When the draw is favored in an Italian match

I have a lot of time on my hands this afternoon so I went back 3 years on Italian matches where the draw is the favorite (+110 or lower)

Score and draw odds listed

Serie A
2010-2011
Today
Udinese-AC Milan 0:0 -103
5/15/2011
Napoli - Inter 1:1 -108
Grosseto-Reggina 0:1 -185
5/8/2011
Bologna-Parma 0:0 -303
4/23/2011
Bologna -Cesena 0:2 -128
4/3/2011
Chievo-Sampdoria 0:0 -192

2009-2010
5/9/2010
Bologna-Catania 1:1 -154
5/2/2010
Bari-Genoa 3:0 -105
Cagliari-Udinese 2:2 -130
4/11/2010
Bologna-Lazio 2:3 -204
3/28/2010
Chievo-Parma 0:0 +100

2008-2009
5/24/2009
Chievo-Bologna 0:0 -159

8 out of 12 Draws
9 out of 12 Under

Hitting at a very good clip, unders too

thanks for the notes... I actually thought the % was lower than that..

Serie B
2010-2011
5/21/2011
Crotone-Grosseto 0:0 -333
5/14/2011
Vicenza-Pescara 2:2 -103
5/11/2011
Albinoleffe-Reggina 1:3 +100
5/7/2011
Empoli-Albinoleffe 3:1 -114
Modena-Grosseto 1:1 -217
Siena-Torino 2:2 -256
5/1/2011
Novara-Siena 2:2 -127
4/30/2011
Cittadella-Modena 1:1 +106
Vicenza-Crotone 1:2 +100
4/29/2011
Livorno-Atalanta 2:1 -109
4/22/2011
Crotone-Atalanta 2:2 -135
4/16/2011
Grosseto-Siena 0:1 -119
Sassuolo-Varese 1:1 +106
4/11/2011
Modena-Atalanta 1:2 -149
4/9/2011
Piacenza-Pescara 0:2 -106
4/8/2011
Empoli-Novara 0:0 -103
4/2/2011
Empoli-Padova 2:2 -154
Pescara-Crotone 1:0 -132
Sassuolo-Albinoleffe 1:0 -101
3/26/2011
Padova-Atalanta 1:1 -238
12/20/2010
Albinoleffe-Piacenza 3:3 -217

12 out of 21 draws when -150 or higher 6 out of 6 draws
10 out of 21 unders

2009-2010
5/30/2010
Frosinone-Triestina 2:2 100
Lecce-Sassuolo 0:0 -500
5/23/2010
Grosseto-Reggina 2:2 106
Vicenza-Lecce 0:0 -256
5/15/2010
Piacenza-Triestina 0:0 -182
5/14/2010
Lecce-Cesena 1:2 -159
5/1/2010
Piacenza-Vicenza 1:1 -141
4/30/2010
Ancona-Grosseto 1:1 -122
4/24/2010
Ascoli-Piacenza 1:1 102
4/17/2010
Modena-Albinoleffe 1:1 -115
4/13/2010
Crotone-Modena 4:2 -152
4/10/2010
Modena-Sassuolo 1:1 102
3/27/2010
Modena-Piacenza 0:1 -115
Triestina-Padova 2:1 -116
3/23/2010
Vicenza-Crotone 0:2 -182

10 out of 15 Draws; when -150 or higher 3 out of 6 draws
10 out of 15 Unders

2008/2009
5/30/2009
Mantova-Salernitana 1:1 -435
5/23/2009
Frosinone-Cittadella 1:0 -200
Treviso-Ascoli 1:1 -270
5/16/2009
Bari-Modena 4:1 -102
Cittadella-Parma 2:2 -127
5/9/2009
Piacenza-Bari 2:2 -192

4 out of 6 Draws; when -150 or higher 3 out of 4 draws
3 out of 6 Unders

3 Year Total
26 out of 42 Draws; when -150 or higher 12 out of 16 draws
23 out of 42 unders

Tons of these matches in Serie B. Only thing that would seem to produce profit is when -150 or higher.

good info, you could make a pretty good profit following this strategy.

Good stuff. .. keep us updated if You narrow down anymore and if u start to play these

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mlb

Good stuff. .. keep us updated if You narrow down anymore and if u start to play these

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The season is done now and these type of matches really only occur towards the end of the season. But it's definitely something to file away for years to come towards the end of the season. The under in these type games in Serie A is what I like. Once you get these -/ML games on the draw there's usual odd betting patterns going on followed by the draw sometimes off the board.

Good info. Tough to bet though, when something fishy is going on.

what so is it me or the draw favorite probably the safest bet

Draws as favorite bet, it smells allways. :)