[dave11486]

I looked at this today and saw:

Dems -150
Reps +120
Other Party +8000

How easy is this...or am I missing something?

I mean a lot of things could still happen b/w now and then, but a lot has to happen in the favor of the Republican Party in order for them to win.

[isetcap]

Contemplate who leads the polls for nomination as the Democratic candidate at the moment and then try to figure out how many people in this country would vote for a female or a black male vs. ANY white male. Also keep in mind that the Republicans are not running anybody named George Bush this time around.

If you think that the Democrats have better than an even money chance with Hillary or Obama on the ticket come November 2008, then you have not been paying attention to the US voting public for the last couple of presidential elections.

[Senator7]

Originally Posted by isetcap

Contemplate who leads the polls for nomination as the Democratic candidate at the moment and then try to figure out how many people in this country would vote for a female or a black male vs. ANY white male. Also keep in mind that the Republicans are not running anybody named George Bush this time around.

If you think that the Democrats have better than an even money chance with Hillary or Obama on the ticket come November 2008, then you have not been paying attention to the US voting public for the last couple of presidential elections.

Take it from someone who knows this stuff inside and out, isetcap is right on the money here...especially since Fred Thompson will be in the race for the GOP.

[Senator7]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0607/4309.html

If you can get decent odds on Fred Thompson, you'd be stupid not to take it...especially if its just the GOP nomination.

[rolemand]

The time to bet is immediately AFTER each party's convention. If you're betting Rep, then bet after Dem party and vice versa.

[pico]

Originally Posted by dave11486

I looked at this today and saw:

Dems -150
Reps +120
Other Party +8000

How easy is this...or am I missing something?

I mean a lot of things could still happen b/w now and then, but a lot has to happen in the favor of the Republican Party in order for them to win.

Dem -200
Reps +300
Other Party +100,000

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by picoman

Dem -200
Reps +300
Other Party +100,000

I'll take them all for whatever size you've got.

That's an 8.98% scalp.

[slacker00]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I'll take them all for whatever size you've got.

That's an 8.98% scalp.

Ganch, it'll take you at least 18 months to get paid. How much can you yield with an 18 month bank CD? Not to mention the bank CD is FDIC insured and good as gold. Tough to chase down some internet bookie when he's got 18 months to potentially get busted or whatever.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by slacker00

Ganch, it'll take you at least 18 months to get paid. How much can you yield with an 18 month bank CD? Not to mention the bank CD is FDIC insured and good as gold. Tough to chase down some internet bookie when he's got 18 months to potentially get busted or whatever.

Picoman's not an internet bookie, he's just a poster putting up a rather poor market. If Picoman were willing to make this "bet" (which I think we can agree he wouldn't be) don't expect me to be mailing him any cash prior to the bet's settling. We could settle up when the bet was decided.

There's a difference between making a bet at a post-up sportsbook versus making it peer-to-peer or with a local bookie or agent. In the peer-to-peer/bookie/agent case, the capital outlay is zero (although to be fair it might count against your credit line).

[pico]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

Picoman's not an internet bookie, he's just a poster putting up a rather poor market. If Picoman were willing to make this bet with "bet" with (which I think we can agree he wouldn't be) don't expect me to be mailing him any cash prior to the bet settling. We'd settle up when the bet was decided.

There's a difference between making a bet at a post-up sportsbook and peer-to-peer or with a local bookie or agent. In the peer-to-peer/bookie/agent case, the capital outlay would be zero (although it might count against your credit line).

i am making you a special offer. you can bet as much as you want with me...there is no limit. the lines are still -200, +300, +10,000.

but as a book, i reserve the right to cancel bets :-P

if you have to balls to scalp it, go ahead

[Ganchrow]

I'm just saying that if your sportsbook is going to be making markets like this ... don't expect me as investor.

[pico]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I'm just saying that if your sportsbook is going to be making markets like this ... don't expect me as investor.

how about no vig lines -200 +200 for dem and republicans. 100% signup bonus up to whatever. plus 5% rebate on all your bets. all you have to do is to western union me some money.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by picoman

how about no vig lines -200 +200 for dem and republicans. 100% signup bonus up to whatever. plus 5% rebate on all your bets. all you have to do is to western union me some money.

Yeah ... that's not so likely.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

There's a difference between making a bet at a post-up sportsbook and peer-to-peer or with a local bookie or agent. In the peer-to-peer/bookie/agent case, the capital outlay would be zero (although it might count against your credit line).

I'd add that this is also how Matchbook handles their "SmartBalances". Funds used as part of a hedge are not tied up and are freely available to bettors.

[SBR_John]

This is a pretty good thread that was down in the Politics Forum, which is new by the way.

Anyway, my question is +120 for the Rep? huh? I dont consider myself a pro capper but when the heck was the last time the Dems won it besides Clinton? I think I was skating at the roller skating ring and some peanut farmer snuck in for a term.

[Senator7]

Originally Posted by SBR_John

This is a pretty good thread that was down in the Politics Forum, which is new by the way.

Anyway, my question is +120 for the Rep? huh? I dont consider myself a pro capper but when the heck was the last time the Dems won it besides Clinton? I think I was skating at the roller skating ring and some peanut farmer snuck in for a term.

The only reason Carter and Clinton were able to sneak into office is because they were Democrats from the South. No Southern Democrat has a chance in hell of winning the Dem nomination in 2008.

Like I said, if I can get good odds on Fred Thompson, I'm taking them.

[SBR_John]

Well, Hillary is kind of from the south. I actually think she would be an average president. She is not as liberal as she is leading on to be. Bill wasnt either.

But from a betting standpoint to get the Rep at plus money in a US election? I'll take that all day long and twice on Sunday.

[abacus30]

No way America votes in a woman or black man. It's a shame. I'd bet heavy on the Republicans if I knew for sure offshore books would pay US citizens in November 2008. Additionally, I'm a hardcore liberal and I wouldn't vote for Hillary - company b*tch. Hoping for a miracle that John Edwards or Al Gore gets the nomination... they're our only chance.

[pico]

this thread looks very familiar...i swear i seen it before. but wait, this is not the same thread...bunch of posts are removed for some reason. why are you guys moving this thread here? what is the deal with censorship? i don't find my previous posts repulsive.

[isetcap]

Originally Posted by Senator7

The only reason Carter and Clinton were able to sneak into office is because they were Democrats from the South. No Southern Democrat has a chance in hell of winning the Dem nomination in 2008.

This is another part of the equation against the ultimate success of Clinton or Obama. If either one of them is nominated then they are delivering states (NY and Illinois) that will go Democrat even if Carrot Top is the candidate. As Senator says, the Democrats will need to run someone who can bring in a block of southern states if they really want to win the race.

[isetcap]

Interestingly, of all the names that are thrown around for the Democrats, the only one I would place as a favorite against the Republican field would be Al Gore. His positioning at this point in time is considerably improved versus his initial run which netted him a popular vote win. The problem is that Al feels he can make more of a difference outside the Oval Office on the issues he sees as important. He's probably right.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Frankly, I think we're f#cked no matter who ends up in office. They're all a bunch of seedy hypocrites who would run over their grandmother for a nickel.

[Dark Horse]

If Al Gore runs, he'll win. That's pretty much guaranteed. I'd bet as much as 50% of my bankroll on that.

Having looked at the other candidates yet. At a first glance, none seem realistic to me. (I've always picked the winning candidate; going back to the first Clinton win; so 4-0.)

[mayflower550]

urgh i have a feeling hilary is going to win though OBAMA IS THE TRUE WINNER