[ritehook]

I'd put the odds at -100.

Of a 1930's type crash to the skids.

Among cognizant Americans, there is a deep sense of impending disaster. They don't have to read a line online or in a magazine. They can smell it coming.

I'm thinking most on these boards have seen only the Good Times, and think the party is never-ending.

Severe "morning after" stuff very likely in the offing, gents.

[ritehook]

If you bought gold or other precious metals a few years ago you may have made a wise decision.

Gold, etc, is not a dynamic "investment." It's static - gold doesn't do anything, it just sits there.

But it never loses value. It keeps pace with inflation, even with hyperflation. Nowaday, the same amount of gold that will buy you a nice tailored-made suit or two-week Riviera vacation would have bought you exactly the same thing in 1933.

Gold is thus golden in chaotic times. While your paper money, stock certificate, MMs, CDs etc lose real value, the gold retains it's value. Ditto silver, platinum, etc to a lesser extent

[Iwinyourmoney]

major.......major fall comin mid summer. Gas hits $4+ a gallon and china gives up on our dollar, sells off its holdings in the dollar......then we collapse huge. China is a bigger investor in the dollar then the USA is. China controls our future. when they sell off our dollar, we are done for.

[ritehook]

What has brought the most productive nation the world has ever known to this piteous and perilous state?

Everyone has their own views. Corporate control of America is one reasonable answer - a corporation looks only at short-term profit and loss sheets. A nation must plan long-term if it is to responsibly serve its citizens.

The ongoing ThirdWorldization of America could be a contributing factor. I personally know and appreiciate the culture and people of Mexico, but that does not mean I want to see this country become a second Mexico.

As it will do if the illegal flood is not halted, and at least partialy reversed. For one, children of illegal immigrants should not get automatic citizenship if born here.

But mostly, tho, I think our economic Waterloo is due to two things: the extraordinary costly Iraq adventure, and the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve.

Many think the latter practice, the phony creation of money from nothing, was the prime cause of the 1929 stock market crash, and the subsequent history-changing depression.

And the major reason, IMO, for the meltdown?

Four letters: I - R - A - Q

The neocon bullshitt-ers who got us into this imbroglio told us it would cost no more than a mere 50 billion.

Well, so far it has cost about 3 trillion. This is according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist.

That's not counting the hidden costs, the ones concealed in other parts of the budget.

Nor the future billions that caring for many years for wounded, maimed and otherwise damaged veterans of this misadventure will cost.

The '30s were called The Great Depression. We can call ours
The Baghdad Blowout.

[rugbybdyb]

I dont ever see anything like the 1930's ever happening again, since the run on banks etc was the major cause of the great depression however if you look at the years leading up to the 1930' (ie the "roaring 20's") it was it big time in the US economy where everyone was buying everything which is kind of similar to the buying of interent stuff and the real estate boom era that we just saw....So I do forsee a big depression on the horizon, in fact I think we are all already seeing the effects with the large increase in fuel prices and the large amount of forclosures etc....I just think that as dumb as people think americans are, the goverment and financial sectors have put so many stop gaps in place to keep the ecomony from hitting an all time low like we saw during the great depression(with the FDIC) Even if we see a run on banks the FDIC and federal requirements that state the banks have to keep a large percentage of the money on reserve will help curtail the large damage that this caused in the 30's ...... I think this will get worse before it gets better. We also have a much larger middle class that we did in the 30's and the money is dispearsed a lot more evenly across the classes which will also help curtail the damage that the depression will cause.....I think it will be bad, and people will struggle but again I dont think we will ever see anything like we did in the 30's, but who really knows....never say never right....

[rugbybdyb]

Originally Posted by ritehook

What has brought the most productive nation the world has ever known to this piteous and perilous state?

Everyone has their own views. Corporate control of America is one reasonable answer - a corporation looks only at short-term profit and loss sheets. A nation must plan long-term if it is to responsibly serve its citizens.

The ongoing ThirdWorldization of America could be a contributing factor. I personally know and appreiciate the culture and people of Mexico, but that does not mean I want to see this country become a second Mexico.

As it will do if the illegal flood is not halted, and at least partialy reversed. For one, children of illegal immigrants should not get automatic citizenship if born here.

But mostly, tho, I think our economic Waterloo is due to two things: the extraordinary costly Iraq adventure, and the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve.

Many think the latter practice, the phony creation of money from nothing, was the prime cause of the 1929 stock market crash, and the subsequent history-changing depression.

And the major reason, IMO, for the meltdown?

Four letters: I - R - A - Q

The neocon bullshitt-ers who got us into this imbroglio told us it would cost no more than a mere 50 billion.

Well, so far it has cost about 3 trillion. This is according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist.

That's not counting the hidden costs, the ones concealed in other parts of the budget.

Nor the future billions that caring for many years for wounded, maimed and otherwise damaged veterans of this misadventure will cost.

The '30s were called The Great Depression. We can call ours
The Baghdad Blowout.

I agree that everyone has there own views etc...but if you look at history and the ecomony, wars actually help and boost the economy....We did not see a dip in the ecomomy from Vietnam or any other war in history that I can think of, Was the Great depression caused from a war? I think not, The great depression was not caused by the phoney creation of money(please study your economic history).....This is more of a political comment on the fact that you do not agree with the war rather than it actually effecting the economy in a negative fashion...You can quote cost of wars all you want but you must also counter that with the positive effects that is has on the economy to make it a valid argument

[ritehook]

Originally Posted by Iwinyourmoney

major.......major fall comin mid summer. Gas hits $4+ a gallon and china gives up on our dollar, sells off its holdings in the dollar......then we collapse huge. China is a bigger investor in the dollar then the USA is. China controls our future. when they sell off our dollar, we are done for.

I agree. China owns a great part of the American debt.

But I doubt that China will call in its markers. Why would it want to destroy the major consumer of the shit it produces in its uncontrolled and filthy holes in the wall that it calls plants and factories?

(But let no one think corporate-controlled America is going to seriously crack down on dangerous and unbelievably shoddy goods flooding here from China. Do you kick your banker in the balls?)

The real immediate danger is that the oil producing nations will begin to call for payment in Euros, not in dollars. If that happens, and if you are not heavy into precious metals,or at least have your home paid for, locate a good source of wholesale apples.

That's what sucessful businessmen in the 1920s were doing in the early '30s, after they went belly-up in the Crash of '29. Selling apples on the streets from pushcarts.

Better yet, fortify that little vacation cottage you own in the mountains. And to see what's coming as you're holed up there, read a chapter a day of Gibbons' DECLINE AND FALL OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE.

Yes, Virginia, old Rome spent itself into bankruptcy. And "imperial" as they were, they were amateurs compared to the USA, with hundreds of military bases worldwide.

[ritehook]

Originally Posted by rugbybdyb

I dont ever see anything like the 1930's ever happening again, since the run on banks etc was the major cause of the great depression however if you look at the years leading up to the 1930' (ie the "roaring 20's") it was it big time in the US economy where everyone was buying everything which is kind of similar to the buying of interent stuff and the real estate boom era that we just saw....So I do forsee a big depression on the horizon, in fact I think we are all already seeing the effects with the large increase in fuel prices and the large amount of forclosures etc....I just think that as dumb as people think americans are, the goverment and financial sectors have put so many stop gaps in place to keep the ecomony from hitting an all time low like we saw during the great depression(with the FDIC) Even if we see a run on banks the FDIC and federal requirements that state the banks have to keep a large percentage of the money on reserve will help curtail the large damage that this caused in the 30's ...... I think this will get worse before it gets better. We also have a much larger middle class that we did in the 30's and the money is dispearsed a lot more evenly across the classes which will also help curtail the damage that the depression will cause.....I think it will be bad, and people will struggle but again I dont think we will ever see anything like we did in the 30's, but who really knows....never say never right....

You make some points tht are worth considering. I would disagree with your opener that the run on the banks caused the '30s Depression.

Tht was merely a result. The cause seemed to be the over-inflation of the money-supply that resulted from the "easy money" policy of the Fed. (Amazingly, the Fed was created in 1912 precisely to avert bank panics - or at least that's what we were told.)

Once confidence in the soundness of the dollar had evaporated, there was a flight away from paper and into precious metals.

While I understand the point that there are more "safeguards" in the economy today, there are also greater dangers in many other areas.

One, the safeguards don't seem to be working. The Fed is again showing it has but one answer to recession: create money out of thin air, inflate the money supply. They should just let recession run its course, rather than to administer these quack "cures."

And while, yes, the fed insured bank accounts won't likely fail, they will not have anywhere near as much buying power as the savers had counted on. If you have a true rate of inflation of over 10% (which I personally belive is the true rate, not the govts massaged figures) and you're getting, say, 5.5% on a one year CD, you're slowing going bankrupt.

And mostly: the biggest safegaurd America had 70 years ago is that it was still a majority-dominted society, with a discipline and work ethic that evaporated a long time ago.

Now, we have many clashing cultures, many dissendent voices hollering to be heard, demanding bigger pieces of what is called "the pie." (The pie that was created by the ingenuity of the mostly dominant Anglo culture.)

These voices were muted in the 1930s. The population, tho angry, was still very disciplined.

No more.

Red lights flashing just arouind the bend.

[ritehook]

Originally Posted by rugbybdyb

I agree that everyone has there own views etc...but if you look at history and the ecomony, wars actually help and boost the economy....We did not see a dip in the ecomomy from Vietnam or any other war in history that I can think of, Was the Great depression caused from a war? I think not, The great depression was not caused by the phoney creation of money(please study your economic history).....This is more of a political comment on the fact that you do not agree with the war rather than it actually effecting the economy in a negative fashion...You can quote cost of wars all you want but you must also counter that with the positive effects that is has on the economy to make it a valid argument

As noted, I did agree that depressions are caused by the "phoney creation of money."

And that during and after WWI and WW II there was a brightening of the general economy.

But if the creation of easy credit is a leading cause of severe economic fallout, what do you suppose has caused that?

The Fed has been merrily creating money for years now, to finance the disaster in Iraq, a branch office of Imperial America,Inc.

Those economic chickens are now coming home to roost.

But yes, if you are a very productive person, say one who owns your own sucessful business, and if you run into a temrpory and embarrassing financial situation, you can indeed kite a few checks or get some loans to get over the bad times.

And, yes, "pump-priming" the economy (make famous by ecomomist John Maynard Keynes) does seem to create jobs and prosperityl

BUT -- only if it is relatively short run, olnly if the nation has great human and natural resources. And only for a relatively short run.

We were in WWII for about 3 1/2 years. And, as noted, the working populaiton was still largely "native-born." And we still had the world's biggest and most dynamic industrial base. And we were nowhere near as dependent on foreign oil as we are now.

Much the same applied during and after Vietnam, tho in the early '70s the phrase "Nixon recession" was commonplace.

Now, our industrial base has been dramatically reduced; it's offshore. Our working population is increasingly Third World, with a emotional center of gravity outside this country.

And, the pump has been primed to the point where it is running dry.

The easy money policy of the Fed is largely to give the war-lovers the funds to continue with this five-years-and-still-ongoing war against the true national interest.

Three trillion dollars . . . let it roll off your tongue.

The pump is being drained dry. The water that's left is the paper savings of the thrifty. And that will likely go soon.

The great Christian mystic, Jacob Boehme, said that suffering was "the fleetest beast to bear one to perfection."

I have a feeling that within the lifetimes of most of us, America - what's left of it - will be the most Perfect Place on Earth.

Don't know if, disney-style, it will be the happiest.

[ritehook]

WWI and it's aftermath - the German hyper-inflation and the burdemson reparations the victors imposed upon the country, saw millions of hard working Germans wiped out and the subsequent rise of the Nazis.

I can see a military coup in America before 1920. Please do not tell me that the US has no tradtion of military rule. Earth-shaking and cataclysmic events have a way of breaking rhe most sacrosanct traditons. (Read any history of Rome.)

The Soviet Union collapsed due mainly to its imperial over-extension. Now in a mandatory shrink-wrap, and having jailed or exiled the thieving corporate raiders (called oligarchs) it is enjoying prosperous times.

The period of relative peace that the US enjoyed from the end of the Civil War to our entry into WWI, witnessed the greatest expansion of general prosperity in the history of the known world.

Wars without end are nation-killers. This is not an argument from any sentimental pacifism, but from a hard-headed "nationalism."

Even if short wars can be said to be "good" for the economy, long imperial wars, or being on an eternal war footing, have very negative results.

[rugbybdyb]

Rite hook.

I like reading your stuff man, although I don’t agree with all of it you are very intelligent and very well studied.....

I have a question you may know the answer to that I have thought about it my head many times......With betting being illegal in a majority of the United States, how do we base or decision on how the US economy is doing based on a system which is essentially a gamble in the stock market. I know there are a ton more economic indicators that tell us how our economy is doing but this is really just a gamble when you boil it down to its lowest level...Just always wondered that.

[Dark Horse]

We've been through a rough stretch since July, and given the circumstances are hanging in there fairly well. With 1929 tools, today's type of pressure would have caused a crash already.

I'll take a positive angle and mark mid-May as a point of economic upswing. Still, gasoline prices will reach $4.50 in California this year.

In a larger context I see the past years as centuries old darkness coming to the surface, like a disease that we're in the process of casting out. The ongoing crusades (waged under the flag of 'terrorism'), religious dogma and extremism, families of bankers in charge of our economies, fossil fuel and global warming, etc. This is one reason why I invested in solar stocks. We have to outspend the old order of motherf*ckers. Because they're filthy rich and aren't going to go quietly.

[ritehook]

Originally Posted by rugbybdyb

Rite hook.

I like reading your stuff man, although I don’t agree with all of it you are very intelligent and very well studied.....

I have a question you may know the answer to that I have thought about it my head many times......With betting being illegal in a majority of the United States, how do we base or decision on how the US economy is doing based on a system which is essentially a gamble in the stock market. I know there are a ton more economic indicators that tell us how our economy is doing but this is really just a gamble when you boil it down to its lowest level...Just always wondered that.

Not quite sure I understand your question, but that may be because Morpheus is becoming insistent, that I turn in.

Nor do i agree with all you state, but at least you're asking the questions. Even if we're in the same boat as the rest of the schlemiels when the shit hits the fan, at least we'll know it's not granola we're tasting .....

Sure, the market is gamble. I have nio prob with that - I do have a prob with the taxpayers bailing out a the super rich who were former "Masters of the Universe," in their Lamborghinis and $4000 tailored suits.

Let's let free enterprise work. Those who maide bad investment should go down.

[ritehook]

America was, in a sense, founded on gambling.

Lotteries financed the American Revolution.

Jefferson's purchase (from Napoleon) of what later became a huge part of the USA was ridiculed at the time as a foolish gamble. Jefferson now has been shown by history to have been one of the greatest "sharps" of all time.

The purchase of Alaska from Russia was decried in the halls of
Congress, a "frozen wasteland" they called it. (How much do you think the Russians would pay not to revoke the sale!)

I have no oppositioon to free enterprise gambling. I do object to the control of govt by global corporations. That's not free enterprise - it's welfare for the wealthy.

It's like betting all football and basketball season with a bookie who allows you to past post. Or one who pays you your winnings but forgives your losses.

Nice work if you can get it. And some have gotten it. Those of us who haven't will, of course, pay for their "good fortune."