[imgv94]

Rudy Giuliani
John McCain
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards

I'm not really feeling any of these candidates. Hope someone else pops up..

Anyone else feeling the same way or know of anyone else who might stand a real shot against these 5 frontrunners?

[EBone]

I'd say there is a very small chance of another candidate emerging. Maybe less than a 1% chance. I certainly don't see a Democratic candidate getting the nomination over the three you mentioned, imgv.

However, there is a small chance that if Petraus(sp?) can pull off Iraq in a wonderous fashion that he could get the nomination from the Republican side. I have no idea what his political affiliation is but if he could pull it off, he would have a much better chance from the Republican side. This is still a very small percentage chance because he'd have to pull off Iraq quickly and then have enough time to make the primaries in early 2008. Indeed, a major miracle in my opinion.



E

[Arilou]

Anything can happen. To bring this back on topic: A little under 2/3rds of the time, Rudy or John gets the Republican nod. For the Democratic side, it's about 85%. A different Democrat isn't much stronger or weaker, but there's little question that Rudy and John are stronger Republicans than Field would be. So let's say that they're 55% to win if they get the nod and other Reps are 35% to reconcile with party odds. So the odds of someone else are about (quick math only) are 12% from the Republican side and 8% from the Democratic side, so about 20% overall.

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