2012 MLB Season with John Ryan

Welcome to the MLB edition of the continuing tjhreads with John Ryan. As has been the case with my other threads, I hope that we all can develop and learn more about the game of baseball and all of the infinte handicapping techniiques for this sport. I can't think of another sport that has so many different statistical results and subsequent and dependent rankings.

Love the movie Money Ball and they should have won at least one Oscar for their efforts. It may be interesting to learn what Bill James had told all of us a long time ago and how it was followed and extended by Billy Beane. I think it is still used to this day, but not made public..

Bottom line is,and I have seen this, experienced this, there is absolutely NO WAY any scout can profject that a player under the age of 20 possesses all five of the scouting traits. That was the case with Billy and you can see throughout the movie how he thought back adn wondered what if I had gone to Stanford.

I do beleive baseball at all levels of play requires more team chemistry and managing and blending of personalities than in any other sport. It is far more subjective sport regarding how scouts look at ball players... There are 60-year dash times and pop-times, but there is also the unknown factor of how a young man handles failure. In no other sport are the best players failing 70% of the time, but in MLB the best hitters in the world do exactly that.

Welcome and any thoughts about your favorite teams and theior prospects for a strong year is a great way to get started. Thanks

john did you post last year do you know your last year mlb record thanks

I have been following in other sports and I am interested in seeing your picks in MLB!

I am beginning to post Team Preview on the site. I have competed Miami, Philadelphia, and the Braves. Check-em out adn let me know your thoughts.

Let's discuss futures betting.
Who will win the Divisions and who will be the two wild cards? Give a few reasons why.

Reds season has taken a big hit with Madson tearing a elbow ligament.

5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies does this mean Moneyline bet?

Good Luck with the season

Do you primarily play money lines or run lines?

to recap the plays for Thursday to open up the season:

5* Philadelphia Phillies - 141 as listed at 5Dimes
10* Marlins +127
5* Dodgers -151

research is on the front page of the site or the fron page of the MLB section.

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Originally Posted by NYSackExchange

Do you primarily play money lines or run lines?

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Money line and more than 65 percent will be dogs. As you will you see one of favorite plays is tying up two +140 or higher dogs into a parlay. We will have three team round robins with three dogs. Totals will account for around 15 percent.

Well your 10* didnt work out this week.

You said you are 75% ATS on your 25*, what are you on the 5* and 10* graded plays?

John on your write up you said you had never had a losing season in any of the major sports?? I think you need to check you NCAA mens basketball record for this season before you keep making that claim.

What is the play for today?:cheers:

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Originally Posted by bmoorewiz

Well your 10* didnt work out this week.

You said you are 75% ATS on your 25*, what are you on the 5* and 10* graded plays?

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great first post

I am sure he was unaware his 10* lost. Thanks for pointing that out for him.

get lost

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Originally Posted by ItemB

John on your write up you said you had never had a losing season in any of the major sports?? I think you need to check you NCAA mens basketball record for this season before you keep making that claim.

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Yes and than check the NBA thread very soon

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Originally Posted by JJJ

Yes and than check the NBA thread very soon

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why do u troll his threads then?

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Originally Posted by 5mike5

why do u troll his threads then?

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:shades:

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Originally Posted by John Ryan

I am beginning to post Team Preview on the site. I have competed Miami, Philadelphia, and the Braves. Check-em out adn let me know your thoughts.

Let's discuss futures betting.
Who will win the Divisions and who will be the two wild cards? Give a few reasons why.

Reds season has taken a big hit with Madson tearing a elbow ligament.

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Good luck on your season John, Angels will be dangerous this year they had a really good rotation last year and now they added a really good pitcher in Wilson. Trumbo has another year on his belt, they play good defense and not to mention Puljos will have a monster year. My pick to win the al pennant. Any thoughts?

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Originally Posted by JJJ

Yes and than check the NBA thread very soon

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If it is a losing record, it is by the simest of margins and if you include the EXTRA wagers I included that are not in the record you would be modestly ahead.

Stop hating on John Ryan, His plays are there, make your opinion to tail of fade, He not putting a gun to your head and tell you to to tail him, He is however, Nice enough to share his researched pick and opinion on a game. Use that info or not your choice.

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Originally Posted by QuangX

Stop hating on John Ryan, His plays are there, make your opinion to tail of fade, He not putting a gun to your head and tell you to to tail him, He is however, Nice enough to share his researched pick and opinion on a game. Use that info or not your choice.

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Thanks for the support.. to all of you. the best in the world go through losing streaks. Lebron James will go through slumps, Warren Buffet goes through stick times where he can't pick his nose right. Batters couldn't hit sand if they fell off a camel. We are know the cliches.. I don't like losing streaks anymore than anyone else. The difference is that I do not allow it to effect my next day's work, research, and decision making. That is a good recipe for the entire day quite frankly.

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Originally Posted by 5mike5

why do u troll his threads then?

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hey Mike, Thanks for the support as always. you understand what it that is being accomplished here... and I appreciate that... we will continue to grind out plays and get to the goals we set, but the path to high achievement is never smooth and there are always valleys that test us. Thanks

JR any opinion on the Angel Royal game tonight? I think I'll take my chances with the Angels -1 for 155 for their opener.

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Originally Posted by ItemB

John on your write up you said you had never had a losing season in any of the major sports?? I think you need to check you NCAA mens basketball record for this season before you keep making that claim.

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I think you need do to your homework instead of just being an idiot who does nothing but play picks here and there and complain when there is losers. Leave this thread and do some work on your own D face

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Originally Posted by xxcnotexx

I think you need do to your homework instead of just being an idiot who does nothing but play picks here and there and complain when there is losers. Leave this thread and do some work on your own D face

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I do, do my homework and I am not complaining about Johns picks I really like his write ups and analysis. There are just two things that concern me with john saying he has never had losing season, one why lie what do you have to cover up when all the plays are listed, two a newbie reads that he has never had a losing season and over bets. Facts are facts this year in mens NCAAB was a losing season not much of a loser though, but none the less a losing season. I am thankful for the picks and work john puts out here and am looking forward to the MLB season.

Best of Luck This Season, John...you got a "wlp,u" record handy for last season?...it would make a nice baseline.

Also, it seems your bet sizes are all multiples of 5*, is that right ?(ie. 5*, 10*, 15*, 20*, and 25*max)...so one could easily translate that to (1u min, 2u, 3u, 4u, 5u max) if desired...?

Appreciate the work...

Ok for Sunday.
10 star TB
10 star Milwaukee
10 star Los angeles dodgers

Very rare I get three on one card

Plus Kansas City +162
cws +167. Both 5 star plays and add a 3 star parlay using both plays. These are the parlays I have described above. Now, two things. We are to a sluggish start. This is a marathon so stay the course and remain disciplined using the same monetary values for each graded play. Second, this is a big card so use caution and never presume I am due to win because of the sluggish start to the season.

I am going to play a few masters plays today.

I like Mickelson +167 to win versus the field
oostheisen at +567 to win versus field.
Under 70 1/2 McIlroy fourth round score
under 69 1/2 Mickelson fourth round score


Kuchar is very attractive too and he has the experience and mindset to go low? He is 1524 to win versus the field

JOhn Please give me insight on my Phillies pick?

i just noticed you have some plays under 5* occasionally...what i need to know is the maximum...don't think i've ever seen anything over 25*...it's important to know the base play-size and the likely max play-size to set your definition of a unit correctly


seems that setting a unit to 0.2% of roll (ie. divide roll up into 500 units) would be a sensible way to go if one wants to tail your picks profitably AND comfortably...blindly putting 1% of the bankroll up for every one of your stars (as i'm sure some are doing without thinking) would be asking to get wiped out before the season is out

John...would dividing the starting bank into 500 stars as i'm considering (ie. defining each star as 0.2%) a good way to go?...or you have other advice?

:surrender:

Jr any thoughts on taking the Yankees soon being 0-3 so far or any other teams who are winless?

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Originally Posted by fitguy67

i just noticed you have some plays under 5* occasionally...what i need to know is the maximum...don't think i've ever seen anything over 25*...it's important to know the base play-size and the likely max play-size to set your definition of a unit correctly


seems that setting a unit to 0.2% of roll (ie. divide roll up into 500 units) would be a sensible way to go if one wants to tail your picks profitably AND comfortably...blindly putting 1% of the bankroll up for every one of your stars (as i'm sure some are doing without thinking) would be asking to get wiped out before the season is out

John...would dividing the starting bank into 500 stars as i'm considering (ie. defining each star as 0.2%) a good way to go?...or you have other advice?

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That is a very good and conservative way to go.

I am going to start providing some game situations for discussion and possible plays. Here is the first one:

Milwaukee is 37-9 making 26.1 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games after one or more consecutive games where the 'under' has won the money spanning the last two seasons.

5* graded play ‘under’ Chicago White Sox - Cleveland Indians set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than seven runs will be scored in this game. The sim shows that both starters will combine for 12 or more innings of work. Moreover, the ‘under’ is increasingly more likely to win the money the greater the number is over 12 innings pitched. Despite dropping two of three games in their opening series against Toronto, Cleveland's starters allowed three earned runs and eight hits in 22 combined innings, and I strongly believe Josh Tomlin will deliver another solid performance Monday. The CWS will send Chris Sale to the hill and he will making his first career MLB start after two strong seasons in the Bullpen. As Mark Buehrle moved onto Miami through free agency, it opened up the opportunity for Sale to earn a spot in the rotation. The CWS bats are not performing well and they were near horrid in last night’s loss to Texas. The White Sox are not providing run support for their starters. They left nine runners on base and their 1 through 6 hitters went a combined 2-for-21. Take the ‘UNDER’

JR, Any thoughts on playing teams with the +odds starting a series expecting them not to get swept? Such as the Marlins against Philly this week. So take the marlins ml today because their the +odds betting that the phillies wont sweep them?
Or on teams such as the Yankees who are 0-3 expecting them not to go winless much longer.

I also like the Angels not to get swept by the Twins this series and the Giants who are 0-3 not to get swept by Rockies and wind up 0-6

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Originally Posted by jbizzle

JR, Any thoughts on playing teams with the +odds starting a series expecting them not to get swept? Such as the Marlins against Philly this week. So take the marlins ml today because their the +odds betting that the phillies wont sweep them?
Or on teams such as the Yankees who are 0-3 expecting them not to go winless much longer.

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That is good strategy, but that means, if I understand right, you are essentially loading up a bit on that first game of the series. I do like playing on road dogs that a have won thef irst two or three games of a three or four game series and are looking for the sweep. Many times the odds get cheap, as the betting public believe s, well the home team can't get swept.. and the trend in recent years has been a sweep by the road team.

I saw the Marlins line today and they have all the ingredients to make a real run into the playoffs. They don't have the pitching that philadelphia has, but they do have an offense that can get better over the course of the season. They hit four home runs today into the wind... a strong wind at that.. As far as the Yankees, there is nothing to say they can't start out 0-4 or even 0-9.. same can said for any winless team. It is hard to pinpoint when losing and winning streaks will end. or start for that matter.

I am going to add Kansas City at +110 later tonight.

5* Tampa Bay +101 starts at 1:05 PM Tuesday
5* baltimore +125
5* San Diego + 106

There will be more.

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Originally Posted by jbizzle

I also like the Angels not to get swept by the Twins this series and the Giants who are 0-3 not to get swept by Rockies and wind up 0-6

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good calls.. better research!