Nov 06 - 5:00 AM SOMEONE OTHER THAN BARACK OBAMA TO WIN US ELECTION
1 OBAMA WILL WIN -165
2 SOMEONE OTHER THAN OBAMA +140
Max wager 300 points
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Nov 06 - 5:00 AM SOMEONE OTHER THAN BARACK OBAMA TO WIN US ELECTION
1 OBAMA WILL WIN -165
2 SOMEONE OTHER THAN OBAMA +140
Max wager 300 points
change
How is that a special? Spot on with the market (see Intrade 60.5%). Make it a pk em.
300 point max? come on:lmao:
John, is this your subtle way of telling us you're planning an assassination attempt?
How long will this line stay up?
Thoughts on d2bets statement that it's not so special? What are other books offering?
Doesn't sound like a special to me
What line does 5/11 translate to? That's what Bovada had him at on March 28th
Yeah, that is a gift!!
It should be -1000 because there isn't a snowball chance in hell of him getting removed from office.
Even if u know obama will win not worth getting points stuck for 7 months. At least not to me
great odds here i want a max of this in october boss :highfive:
how can this moron be -220??? are there really that man idiots who will vote for him.....unreal...
good choice putting a max of 300 on it. people would be putting 10k on obama, theres no way in hell either republican candidate is going to beat obama. just look at all the states that really matter, they are all turning in obamas favor. mitt rommney is loosing women by what 20 plus points?
in recent national polls rommney has been down 54-42. its going to be an ass kicking.
don't know about the senate and congress, it sads me that republicans have used lies and fear mongouring to get everyone scared over this health care package. when this health care reform really is a conservative idea. it still gives it to the open market health care companies, and it has the individual mandate which was a republican idea! every republican supported this idea in the 90s. they didn't like free riders. rommney said he supported the mandate, to get rid of the free riders and for everyone to support themselves.
but now since its obama idea, its the government coming after you!
i voted for McCain last year, biggest mistakes of my life. Can't support the republicans after watching their debates where they are cheering for people dying who don't have health coverage, and booing guy soldiers, for a party who wants to ban gay marriage, shut down planned parent hood, and go back to when no women can get abortions even with rape and incest.
i don't support obama on numerous issues, but seeing that so many people support a guy like rick santorum makes me think america is doomed, and really makes me want to throw up.
Holy Shit!
Romney about to be the Prez...
Anybody that has been around longer than a month knows what I mean...
Wait. Watch. Listen.Quote:
in recent national polls rommney has been down 54-42. its going to be an ass kicking.
By the end of this month or early next the Republicans will have a nominee. The swing voters of the general electorate will finally start paying attention to the upcoming election. The polls(and odds) will have some dramatic swings imo. Personally I see this one similar to Bush v Gore. Hope the chad issue is resolved because it could come down to a Florida or Ohio. After July I doubt Obama will be priced higher than -150, could be a pick'em by election day.
Free money :shades: Thanks john :cheers:
300 max? Alright then... Ez game
Morons think politics is decided by we the ppl. Romney is just a good actor but Obama is a great actor
They are both stiffs. Just by the candidates the Republicans trotted out this go round it appears they are concentrating on 2016. Obama hasn't lived up to his promises when campaigning but is a country club, dockers wearing, grey poupon eating guy going to do any better? He makes Gore and Kerry look like the life of the party.
Jon cheers!
If -165 on Obama is so good to the point that flea gamblers are going to put 10,000 betpoints on it, why don't you open up an account at Intrade and load up on Obama at a better price of -150?
All of the people who say betting on Obama at -165 is like free money are die-hard liberal democrats who will be voting for him in November no matter what he says or what he does and their opinions regarding the chances Obama has to win the upcoming election are totally WORTHLESS.
Obama's price has been stuck in the 58-62 range for several weeks on heavy volume and that price is the best indicator of what Obama's chances are to win the election.
Obama's price of -150 is similar to an NFL team or an NBA team being a 3 point favorite. Obama is indeed favored to win but plenty of 3 point dogs win in the NFL.
I think the most telling thing though is Romney's lack of likeability, which is huge, and I'm not really sure what he can do to make it better. Certainly going negative isn't going to help with that. People have had almost 4 years to make up their mind about Obama, but they are just now evaluating Romney, and it seems the more they hear the less they like. It is possible that the economy goes back into the gutter, which could swing some things, but the rhetoric of the campaign has really hurt Romney's chances, not helped them. He's completely turned off women voters, especially in the swing states that are going to decide the election as neverstoppers has said.
Also remember that Obama's probable voting numbers are greater than 50% right now. Yes his actual approval rating is in the high 40%s but remember, that that includes people that don't approve of his job because he's not liberal enough(imagine the thought of that to a conservative) and those people will probably bite the bullet and vote for him if it looks like not doing so will cost him the election. People still remember Florida 2000.
Shaudius,
This upcoming election is not about Mitt Romney or any of the republican candidates. Its about Barack Obama.
On election day November 2008, the voters made quite a statement electing Barack Obama in pretty much a landslide and handing congressional control back over to the democrats as well. Its fair to say the voters had a strong message to send and sent every republican they could home packing and I'm sure you would agree.
Fast forward 2 short years, with the democrats in complete control and the voters did a complete 180 degree U-turn and gave the democratic party the THRASHING of their lives. This complete voter turnaround was caused by Barack Obama and the democratic party's decision to socialize our country's medical care system behind closed doors against the will of the American people and without a single republican vote of support.
Socialized medicine has been on the table since the early 1960's and the issue has been hotly contested ever since. About 20 years ago (the last time democrats had full control), Hillary tried to shove socialized medicine through and the voters were so outraged, they handed back control of congress to the republicans for the first time in 50 years.
If 1994 was a presidential election year, Bill Clinton would have known full well he would have gotten creamed due to what Hillary tried to do. However, knowing he had no other choice, he worked quite well with his now republican controlled congress and the country was doing very well heading into the 1996 election which we won in a landslide.
Compare years 3 and 4 of the Clinton administration to that of Barack Obama and its easy to see that Obama failed where Clinton succeeded.
The voters told the republican party to put the handcuffs on President Obama and the democrats and thats exactly what they have done.
Shaudius, I don't know if you possess the ability to neutrally evaluate Barack Obama and the democratic party you so strongly support, but do your best to try right now:
Imagine how irate you would be if President Bush successfully ended Medicare or Social Security with the help of a republican controlled congress and did so without a single vote of support from the democrats?
What exactly has Barack Obama and the democratic party done since November 2010 when the democrats got thrashed so badly? Have they done anywhere near enough to overcome the huge voter resentment from 2 short years ago? I think not.
While you probably feel differently, the vast majority of Americans oppose ObamaCare and as long as the republicans and Mitt Romney keep things focused on how Obama and the democrats shoved it through, I don't see how the democrats can possibly defend themselves. Ben Nelson and the "Cornhusker kickback", Mary Landrieu and a host of other bribes that were paid off by the democratic party to garner the last few votes needed to pass ObamaCare and its easy to see how badly the whole thing WREAKS.
i usually agree with you but you are so wrong on this issue.I don't like obama care and am opposed tothem trying to take the 2nd admendment away. But romney is obama without the color. I won a thousand when mccain ran against obama. This will be even easier. Everytime romney is put on the spot he spits the bit, muttering like a drunken sailor.
As much as you want this all to be true, doesn't make it so. Elections are both about the incumbent, as well as the candidate running against them. Look at Wisconsin, Scott Walker is polling behind Russ Finegold(who isn't running) but ahead of all sorts of other challengers.
Furthermore, the Democrats regained Congress in 2006, not 2008.
You also seem to think that people are one issue voters. Yes the Republicans retook control of the house during the 2010 midterm election, but you seem to think that people are incapable of separating issues. Why if this were the case would 60% of people favor repeal of the Affordable Care Act but in the same poll give Obama at 52-42 lead over Mitt Romney?
Additionally, when asked who is responsibility for the problems in Washington, voters overwhelmingly choose Congress, not the President. Congressional approval is at something like 10-12%, while the President's approval is around 45-50%.
You seem to think that there is this widespread hatred of Obama and Democrats, but its really not the case. Most voters are not full of such vitriol and hate. There are 30-40% of people who will not vote for Obama no matter what, there are 30-40% of people who will vote for Obama no matter what. The race is decided by the 20% in the middle.
Obama is currently overwhelmingly winning the middle, especially in key battleground states, and is leading by slightly outside the margin of error in these same battleground states, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Could this all change in 7 months, sure. But I don't think hammering the same negatives about Obama that have been harped on for three and a half years is gonna do it. Most people in the middle vote for a candidate, not against one. The people that vote against a candidate have already made up their mind.
Technically, the senate was tied 49-49 but since the remaining 2 were independents that caucus with the democrats, I'll concede the error.
I'm assuming you followed the 2008 and 2010 elections as closely as you're following the upcoming election. The turnaround in voter sentiment from 2008 to 2010 was incredible and since democrats had full control of all 3 chambers of government, you can't blame the turnaround on anything major the republicans did as they had very little power.
The 2010 democratic THRASHING speaks volumes and I believe ObamaCare and how it was rammed through was the reason for the overwhelming change in voter sentiment from 2008. If you disagree, what do you think was the cause?This is accurate for the most part.Quote:
here are 30-40% of people who will not vote for Obama no matter what, there are 30-40% of people who will vote for Obama no matter what. The race is decided by the 20% in the middle.
I don't believe any of this to be accurate. I have come across all sorts of ridiculous polls showing Obama with 20+ point leads with women and 15+ point lead overall. I take no stock in polls and instead like to see what sites like Intrade have to say where money drives the market as opposed to polls that will always be biased in favor of the individual or entity performing the poll.Quote:
Obama is currently overwhelmingly winning the middle, especially in key battleground states, and is leading by slightly outside the margin of error in these same battleground states, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.
If Obama had overwhelming leads in the middle and especially in battleground states, he wouldn't be trading anywhere near his current price of 60%. Since the MSM is overwhelmingy biased in favor of the democratic party, I don't find it surprising at all that most polls wind up being biased in favor of the democrats as well.
In the months leading up to the 2010 mid-term election, most polls predicted a loss of 10-20 house seats for the democrats. On election day, these polls were predicting a loss of 30-35 house seats with a 40 seat loss considered to be a worst case scenario.
The final tally was a 65 seat loss in the house for the democrats which was exactly what Intrade predicted it would be (The 65+ house seat loss for the democrats was trading around 45% on election day morning 2010). FYI, the worst case scenario of a 40 seat loss predicted by the democrats was trading at 98% on election day morning.
Cutting through all the B.S., I can't find anything substantial enough that the democrats have done since they got thrashed in the 2010 mid-terms to justify some of these blow out polling numbers in favor of Obama being released.
Since you clearly prefer Obama over Romney, I can understand why you search for these polls as a form of mental masturbation so to speak. However, if you want to really see where Obama stands, check out the Intrade market where all political biases are thrown to the curb.
This line could start creeping. Guys who want Obama need to get their bets in.