White House in SHOCK
White House in SHOCK
obama will win
the rest of this is all theatrics
Nobody will vote for Obama, we want to go back to blaming the white man.
Not to get off subject, but more importantly, Milwaukee Mike, you really think Sakara has a shot at winning tonight? You putting $ on him?
Saloon
we can bet on elections no saloon
Getting out of the Republican primaries is going to work wonders for Romney.
Republicans and Independents now have a clear choice.
:an_clap:
Obama backers SBR Sportsbook SPECIAL
If gas prices don't mysterious drop to under $3.00 a gallon... by September/October. Obama has no chance. And he knows this.
:lmao::lmao: 7 months away..
What a dumb old man.:lmao:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html
Personally I think the USAToday is the best poll in this group. It has Obama up 4 points.
John , tracking polls are real fluid... Like the one in OP
That USA poll is 3 weeks old
I cant wait until obama wins this november, maybe this old man will be so embarrased he'll start posting his sheep-indunced threads in the P/E forum..:lmao:
Obama -190 at betfair:
http://politicszone.betfair.com/zone...1311313&pcts=1
Prediction: Zimmerman not guilty verdict reached a couple days before election. Blacks will be to busy rioting to vote. Riots escalate after Obama loses a couple of days later.
Fordham University has rated the National Polls from the 2008 Campaign's final Presidential Election results. The 23 polls rated averaged giving Obama a 7.52% victory margin, and the actual victory margin was 6.15%. The top polls were Rasmussen and Pew tied for first.
Here is their list:
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
White House in SHOCK
Congrats on finding some outlier poll. Odds haven't budged at intrade.
So far the odds are not tracking the recent polls. You have to love that if you are a Obama guy.
Now that the Republican primary is a forgone conclusion we can start the real campaign. Obama defeated McCain on a mainstream moderate platform to change Washington politics. I guess he succeeded because its never been worse. This time around he will not be able to blame Bush or claim he is the guy of change. He is vulnerable and far more left than a lot of moderates were expecting. Plus, the Republicans have wheeled out a moderate and that will have a lot of swing voters who voted Obama last time to reconsider. By mid July or sooner this will be a Pick'em.
I'm not sure what results from 2008 prove. 30% of adults now do not have landlines, so his sample is right off the bat eliminating 30% of people, that he purports to make up by using internet surveys, which honestly, is that a joke? In 2004 the figure was 3.4% that were cell phone only.
I'm not saying that Rasmussen was not in the past accurate(although he was on average 4.2% biased in favor of Republican candidates in 2010), what I am saying is that how can you 4 years from 2008 when landline versus cell phone usage has insanely shifted from landline to cell phone still be using the same method and expecting the results to be accurate at all.
Rasmussen also only conducts their polls between 5 pm and 9 pm on weeknights and they only speak to the first person they get on the line.
For a good read on this I suggest:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/...udes-more.html
Honestly in this day and age of large amounts of cell phone use I would trust a Fox News' poll(which is not actually conducted by Fox News) much more than I would trust an effectively landline only poll like Rasmussen.
Also btw, Romney leading Obama by 5% is not outside of the margin of error of the poll because margin of error is +/-X, unless the poll's margin of error is less than 2.5% than a 5% lead is not outside of it. Rasmussen reports a +/-3% margin of error for his sample of 1,500 LVs, but the daily tracking is taken with three day rolling average surveys of 500 LVs. The 500 LV count is not as accurate as the 1,500 but pretending that aggregating 3 500 LV polls is the same as one 1,500 LV poll, it is it would mean that the real numbers say that Romney is winning by as many as 11% and losing by as much as 1%. So he is not winning outside the margin of error.
we have baseball games going for GOD SAKES
BTW-- margin of error could be Mit by +9 :lmao:
If the margin of error is +/-3% then the radius of error is 6%, 6% up or 6% down, So if the reported figure is +5% then the 95% confidence range is +11% to -1%.
This is because polls don't just have one variable they have two. So say I take a poll, one candidate, candidate X, receives 50% and the other candidate, candidate Y, receives 40%, if the margin of error is +/-3% then the candidates true number with 95% confidence would be 53% to 47%, on the other hand the candidate who receives 40% could be 43% to 37%
So you would say, that poll says candidate X is winning by 10%, but he could be winning 53% to 37% or he could be winning 47% to 43%, so the most with 95% confidence you can say candidate X could be winning by is 16%, and the least is 4% +/-6% either way.
Similarly in our scenario Romney is winning by 5%, so 6% up, 11%, 6% down -1%, so within the true margin of error for a two candidate race, he could still statistically be losing with 95% confidence within the margin of error for a two candidate poll, so he is not winning outside what the margin of error means for statistic purposes.
lol do you really believe you still have a choice? your votes won't matter, this whole thing is set up so that obama gets re-elected. just watch...
LoL @ Assumssen & Faux Noos Polls !!!!!!!!!!! The worst rated polls from the 2010 Elections !!!!!!!!!!!
2010 Mid-terms... The biggest positive swing for Repubs country wide in 75 years , right?
2009 - Inauguration
Full blown recession
2 Wars Going Full Steam
Auto industry in absolute crisis
Bin Laden on the loose
A short 3 Years later
Economy on the mend (What's the dow up since Jan 2009?)
1 War ended, the other on a time frame to wind down
Auto industry stabilized
Bin Laden DOA
Compound this with the fact that republicans can't seem to table a highway bill without wanting a vaginal probe or abortion video mandate, and Mitt has his work cut out for him.
Will all these evangelicals who consider Mormanism to be a "cult" really get that fired up for him?
muldoon , you would think Obama should be up by 15-20%
stupid fat Americans