Round 4 aussie rules early predictions...

Ok guys, this week it happens...Studying lines as we speak for upcoming weekend games...

Please share what you like/dont like so much and thoughts on picks etc...All numbers now up at bet365

GWS +89.5

Couple of angles here.

1) Fading crows after humiliating loss to Hawks. Exposed the team as lacking confidence in front of goal. Like a disease, this lack of condifence will spread throughout the team in weeks to come imo.

Hope i am wrong but given the crows past in similar situations there is sufficient reasoning to think they will fail again, esp given the amount of wins crows have had thus far this year already.

Variance due to kick in with this team soon...

2) Truly believe that coach Kevin Sheedy sometime in preseason made a pact with the players not to lose a game by 3 figures.

Yeah GWS lost by 81 points at home against the in form eagles but the Crows are headed in the opposite direction to west coast at this time of the season and just think 89 points is way to much.

May even wait for a alternate line and get GWS +74 for around +200ish...

Carlton -37.5

The Essendon Bombers unbeaten record is misleading and flatters them BIGTIME...Expecting the in-form Carlton Blues to stomp on these guys in a borderline sadistic manner and have the number covered by halftime.

This number WILL climb. Will also wait and get a alternate line of around -52.5 for this one.

Gold Coast +17.5

The local derby here will be a struggle of the minnows with Gold Coast beginning to prove they can hold their own.

Having already beaten the Lions last year by 8 points expect this to be another close one. May even be worth a sprinkle on the Suns ML here...

Fire away guys :cheers:

All I can say is don't go too hard this week!

Don't mind that blues line, will wait for a few points totals, and may have to look elsewhere to find good value this week with a few unusual bets.

Do these lines move much during week??

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

Do these lines move much during week??

Yes, some will move up to 8 points for sure.

I've noticed this year the lines have moved more than most seasons.

I don't count GWS and the Suns games, because the spreads are so big that they are bound to fly all over the place.

Last year, lines would usually move a max of 4-5 points and many would close very close to the opener.

I notice no real line service for AFL