NFL HalfTime Middling System
The NFL halftime 'middling' system was introduced by On3 and is NOT my system. I'm starting a new thread in order to not clog up the JM NFL thread. If anyone would like to take the reins and keep an official record that would be preferable, because I don't have time to post very often. The system also needs to be backtested if anyone would be willing to take the plunge on that monster. Thanks again On3 for sharing the system. Let's try and keep the discussion solely in this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
on3
while we are waiting around, ive been keeping an eye out for a system that a few friends of mine use. i havent backtested it myself, but i take it on good faith that they are not misleading me of the success rate being around 66%.
the record of it so far this year is 7-1, and is not a chase system, but a half time 'middling' system, in which it fades the middle opportunity that half time lines provide. the line has to have a 13 point middle or more for it to be eligible.
example: yesterdays TNF game bears/packers o/u of 51 spread of -5. half time score was 13-0 packers. if the line stayed true, we would see a half time o/u of 38 and bears favored by -8. the line was o/u of 24 and packers -1.5. the o/u has a 14 point middle (eligible for a play) and the spread has a 9.5 middle (not eligible). since we fade the middle (saying that the middle WILL NOT occur) we take UNDER 24 as our half time bet.
i will not be tracking this, but i thought some of you might find it helpful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
on3
few more examples:
denver/pitt game: original line DEN -2.5 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 10-7 Steelers leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: DEN -5.5 o/u 28.5
actual halftime line: DEN PK and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Steelers -3 to Den -2.5 ONLY 5.5 diff. the o/u middle is now 38.5 to 45.5 ONLY 7 diff.).
differential for spread is 5.5 and differential for o/u is 7. both are not eligible and no play is made.
carolina/tampa bay game: original line CAR -3 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 13-0 Bucs leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: CAR -16 o/u 32.5
actual halftime line: CAR -3 and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Bucs -10 to Car -3, 13pt diff. the o/u middle is now 34.5 to 45.5, 11pt diff.).
the system is saying that this middle WILL NOT occur, and the only way for that to happen is if the Bucs cover the +3 in the 2h.
differential for spread is 13 and differential for o/u is 11. spread is eligible, o/u is not and one play is made. the play was Bucs +3 2h (this play was the only loser last week using the system).
System went 6-1 in week 1. and 1-0 on the Thursday night game.