Masters "makes the cut" parlay

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04-04-12, 10:15 AM
blackbeSSt

Masters "makes the cut" parlay

gimme some gimmes.....besides the woods and mickelson and mcilroy
04-04-12, 10:19 AM
Al Masters

Nice thread title.:cheers:

SergioGarcia,Nick Watney andJim Furyk
04-04-12, 10:24 AM
blackbeSSt

Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Masters

Nice thread title.:cheers:

SergioGarcia,Nick Watney andJim Furyk

not bad. nets about +210.
04-04-12, 10:31 AM
bswagos

Man BI won't let me parlay them!
04-04-12, 10:32 AM
blackbeSSt

Quote:

Originally Posted by bswagos

Man BI won't let me parlay them!

5dimes for the win :an_dance:
04-04-12, 10:43 AM
milwaukee mike

Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Masters

Nice thread title.:cheers:

SergioGarcia,Nick Watney andJim Furyk

i think that would be a terrible parlay. one of those guys is almost certainly going to miss the 45 person cut.
04-04-12, 10:49 AM
mugsey15

Sergio won't make the cut.
04-04-12, 11:02 AM
sweep

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbeSSt

gimme some gimmes.....besides the woods and mickelson and mcilroy

Quote:

Originally Posted by sweep

2012 Masters Play:

Pick: Bo Van Pelt (+8000)

Should be an interesting and eventfull week at Augusta with all the hype surrounding Tiger and his recent win at Bay Hill. Pretty bold statement Tiger made there in the shadows of Hank Haneys book release/bashing of the worlds best golfer ever.

I'm throwing the favorite out here as well as a laundry list of others and giving the nod to old Bo Van. Quietly putting together a solid year, I feel this guy has value. The soon to be 37 year old has 4 top tens in his last 5 starts while missing the cut only once this year shooting a 76 on day one at the Farmers Insurance Open back in January.

Tee time for Bo is 8:45am Thursday and Friday, paired with Martin Kaymer and Adam Scott. I think the pairing with these 2 guys will work to his advantage as he surely will look to show the young guns he is a force on tour this year. I can see him sitting top 15 going into the weekend and making a run at the leader board come Saturday/Sunday.

One last note, he leads the PGA in strokes gained putting:grrr:

Best of luck to all and enjoy:cheers:

Sweep

Better throw him in somewhere...........
04-04-12, 11:15 AM
3PtShooter

k stanley...m wilson....p lawrie
04-04-12, 12:13 PM
blackbeSSt

Quote:

Originally Posted by sweep

Better throw him in somewhere...........

good number on him at -245 to make cut.
04-04-12, 01:00 PM
Tsonga

too bad pinnacle doesn't let you do parlays on the 'make the cut' ....that would be nice.
04-04-12, 01:09 PM
milwaukee mike

and as a side note i think parlays on "make the cut" are an inherently bad idea, they are negatively correlated.

with only 45 people making the cut (except for ties/others are within 10 shots) when each of your picks makes the cut that is one less spot for the others in the parlay
04-04-12, 01:56 PM
dfberger23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Masters

Nice thread title.:cheers:

SergioGarcia,Nick Watney andJim Furyk

Terrible parlay. I expect Furyk to miss the cut and I wouldn't be surprised if Sergio does.
04-04-12, 09:58 PM
darko3131

I've had terrible luck with makes the cut plays, can't see a parlay being the way to go. The vig is usually pretty ugly with these.
04-04-12, 10:02 PM
rm18

sucker bets, make the cut parlays are inversely correlated
04-04-12, 11:42 PM
valaub04

sucker or not, mine is:

donald, woods, rory, mickelson, westwood, mahan, schwartzel. pays only a little over 2.1x. schwartzel worries me.

if you want to go the other route and parlay guys to MISS, I think Harrington +120 to miss, Poulter @ +155 and Stenson @ +125 would pay about 11.6x.

one thing that makes this tourney much different in this play is that you start with 96 players instead of 144. you also have amateurs and some old former champions who have virtually no shot to make the cut. by my projections it looks like 73-75 guys vying for 46 spots. going back to 2001 (and throwing out the 2007 tourney as that was some of the worst weather to ever visit the masters) we're looking at the cut being around 147 (+3) with 48-49 guys making the cut. also if you don't have someone jump out LOW for the first two rounds you've got the 10 shot rule. (though I do think someone defintely gets to at least -7 which would cover the projected 147 regardless.
04-05-12, 01:13 AM
Optional

:peace:
04-05-12, 01:17 AM
Al Masters

Quote:

Originally Posted by milwaukee mike

i think that would be a terrible parlay. one of those guys is almost certainly going to miss the 45 person cut.

Then don't bet it Mike. :grrr:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mugsey15

Sergio won't make the cut.

Straight bet up to 500 points... i say yes you say no.... send me the amount of points you wish to bet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfberger23

Terrible parlay. I expect Furyk to miss the cut and I wouldn't be surprised if Sergio does.

I like Furyk to do well this weekend and Sergio to hang in there,

Give me 7 to 5 and i'll take Furyk to make the cut any amount to 500 points.

Send points to make it a play.
04-05-12, 01:56 AM
Balco10

Lee West wood, Adam Scott, and Luke Donald.
04-05-12, 07:51 AM
blackbeSSt

call me a HUGE sucker:

A.Scott makes the cut -330
B.Watson makes the cut -295
C.Schwartzel makes the cut -400
H.Mahan makes the cut -350
J.Day makes the cut -300
J.Rose makes the cut -350
S.Stricker makes the cut -335

pays about +500ish :cheeleade
04-05-12, 09:23 PM
Tsonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbeSSt

call me a HUGE sucker:

A.Scott makes the cut -330
B.Watson makes the cut -295
C.Schwartzel makes the cut -400
H.Mahan makes the cut -350
J.Day makes the cut -300
J.Rose makes the cut -350
S.Stricker makes the cut -335

pays about +500ish :cheeleade

Adam Scott has some work to do but can make it....Hopefully Mahan comes through for you...I think your real trouble is with Jason Day - i see him missing. Yes, I realize 1 round it through, but i wasn't confident with him going in and i think he is your biggest weakness here.
04-05-12, 09:23 PM
Tsonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balco10

Lee West wood, Adam Scott, and Luke Donald.

might only get 1/3
04-06-12, 02:13 AM
billysink

This guy here lays it out there for all of you. Great advice.

So what do the degens do with it? Add more golfers to the parlay of course.

I think you lost them with the big words Mike. "Negatively correlated" may be a bit much for the posting community.

This site ******* cracks me up.
04-06-12, 02:31 PM
blackbeSSt

well it looks like stricker is gonna fukk me over here. but even if he doesn't, according to live chat at 5dimes, a WD is considered missing the cut. so jason day seems to have fukked this up for me by WD'ing :banghead:
04-06-12, 03:20 PM
blackbeSSt

someone help me out here. i seem to be missing the rule that states if a player withdrawals regardless of his score its considered a loss

Golf Wagering

Four and five round golf events must go a minimum of 54 holes and three round golf events must go a minimum of 36 holes for tournament match-ups and futures to have action.

Golf events must be completed within 7 days of the scheduled conclusion of the event for tournament match-ups and futures to have action.

Adjusted tournament winner wagers have no action if no further golf is played because of a shortened event.

In match-ups and futures, wagers on golfers NOT teeing off to begin an event will be graded no action unless otherwise noted. Wagers will not be refunded on any option where "all golfers have action" is listed.

Wagers to finish in the top 5, top 10, best in a group of golfers, or any other option where there may be multiple winners: may result in some golfers tied for a position.

Wagers on golfers NOT teeing off in 2nd, 3rd, 4th round, or adjusted tournament match-ups, will be graded no action.

All round match-ups have action regardless of the date the golfers begin/complete the round.

Any single round matchup, where it is determined golfers are playing on different courses for that round, will be graded no action.

The golfer to complete more holes in a tournament or single round match-up is the winner. If golfers both complete the same number of holes, the golfer with the lower score is the winner.

A golf round is not official until the player's scorecard is signed at the end of a round. If a player is disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard, the player will be considered withdrawn on the hole with the scoring dispute. All holes completed prior to the scoring discrepancy will count for wagering purposes.

A golf match-up may have a stroke handicap. If the number is positive (+), then you subtract the strokes from the golfer's score. If the number is negative (-), then add those strokes to the golfer's score. The golfer with the lower score after the strokes are applied is the winner.

"Two on One" match-ups involve two golfers' scores being matched up against a single golfer's score. Rules for regular match-ups apply to determine the winner. The lone golfer must defeat both paired golfers' individual scores to win the wager. If the lone golfer and the best individual score from the paired group is a tie, then the wager is a push. Only one of the paired golfers needs to defeat the lone golfer to win the wager.

For golf Three-Way match-ups (also known as "three-balls"), in cases where there is a three way tie, all wagers will be graded no action.

If two golfers tie for a win in Three-Way match-ups, dead heat rules will apply to all wagers on both golfers or against both golfers. Tournament and final round matchups do not include playoff holes (unless otherwise specified).
04-06-12, 04:47 PM
aggieshawn

You lose if the guy WD. Doesn't happen often with guys above the cut line.

PS. I got Phil at 1.8 odds to make the cut after the first round. Scored big time.
04-06-12, 05:28 PM
Optional

Quote:

Originally Posted by Al Masters

Nice thread title.:cheers:

SergioGarcia,Nick Watney andJim Furyk

Congrats on the winner Mr. Masters.

And to the losers.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by milwaukee mike

i think that would be a terrible parlay. one of those guys is almost certainly going to miss the 45 person cut.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mugsey15

Sergio won't make the cut.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfberger23

Terrible parlay. I expect Furyk to miss the cut and I wouldn't be surprised if Sergio does.

Quote:

Originally Posted by billysink

This guy here lays it out there for all of you. Great advice.

So what do the degens do with it? Add more golfers to the parlay of course.

I think you lost them with the big words Mike. "Negatively correlated" may be a bit much for the posting community.

This site ******* cracks me up.

:lmao::lmao::lmao:
04-06-12, 05:32 PM
Optional

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbeSSt

well it looks like stricker is gonna fukk me over here. but even if he doesn't, according to live chat at 5dimes, a WD is considered missing the cut. so jason day seems to have fukked this up for me by WD'ing :banghead:

Hmmm... pretty certain that they have graded a withdrawal as a loss for a friend last year, when betting in a player to Miss The Cut.
04-06-12, 05:45 PM
blackbeSSt

Quote:

Originally Posted by aggieshawn

You lose if the guy WD. Doesn't happen often with guys above the cut line.

PS. I got Phil at 1.8 odds to make the cut after the first round. Scored big time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Optional

Hmmm... pretty certain that they have graded a withdrawal as a loss for a friend last year, when betting in a player to Miss The Cut.

well fukk me then. not to say that he wouldn't have stayed above, but this fukkin stings to have a 7 player +510 parlay go to shit cause of a WD :banghead:
04-06-12, 05:47 PM
Optional

Sorry for bad info Blackbe... just checked with my friend and I was wrong about them grading it that way for him.
04-06-12, 05:57 PM
Ez Money 77

Quote:

Originally Posted by aggieshawn

You lose if the guy WD. Doesn't happen often with guys above the cut line.

PS. I got Phil at 1.8 odds to make the cut after the first round. Scored big time.

I bet Phil +2500 for the tournament after round one.
04-06-12, 06:22 PM
blackbeSSt

Quote:

Originally Posted by Optional

Sorry for bad info Blackbe... just checked with my friend and I was wrong about them grading it that way for him.

so they DIDNT grade a loss for him?
04-06-12, 06:28 PM
Optional

He doesn't recall what I'm talking about. So I'm assuming I am wrong.
04-06-12, 06:29 PM
blackbeSSt

Quote:

Originally Posted by Optional

He doesn't recall what I'm talking about. So I'm assuming I am wrong.

HA! theres no clear cut answer in their rules about it is what bugs me
04-06-12, 11:02 PM
Al Masters

Quote:

Originally Posted by Optional

Congrats on the winner Mr. Masters

Thanks Opt. :cheers:
04-06-12, 11:07 PM
Al Masters

Quote:

Originally Posted by milwaukee mike

i think that would be a terrible parlay. one of those guys is almost certainly going to miss the 45 person cut.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mugsey15

Sergio won't make the cut.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfberger23

Terrible parlay. I expect Furyk to miss the cut and I wouldn't be surprised if Sergio does.

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