No Bull$hit - Stock Talk

01-21-12 10:34 AM

A few of us have been talking stocks, options, etc in other threads - therefore I thought I would start up a new thread to talk everything stocks. I've been trading stocks (from penny stocks to blue-caps) for 15 years, and options for 9 years - I'll be posting my thoughts, ideas, things I hear, leans, etc on this thread - hopefully it can help some people out. Feel free to ask any questions you may have, i'll try my best to get back with you in a timely matter. "thebigd1" - seems to be very insightful and willing to help too, so you might want to shoot him a pm if I don't get back with you. Enjoy everyone!!!! Kill the bookie, wait I mean Kill Wall St.

"Lunch is for wimps" - Gekko

"How much is enough?" - Fox/Sheen
"It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." - Gekko

"Ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered." - Gekko

01-21-12 10:42 AM

Let's start the thread off with a winner - I trade mostly options so those will be most of my investments, however if you don't trade or are not set up to trade options - just trade the stock, bullish option play = buy the stock, bearish option play = sell the stock

Ticker (X) - US Steel

On Friday a 3 way bullish spread traded in US Steel (X)
4,450 April $23 puts were sold to open at $1.10, and the April $27/$33 1X2 Ratio Call Spread was bought 4,450X8,900 are $1.35 for a net debit of $0.25. This trade requires a lot of margin, and therefore I am assuming it is a Professional Institutional trade.

On Monday I will be looking to purchase Feb 2012 - $32 calls, looking to get in at a price less than .35/contract - this is a bullish play on earnings Jan 31st.

Good luck to all - I will update with what price I get in at on Monday.

01-21-12 12:43 PM

consider me bookmarked.
street family traders. let's stack chips!
thanks. best of luck, gentlemen!

01-23-12 09:41 AM

In $31 Feb X calls at .57c per contract

shady610 · 01-23-12 02:16 PM

id love to do more options, but i find them hard to understand. I would like to do options on my physical silver to cover losses when they take a dive

01-23-12 02:55 PM

Huge volume on PLCM into earnings tonight - I'm in for the $20 Feb calls at .85 a contract

01-23-12 03:12 PM

PLCM up big afterhours - those $20 calls should profit nicely

grizzy · 01-23-12 03:27 PM

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

PLCM up big afterhours - those $20 calls should profit nicely

Good call on PLCM. Any thoughts on AAPL before earnings tomorrow?

01-23-12 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by grizzy

Good call on PLCM. Any thoughts on AAPL before earnings tomorrow?

Grizzy - I think AAPL will print money like always tomorrow - the component companies that supply AAPL products that have reported so far (FCS,SWKS) to name a couple all had very bullish earnings calls, the basically said they cannot keep up with demand. The average estimates for AAPL are as follows:

30 million iPhone's
5 million Mac's
14 million iPad's (Range is from 8m to 17m)

AAPL is so tough to trade though, especially options and ESPECIALLY one day before earnings - almost everything is priced in, the one catalyst I see for tomorrow is that estimates do have quite a big range - most people will be looking to see how much the Kindle Fire and Nook are affecting AAPL iPad sales.

With that said I think AAPL beats earnings - I think they had an amazing holiday season - however it has had a pretty nice run in to earnings already. If I had to make a guess, I'd say they report great earnings - but get hit on some bullshit tomorrow like they sell 29.5 million iPhones not 30 million. I would wait and try and get a pullback, I bet AAPL sees $500 at some point this year - but I would not trade it in to earnings - or at least if you do buy the stock, but buy a put to protect yourself or vice versa.

My favorite trade off AAPL earrings is NUAN - they are the company behind SIRI, and therefore watch the iPhone number - if they beat estimates on iPhone - buy NUAN, they report Feb 9th - and I am bullish on calls in to NUAN if AAPL iPhone numbers are good

01-23-12 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by shady610

id love to do more options, but i find them hard to understand. I would like to do options on my physical silver to cover losses when they take a dive

Shady - options are definitely very risky and can be very confusing - however if you are looking to hedge your physical silver when it takes a dive - you can look to purchase longer dated puts in SLV - maybe look in to a Jan 2013 put around the $23 or $24 strike price. I'd have to run all the numbers based on how much you own, what you bought it at etc, to make a better recommendation - but longer dated puts would be a good way to hedge

01-23-12 05:27 PM

Will be looking to add FIO tomorrow before earnings - they have moved up their reporting date by one week, and Steve Wozniack is the Chief Scientist at the company. I think they blow away earnings tomorrow, will try and update more later with trade and reasoning behind it.

Deep_Rest · 01-23-12 07:07 PM

AAPL is a shark tank if you're a short-term investor. I wouldn't bother. I think earnings are currently priced into the stock, but of course what we're really looking forward to is the outlook for next quarter. Unless by some miracle Apple announces the iPhone 5, Apple TV, or a dividend tomorrow, just pass.

If you're really fixated on the AAPL earnings, I'd recommend investing indirectly tomorrow in companies like Intel (chip supplier), Best Buy (retail seller of Apple products), or AT&T (iPhone carrier). For that matter, if Apple's earnings are really good, it can lift the entire market and all you need to do is pick your favorite tech stock! Just pray Iran or Greece don't do anything crazy tomorrow and you'll be alright. BOL!

thebigd1 · 01-23-12 09:17 PM

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

A few of us have been talking stocks, options, etc in other threads - therefore I thought I would start up a new thread to talk everything stocks. I've been trading stocks (from penny stocks to blue-caps) for 15 years, and options for 9 years - I'll be posting my thoughts, ideas, things I hear, leans, etc on this thread - hopefully it can help some people out. Feel free to ask any questions you may have, i'll try my best to get back with you in a timely matter. "thebigd1" - seems to be very insightful and willing to help too, so you might want to shoot him a pm if I don't get back with you. Enjoy everyone!!!! Kill the bookie, wait I mean Kill Wall St.

"Lunch is for wimps" - Gekko

"How much is enough?" - Fox/Sheen
"It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." - Gekko

"Ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep, and sheep get slaughtered." - Gekko

Money never sleeps. Good one and very quotable at that lol. I have a lot to learn for you, you are obviously a profitable trader to have been trading for that long. I'm wanting to become an options/futures trader so hopefully you can give me a helping hand.

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

Huge volume on PLCM into earnings tonight - I'm in for the $20 Feb calls at .85 a contract

Great, I was eyeing this all day waiting for that red to green move which came 3:30 ET. Profited avg $2.20 a share on this one.

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

PLCM up big afterhours - those $20 calls should profit nicely

How much were those calls worth AH?

shady610 · 01-24-12 05:44 AM

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

Shady - options are definitely very risky and can be very confusing - however if you are looking to hedge your physical silver when it takes a dive - you can look to purchase longer dated puts in SLV - maybe look in to a Jan 2013 put around the $23 or $24 strike price. I'd have to run all the numbers based on how much you own, what you bought it at etc, to make a better recommendation - but longer dated puts would be a good way to hedge

Do you reccomend any good reading? I have about 140 ounces and bought most between 16 and 27.

01-24-12 10:22 AM

Out of PLCM calls at $2.15 - 153% profit

01-24-12 11:23 AM

Hopefully not regretting this one - options are expensive, but in for $35 FIO Feb calls @ 1.15

RoadDog · 01-24-12 11:32 AM

Thinking about throwing a few hundred into the market today. In the beginning stages of learning and teaching myself through E*Trade and Investopia. Any suggestions on a stock to get into today? Thanks in advance for any help guys. Love the thread

thebigd1 · 01-24-12 11:50 AM

Did any1 take my BVSN tip?

01-24-12 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by thebigd1

Did any1 take my BVSN tip?

I unfortunately did not - where did you post BVSN at? I don't understand the movement in the stock, what's going on with them - great call though

01-24-12 11:54 AM

If anyone is following me on FIO - check back towards market close, I might hedge with some puts or exit trade all together, want to see how volume and price shakes out the rest of the day

01-24-12 11:57 AM

Originally Posted by RoadDog

Thinking about throwing a few hundred into the market today. In the beginning stages of learning and teaching myself through E*Trade and Investopia. Any suggestions on a stock to get into today? Thanks in advance for any help guys. Love the thread

RoadDog - I really like NXPI and NUAN in 2012 - NXPI is the leader in mobile phone payments which I think will start to become huge and NUAN is the leading of voice recognition company - the do SIRI in the iPhone

RoadDog · 01-24-12 11:58 AM

Originally Posted by thebigd1

Did any1 take my BVSN tip?

Completely missed that one bigd. Got anything else you're eyeing?

RoadDog · 01-24-12 12:35 PM

Cruz, what do you project for NXPI in the short-term? Is this one that I'll need to hold for a while to see a profit?

thebigd1 · 01-24-12 12:55 PM

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

I unfortunately did not - where did you post BVSN at? I don't understand the movement in the stock, what's going on with them - great call though

Notified on the 9th via inbox when it started catching some volume. It is a pump and dump, low float stock something I havent seen since JVA over the summer. Too bad not optionable. Here's the sell-off.

grizzy · 01-24-12 12:56 PM

Good stuff gents.

Cruz - I'm going to look into Nuan and Nxpi...going to get my accountant on and hit up the financials and see what they are working with. And keep us posted on FIO.

Another stock I love and have been in since $40 is COH - they killed earnings today and I still have them valued at like $80+ a share. Margins are nuts and they are swimming in cash. Might take a little off the table today though and lock in some profit.

grizzy · 01-24-12 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by thebigd1

Notified on the 9th via inbox when it started catching some volume. It is a pump and dump, low float stock something I havent seen since JVA over the summer. Too bad not optionable. Here's the sell-off.

LOL - I'm down for the pump and dumps as long as you time that ish....keep us updated on any other such situations. With BVSN and NSRS, you've been on the right side of 2 of these runners...good stuff.

RoadDog · 01-24-12 02:12 PM

DPTRQ seems to keep on giving....Bought it at .18, now at .24. What's the sell point on this one guys?

dugdogg · 01-24-12 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by thebigd1

Notified on the 9th via inbox when it started catching some volume. It is a pump and dump, low float stock something I havent seen since JVA over the summer. Too bad not optionable. Here's the sell-off.

BVSN is actually NOT a pump and DUMP...it is a legit company in a space that is blowing up. it has a product similar to Salesforce.com's Chatter and JIVE's program. This area of cloud computing is really heating up. this stock caught a lot of volume and with a low float it really took off. hedge funds i bet were trying to short it and got their face ripped off.

this stock could hold $30 once everything settles...can't believe it almost hit $45 today!

thebigd1 · 01-24-12 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by cruzforcash101

RoadDog - I really like NXPI and NUAN in 2012 - NXPI is the leader in mobile phone payments which I think will start to become huge and NUAN is the leading of voice recognition company - the do SIRI in the iPhone

Great call on NUAN! I need to do more analysis on these two.

AAPL Reported Q1 EPS $13.87 vs $10.08 Est; Revenues $46.30B vs $38.85B Est. This company is a monster. Anybody get shares to short off 460's? Almost -$16 of its highs. Great profits to be made this month. Legoooo fam.

dugdogg · 01-24-12 05:22 PM

i would not be shorting AAPL. doesn't matter if it's to make a buck or two...there's way better opportunities to make money. don't short a company that just had the best quarter for any company EVER

01-24-12 05:42 PM

Not a good call on FIO though - sorry to anyone who may have followed my advice on this one, just a dumb trade by me not hedging with puts in to earnings - not sure why they would push their earnings date forward to report shitty earnings. Ahhhhh on to the next one, will do better research next time, sorry guys

01-24-12 05:44 PM

Originally Posted by RoadDog

DPTRQ seems to keep on giving....Bought it at .18, now at .24. What's the sell point on this one guys?

RoadDog - I used to trade penny stock when I first started investing, very exciting - it's fun to think you own 1,000 shares of a company. Got burned way to much though - those stocks are so manipulated that any quick profit you make, just take it and move on. If I were you I'd sell - but don't know much about the company

thebigd1 · 01-24-12 05:45 PM

This was a great opportunity actually. Plenty of shares to short. Avg 8.66 a share in 20 min. No reason not to capitalize.

01-24-12 05:46 PM

Originally Posted by thebigd1

Great call on NUAN! I need to do more analysis on these two.

AAPL Reported Q1 EPS $13.87 vs $10.08 Est; Revenues $46.30B vs $38.85B Est. This company is a monster. Anybody get shares to short off 460's? Almost -$16 of its highs. Great profits to be made this month. Legoooo fam.

I'm an idiot for not buying NUAN in to AAPL earnings - I like them a lot as a company though, I see voice recognition and mobile payments (NXPI) as two emerging industries. NXPI should run at some point this year, word is mobile payments run by NXPI will have a platform on the iPhone5 whenever that is coming out.

thebigd1 · 01-24-12 05:47 PM

RoadDog I exited DPTRQ when I last told you at .24. Be careful.

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