I also like the Angels not to get swept by the Twins this series and the Giants who are 0-3 not to get swept by Rockies and wind up 0-6
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I also like the Angels not to get swept by the Twins this series and the Giants who are 0-3 not to get swept by Rockies and wind up 0-6
That is good strategy, but that means, if I understand right, you are essentially loading up a bit on that first game of the series. I do like playing on road dogs that a have won thef irst two or three games of a three or four game series and are looking for the sweep. Many times the odds get cheap, as the betting public believe s, well the home team can't get swept.. and the trend in recent years has been a sweep by the road team.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbizzle
I saw the Marlins line today and they have all the ingredients to make a real run into the playoffs. They don't have the pitching that philadelphia has, but they do have an offense that can get better over the course of the season. They hit four home runs today into the wind... a strong wind at that.. As far as the Yankees, there is nothing to say they can't start out 0-4 or even 0-9.. same can said for any winless team. It is hard to pinpoint when losing and winning streaks will end. or start for that matter.
I am going to add Kansas City at +110 later tonight.
5* Tampa Bay +101 starts at 1:05 PM Tuesday
5* baltimore +125
5* San Diego + 106
There will be more.
good calls.. better research!Quote:
Originally Posted by jbizzle
You are right about the NCAA. It was the smallest of net losses on the season. However, I think you see that the majority of posters claim to have made money by taking advantage of the parlays, and added plays that I had said would not be part of the overall evaluation for the season. My point is that if this is my worst effort and we end upo losing pocket change, than I am proud of that record. At the end of the day, very few handicappers can steadily stay about the 50% level season after season and I am proud of those results so far here at SBR. Also, I know there will be a sport in the future that will have a blowout winning type of year - where even the 'wrong plays' somehow end up winning.. I think you understand what I mean. So, keep the discipline and let the profits build with a long-term vision.Quote:
Originally Posted by ItemB
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffie
Angels pitching is nearly as good as the Phillies adn the offense is far better. So, Yes, I can see why you are very excited to bring a World Championship to Anaheim!!!!!
I always appreciate volunteers to monitor the plays listed here on the thread to make certain the record is perfectly accurate. Please, if I ever make a mistake bring it to the thread's attention so we can work together. Thanks
5* plays are 4-2making 2.01 units per one unit wagered
10* are 0-3 losing a horrid 3.17 units per one unit play
5* run line 0-1 -100
3* DOG parlay 0-1 losing 1.20 unit per one unit wagered.
so based on the star units: 5* has made 5 x 2.01 for 10.05 units gained
offset by a loss of 3.17*10 for 31.70 units lost for 0-3 ten star plays
parlay has lost 1.20 * 3 unit amount for 3.60 units lost.
Plus 5 * run line loss of 1.00
OVERALL net loss of 26.25 units total.
John how are you 4-1 on 5* plays when you lost 2 5* plays on this one game ???Quote:
Originally Posted by John Ryan
Cliff Lee & the Phillies vs. Pirates: MLB Pick
http://jjj.mysbrforum.com/photos/l/S3448py4.jpgSaturday, April 07, 2012 9:04 AM ET By: John Ryan | www.sportsbookreview.com
Cliff Lee looks to lead the Philadelphia Phillies against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of their series this evening. Find out why I have selected two betting options that I am going to add to my MLB picks tonight.
5* graded sports pick on Philadelphia as they take on Pittsburgh in the second of this three game series set to start at 7:05 PM ET. I also like adding a 5* amount using the Run Line to our MLB picks.
Side
Money Line
Total
Score
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
1
2
Powered by SBR odds
Although second baseman Freddy Galvis’ impact on today’s game could be minimal, he is an excellent defensive specialist. His bat has come around as well. The 22-year old made a spectacular defensive play ending in a double play that got ace starter Roy Halladay out of a two-on nobody out first inning jam.
http://jjj.mysbrforum.com/photos/l/yqs77E9i.jpgIn the National League last year, the two most powerful runs scored were the second and third runs. The earlier they occurred in a game, the greater the chances that team would win the game. Teams that scored one run in a game won 9.6 percent of the time. But teams that scored two runs won 26 percent, and teams that scored three runs won just over 40 percent of their games. In other words, preventing a second run increases a team's odds of winning by about 17 percentage points, and preventing a third run increased them by about another 15 percentage points. No other runs moving the scoreboard from 3 to 4, 4 to 5, or 5 to 6 had as much impact on winning percentage as the second and third runs scored.
So, with the Philadelphia Phillies incredible starting pitching that sees Halladay, Lee, and Hamels pitch three of every five days, having Galvis at second base makes all the sense in the world. The problem will arise, and it will be a good one, is what happens when Chase Utley is ready to return. Only time will tell, but with two chronic knees, Utley’s ‘big show’ days may be numbered. If he returns 95% or better then the Phillies have either the second baseman of the future or a great trade bait come the trading deadline July 31.
Simulator Projections
My MLB betting simulator shows a high probability that the Philadelphia Phillies will win this game comfortably. I also like adding a 5* amount using the Run Line as it seems that the MLB lines are in our favor. Pittsburgh was shutout by Roy Halladay and the Phillies defense in their home opener and Pittsburgh is only 6-23 losing 15.8 units per one unit wagered using the money line after getting shut out over the last three seasons. Moreover, Pirates skipper Hurdle is just 5-17 losing 15.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of two runs or less in all games he has managed since 1997.
Phillies starter Cliff Lee
Roy Halladay has tremendous control and one of the best walks-to-strikeouts in all of baseball. However, after a team faces Halladay, they then have to face Cliff Lee, who threw the most strikes, 70% of all pitches, of any pitcher in the majors in 2011. Based on the strike zone along he threw 58% of pitches in the strike zone and this shows that he forced batters to try to hit pitches that were out of the strike zone and the result were routine easy outs. Only Justin Verlander, who went 26-6 and won the American League Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011, and Roy Halladay had better WHIP ratios than Lee.
The current members of the Pirates have batted just .164 in their respective careers when facing Lee spanning 55 at-bats. Rod Barajas is hitless in 17 at-bats in his career facing Lee.
My Pick: The Phillies offense will score far and away more runs than needed to get this win. Take the Phillies for a 5* play using the money line and a 5* play using the Run Line.
Thanks jjj. That pay counts of course and I listed plays on the thread. That pair were not on the thread, but count. So, if anyone wants to volunteer to be the thread auditor just step up. Thanks
Hey John. Huge fan I follow almost all of your plays and this is my 1st year touching the bases so to speak. I look at your thread twice a day normally.
Youre a stand up guy from what I can tell. Ill gladly update daily with results from that days games. I go to bed every night at 2 am and will provide a record of the day with the scores and overall record. Its no problem at all. I'll only grade plays posted in this thread.
Keep up the exceptional work.
Tuesday April 10
0-3
Tb 2-5 Loss 5*
Baltimore 4-5 Loss 5*
SD 2-4 Loss 5*
2012 MLB record 4-10
O-1 3* parlay play
4-6 5*
0-3 10*
JR, like any games today?
Any thoughts on Yankees to sweep today, I'm thinking Sabathia will be focused on redeeming his poor performance last week? Yankees bats seem to be getting in a better groove lately too.
Also looking at Philly -1 at + odds today hoping They can bounce back in game 2 against miami with Halliday.
scares me that Johnson has gone 4-0 against Phil's though at phillies field. May be a pass, Under seems too obvious and 6 is low.
5* Philadelphia boxed with Halladay.. pretty cheap price in my opinion.
money line or spread im confused?
he means ML im pretty sure. Any thoughts on Yankees/Orioles JR, lot of ppl on here are on the orioles.
Wed. April 10th
1-0
Phillies 7-1 Win 5*
2012 MLB season 5-10
0-1 3*
5-6 5*
0-4 10*
just double checking what was the fourth 10* losing play.. ?
I like Tampa Bay as a 5* play this afternoon... +112. There are some +114's but I will use what I get or the the consensus, which ever is lower as a dog or more expensive as a favorite.
also we need to keep track of the money line results too. As time moves on we may be hitting 50%, but units won will be significant.. I play a lot fo DOGS over the course of a season normally.. Maybe, if you are willing, start a spread sheet with all of the plays and lines used results and we will publish that each day. That would be a great help and an independent audit of the plays as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by drnkyourmlkshk
Hey John. Good point and im gonna try and find the closing lines on your selections prior to today and calculate the units you are up or down.
Everyday ill post the ML you advise and then put the unit amount or lose in paranthesis.
Ex. Sd +114 5* WIN (+5.7 units)
Phillies -123 5* LOSS (-6.1units)
Itll take me a couple hours but its no trouble. I do everything from my phone as I basically live in a casino so a spreadsheet wont be a option as I dont have a desktop currently but after today it'll be extremely easy and accurate.
Hope we have another winning day. Thanks again.
in the thread put a price next to the pick to help.Quote:
Originally Posted by John Ryan
yesterday, you put up the philly play in the thread but did not put up the price one could have bet that game at
Philadelphia 5* play +100 playing Miami..
Ok here we go. Also John you are 1-3 10* plays not 0-3 which you stated. I thought no wins.. But we had 4 10* plays thought we had lost them all since you put 0-3 I apoligize and it wont happen again.
Here we go.
4-5-12
Phillies -141 5* WIN (+5u)
Marlins +127 10* LOSS (-10u)
LA dodgers -151 5* win (+5u)
4-7-12
Phillies -165 5* LOSS (-8.25u)
Phillies RL -1.5 5* LOSS (-5.5u)
4-8-12
TB +101 10* WIN Tb 3- NYY-0 (+10.1u)
Milwaukee+108 LOSS (-10u)
LAD 10* +102 10* LOSS (-10u)
KC +162 5* WIN (+8.1u)
White sox 5* +167 LOSS (-5u)
*3 Parlay ChW & KC LOSS (-3u)
4-9-12
KC 5* +110 LOSS (-5u)
CHW & CLE 5* under 7 WIN(+5u)
4-10-12
TB 5* +101 LOSS (-5u)
Baltimore 5* +125 LOSS (-5u)
SD 5* +106 LOSS (-5u)
4-11-12
Philly 5* -134 WIN (+5u)
Updated record
0-1 3*
5-6 5*
1-3 10*
-33.25 units
Its a marathon not a sprint & after tailing John in NFL I have faith we will make some serious coin before NOV.
JR any thoughts on system plays such as the Labouchere system for baseball? I can't easily explain this system so here is a link to the idea.
http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx
Thursday 4-12-12
Tampa Bay +112 5* LOSS
Phillies +100 5* WINNER
Updated Record
0-1 3*
6-7 5*
1-3 10*
-33.25 units
tightin up john , gl :cheers:
He also had Arizona from SBR published post, it just didnt get put on here.
As stated earlier Ill only be reporting plays posted in this thread. If john says Arizona was a play then it'll go as a win or loss that day. I dont have time to go through the free play section everyday Im sorry.
John please post all your write up plays here as well to avoid any discrepencies. Thanks
Yesterday was a very bust day... Phillies play was awful. We'll always try to do better the next day.
10* Chicago White Sox -117
due to a host amount of time today.. I will not be able to post angles and trends. Rest assured this is a solid and validated 10* play on the White Sox.
On the sox got a great number! You didnt post the phils here yesterday. Please post all plays here in order for them to get recorded as a win or loss.
Thanks John
Nice call on the Sox. Any thoughts on the Royals/Indians under 8.5 tomorrow? They've had two back to back high scoring games and both starters have only faced the other team once I believe, not to mention Ubaldo Jimenez is throwing for the Indians.
5* CWS Sunday. Watch Sale's slider. It is devastating and the will throw it at any tie in almost any count situation.
Updated Record
4-14-12
Chicago -113 10* WIN (+10 units)
0-1 3*
6-7 5*
2-3 10*
-22.25 units
4-15-12
5* ChiWh -112 LOSS (-5.6u)
3* 0-1
5* 6-8
10*2-3
-27.85 units