Dunkel Lines

Are the Dunkel Lines pretty close to being right on?

You might be able to grind a small profit vs. openers if you know what you're doing.

awful in nfl. 45% ATS

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nflresults.php

I prefer Sagarin

I havent attempted to analyze Dunkel's data for NBA or CBB, but I have data from StatFox and Pomeroy and Sagarin. None of these are world beaters as far as ATS results are concerned. Here is what I have for January.

I have arbititrarly used a difference of 3.1 Pts. as a differencial from the "posted line". This is in addition to whatever each has allowed for HCA. Also note, that I ONLY considered plays against the spread.

StatFox: 110 Plays, record 57-53, 51.8%
Sagarin: 100 Plays, record 54-46, 54.0%
Pomeroy: 98 Plays, record 52-46, 53.6%

I have noticed some correlations that may help. If you combine a couple of pairings a higher % results. Using the same criteria as above, but requiring that BOTH agree on the same play, the results improve:

Pomeroy and Sagarin: 40 Plays, record 22-18, 55%
Sagarin and StatFox: 32 Plays, record 19-13, 59.4%

*- I did not track the combination of Pomeroy and Statfox in my data

As you can see, certain correlations reveal a higher %. If I were better at Excel, I'd probably find a way to import Dan Curry and Dunkel's work into a spreadsheet. I think there exists some correlations that could be expoited.

Sorry to stray from the OP's question, but I could see where he was headed and thought this may be useful.

Good Luck on your action...

Hey I stubled acoss this and was wondering if anyone had any spread sheets on sagarin this YTD was thinkg of doing a lil project
if not does anyone know weher to find old ratings the only ones onm the site are the current weeks

they usually get priced into the market with far more weight than they should carry, and I love them for it

checked them out for college baskettball last year for a while. didn't help at all don't even bother looking at the lines.

Yea I wasn't going to use just dunkel to make play but I was more or less taking the idea that screaming pain had and changing it a lil... Instead of picking games to rating indexes have in comin I would take the weekly team ratings of a few indexes and make it one rating equally balancing the ratings if each team then using those rating generated to make plays

Or at least track it for the season