a few went to game 3, and game 4 was rare relatively speaking.

20 out of 128 in 2008 took more than 2 games to end in a win, and an additional 5 in losses

28 out of 125 in 2007 took more than 2 games to end in a win, and an addition 5 in losses

[BouncedCheck]

Actually that Angels series would have been filtered out..... I'll post more later when I have more time.

[BouncedCheck]

Here are the filters I came up with when I first devised this system. It's important to remember that many of these filters are irrelevant early in the season, and I've basically been ignoring them thus far, except for laying off Washington tonight (and tomorrow, and the next day if they lose tomorrow - Washington vs. St. Louis is a NO PLAY this weekend). Many of these filters won't really become relevant until around the third week in May. It's also important to remember I'm playing this system recreationally and I make no guarantees about being undefeated or about coming out ahead at the end of the season. This system is PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK! My only guarantee is that the system will lose at some point, even with effective filters.

I do not know what RPI is, I don't care what RPI is, and I don't think Bill James's pythagorean W-L is an effective tool for gambling. This is BASEBALL, not statistics. Baseball is about more than just numbers. There's no need to take simple mathematical equations such as overall winning percentage and make them complicated. If a team is getting "unlucky" by having fewer wins than their pythagorean W-L indicates they should have, maybe there's a reason for that, such as perhaps the manager is an idiot who doesn't know how to handle a bullpen. When gambling, it might be better to fade a team like that, even when all other factors indicate they might be a good bet. I'm approaching this from the standpoint of an experienced baseball fan, not as an experienced gambler, and not as any kind of mathematical expert. Also, once the filters become relevant, I think you'll find they're relatively conservative and will wipe out a significant number of wins as well as protecting against losses.

do not play the series if any of the following filters apply:

home team wins first game (game "0") of four game series (game 2 is game A, game 3 is game B, game 4 is game C)

home team has home winning percentage under .425

visiting team has overall winning percentage over .645

home team has won 9 of last 10 at home leading into series

home team has lost 9 of last 10 at home leading into series

home team is in last place and visiting team is in first place (including ties) leading into series (regardless of divisions or overall records)

late in season and both teams are eliminated from playoffs

home team has overall winning percentage under .375

home team, leading into series, has no starter with era under 4.80 scheduled to pitch in the three games on which to bet (game "0" doesn't count)

home team hasn't had a day off in the previous 12 days leading into series (meaning potential c game would be on 16th straight day)

two or more of any of the above filters are *almost* applicable

gut feeling, independent of any filters, tells you to steer clear of the series

[BouncedCheck]

Including the Cubs win earlier today, I'm up approximately 7 units since the start of the season. The system, unfiltered, is 11-0 right now, but there were a few series I didn't bet on for whatever reason.

[BouncedCheck]

One more filter I just thought of, since I took a closer look at April's results, is to take the weather into consideration. There were two winning series that won either game A or B and had the final game (that would have been game C) rained out. These were in Chicago and Philadelphia. Obviously there's no need to worry when the games are in a dome.

[jellobiafra]

Well according to the man himself, I guess tonight is a B bet with the A's? Might put a small wager on it. I was on OAK myself last night for reasons unrelated to this system.

[mcbain]

No actually Jello he is celebrating his first victory with a +1.5 bet last night on OAK.

[GGPLAYER]

What a joke. Harden getting lit up like a Chrimas tree in Times Square was not part of the plan! Thanks for those 3.2 innings of work Richy. Cubs bats need to come alive and I'm speaking to you Soriano! Leaving all sorts of runners on the base pads. Is this team even worth chasing??

Well I guess my pep talk woke up the slumbering Cubs because they hit a GS right after I posted my rant. Then their bull pen made me sweat out a 2 run victory and a win on my -1.5 bet. Sort of risky but I got away with it. I also played the Oak game and they blew a 6-1 lead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Washington just sucks.

[jellobiafra]

No actually Jello he is celebrating his first victory with a +1.5 bet last night on OAK.

Oh yeah, forgot about the +1.5. What was that about a -200?

[mcbain]

Yes, something like that.

[DukeJohn]

Including the Cubs win earlier today, I'm up approximately 7 units since the start of the season. The system, unfiltered, is 11-0 right now, but there were a few series I didn't bet on for whatever reason.

Congrats!!!

Nice system... I like those "this is the play" type, makes life easier. Although that gut filter, umm nope, don't like that one, but other than that... I hope it works out great for you... You are kind of your own experiment since you really can't back test it. Well you might be able to, but what a lot of work that would be...

Anyway congrats and BOL to ya.

[GGPLAYER]

SOB....if Wash hols onto this 4-0 lead I'm going to be kicking myself for not sticking with them. Still debating Oak.

[danrman]

the reason why wash won is cause st. louis didnt give a fuk about the game.. they rested pujois cause they have the nl champion phillies at home starting next week.. they may put forth an effort sunday but middle games of series where an opponent has an important series to them coming up are notoriously soft games in the schedule where they tank.. my opinion

[GGPLAYER]

Well that's what I get for giving up. Oak comes back and steals one from Sea a night after blowing one. I stayed away thinking I was doing the "smart" thing.

[MadStu]

I won that game - So when's the next one due?

[BouncedCheck]

the reason why wash won is cause st. louis didnt give a fuk about the game.. they rested pujois cause they have the nl champion phillies at home starting next week.. they may put forth an effort sunday but middle games of series where an opponent has an important series to them coming up are notoriously soft games in the schedule where they tank.. my opinion

That doesn't make any sense to me. You might have a case if the "big upcoming series" was against a same-division opponent who might be fighting them for first place, but what the hell difference does it make to the Cardinals which east team they rack up their victories against? If they would have swept Washington and gotten swept by the Phillies, they'd still be 4-3 combined.

They rested Pujols for one reason and one reason only - it was time to give him a day off. I guarantee if the situation had called for it late in the game, he would have been inserted as a pinch hitter, and maybe kept in the game defensively for a couple innings.

[Dexter]

That doesn't make any sense to me. You might have a case if the "big upcoming series" was against a same-division opponent who might be fighting them for first place, but what the hell difference does it make to the Cardinals which east team they rack up their victories against? If they would have swept Washington and gotten swept by the Phillies, they'd still be 4-3 combined.

They rested Pujols for one reason and one reason only - it was time to give him a day off. I guarantee if the situation had called for it late in the game, he would have been inserted as a pinch hitter, and maybe kept in the game defensively for a couple innings.

sorry dan but i have to agree with this. baseball is a very long season, and the only team i can see the cards getting extra ready for in may would be division rival cubs. larussa did not rest pujols with the phillies in mind.

i love the look ahead angle, but dont think that applied here...

[peterpan19]

dont we have our first play today ?

[therber2]

don't think so. which one?

[cnleaf]

dont we have our first play today ?

It is two-game series, so skip it.

[peterpan19]

oh my god I hate 2 game series...

[Slanina]

Just curious to how many plays this system gets per year? I know it's early in the season, but only 1 play and it was a play that didn't even fit the criteria. Considering it has to be a second series I'm sure it'll start to pick up by mid may.

[Slanina]

LGM - "Impossible to even find a series with a difference of .01"?? Last year there were exactly 44 series with that exact situation and it went 44 - 0. With only 8 B bets.

This is the biggest problem with any 'system'. Everyone plays it a different way. It all has to do with your perception and whether you are true to the system or not. For example Sharpener says that he's lost in the NBA - this year the system is 56-0 based on a "Chase" ... with only ONE C bet.

I'm not sure what you mean by "a team with a better RPI won't get swept". Any 2 teams that are within .01 of eachother can sweep one another in any given series. And that's what we hope for! IE. if the Yanks sweep the Sox - We are taking the Sox in the next series they play vs the Yanks.

And nevermind. I found the answer myself. You'd think I would of looked first.