It's pitchers/catchers time, baseball is all but upon us.
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It's pitchers/catchers time, baseball is all but upon us.
Have you released the criterias of MLB PLU$$$
V1? It's a mix of different systems, right?
It's not a mix of anything, original system, and no I did not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
You play it @ what % of roll?
Same as everything else. $100/unit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
Baseball is the starting point for my year. So I will look at my bankroll at the beginning of baseball to determine my unit size for the whole year. It will probably go up this season.
Hi Wallco99Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
Thanks for the tread in NBA. I look forward to follow you in MLB as well. Since I am new for the baseball betting I wonder if You can do a "once and for all" explanation how You play? Then You can only copy and paste for others to read as well. I will give You as many points You like for this work you do...just tell me how many you like.
Thanks
All aboard Walco.
Unless his business circumstances have changed, Wallco will not release his picking criteria here. He will post the daily picks and we play them on a 4 game chase. Simple. Last season bombed, but that was an aberration.Quote:
Originally Posted by petters72
% of roll please !!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
or
What would you like your bankroll to be in order to feel comfortable with your 100$ unit?
2011: ???Quote:
Originally Posted by Kev the Brit
2010: +151 units
2009: +174 units
2008: +201 units
2007: + 78 units
2006: -147 units
2005: + 74 units
You're right, it went bad, mainly because I got stupid and added a v2 that I thought was promising, but wasn't. I will post the staandings this year and last year will have an asterisk, with and without v2. Believe me, there was a big difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kev the Brit
Whatever you are comfortable with.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
Are these numbers correct? Looks promising though I know it dived down to the depths of hell for last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
Wallco if you could post last years numbers, preferably without V2 so they match Maxi's, I'd appreciate it. Nice job on the thread! :)
Good luck this year.
Why don't you provide people with a good advice. It's your system buddy. You know how it swings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
wallco, will u tell us how the system work, or do i u gonna keep that for yourself??
Because it it not here yet, I haven't finished reviewing 2011 and making adjustments, and I don't care about it yet. My personal bets have nothing to do with how others play any system. The backtests are provided, base your personal wagers on your comfort level of those results. Enough already. It's a four game chase syatem, play whatever % roll you normally would on a chase. If I play 1% or 5%, really doesn't matter to how others are going to do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
That's what I plan on doing, but he's not really giving me a chance. I am swarmed with NBA backtest right now, and have 0 time for MLB. I play $100 per unit, if that's not enough, then so be it.Quote:
Originally Posted by thelimit0310
I will post all the plays, same as last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by knugen
Those are the numbers he posted last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by thelimit0310
Just to help out people decide their unit size for MLB PLU$$$.
Based on Wallco's results posted last year & with 2011 going even (we will adjust that later).
MLB PLU$$$ will produce:
520 units or less: 100% of the time
200 units or less: 86.8% of the time
100 units or less: 58.6% of the time
50 units or less: 40.8% of the time
0 units or less: 24.73% of the time
-50 units or worst: 12.86% of the time
-100 units or worst: 5.67% of the time
-150 units or worst: 2.1 % of the time
Wallco
When you will have the time, can you provide us with each season's record in terms of # of series win/loss, please?
I think a big thing here is bankroll management. If you bet 1% as a unit, if the system swings to -100 units at any point you will be broke. It can than recover and even end the year in the green, but that doesnt matter because you would have lost your entire roll and be forced to quit.
So Wallco, it would be nice information to know what types of swings you saw in the backtest, and to what extent in the red. With a year at around -150 you would need to be playing .5% roll/unit but for all I know it could have swung to -200 at any point and you would have lost it all before recovering anything back.
Im gonna follow this v1 this year, probably do 1% units and hope for no big red swings:grrr:
Don't hope. Protect yourself.
Blah, Blah, Blah, up until last season it produced +594 units. 2011 stats will be posted when I have finished compiling. For anyone getting confused by the complex posts that are starting to appear in this thread, +594 is the bottom line. I play systems for the long haul. not day-day, or week-week, or unit-unit, as some folks appear to be doing. If you started playing in 2005 and stopped in 2011, you would have 594 more units than you started with. I will updare 2011 once I determine how much of the loss was from v2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
That was already posted in last year's backtest, in JM MLB thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
Thanks- checking in
I don't see what offends you in that post...Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
Again, you're in defensive mode.
Just numbers...
Your backtest was posted in terms of UNITS last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
Nothing offends me, I am just tired of hearing about it in February, when you know I am running several NBA backtests.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
Go read post #3446 in last year's thread, and as I said, It was posted in that thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxi_EV
Peace! :peace:
No sh*t!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
Sorry for that.
Points given.
I know and it is appreciated. I can't wait to ear about your Chase 110 re-backtest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallco99
That's why I bolded when you will have the time.
:peace:
just checking in. thanks for starting wallco. maybe guys can keep it to baseball only :)
Looking forward to it!
:cheers:
Maxi, we understand your point about swings and streaks, etc. But the fact is that the system is not broken into seasons. It is continuous, like all systems. It is the bettor who falsely stops and starts every year and therefore creates yearly stats.
2006 bombed, therefore anyone joining in 2005 would not have a BR to enjoy the benefits of 2007-2010. If the bettor started playing the system in 2007, he would still be in profit after 2011, even though 2010 wasn't profitable..
Bottom line: use your own judgement to decide when to get on the train, how much to pay for the ticket and when to get off. Wallco drives the train, not the passengers.
Kev
I know it's continuous Kev. And this argument just increases the importance of what I'm saying. The fact that it's continuous tells us that the swing could have been worst than -147 units. IT CAN'T BE LESS. If the end of 2005 or the beginning of 2007 are downfalls, the downswing in the continuity is just worst.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kev the Brit
My point is that it is so easy, using excel, to graph your results and then say: " Ok guys, I created a great system that generated 574 units in 6 seasons, the worst downswing being X units." I can't believe he doesn't provide us with that info. One click in excel...
Nobody wants to dig into the dark side of it. I know it is a POWERFUL system. Don't you think I've already figured that out with all the thoroughness with wich I analyse systems. But gambling is all about the RISK/REWARD equation. So we need both variables.
edit: I should have PM Kev. Sorry for that.
I am ready for this year to start already! Can't wait for baseball season.
GL Wallco I will be trailing you.