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Go Back   Sports Handicapping, Betting & Picks - SBR Forum > Sports Handicapping, Picks and Game Discussion > Politics & Economics

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Old 11-07-2006, 05:27 PM   #1 (permalink)
JoshW
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Default Did you vote?

Don't have to make it a political topic, just whether you voted or not.

I did not.
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Old 11-07-2006, 05:57 PM   #2 (permalink)
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No

Too disgusted with all the losers.
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Old 11-07-2006, 05:57 PM   #3 (permalink)
Doc JS
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Yes. When I was just a wee lad my dad told me if I didn't vote then don't bitch. Since I'm gonna bitch, I always make sure I vote! lol

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Old 11-07-2006, 06:23 PM   #4 (permalink)
Ganchrow
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Default Don't Vote (It makes more sense to play the lottery.)

Don't Vote
It makes more sense to play the lottery.
Quote:
Originally Posted by By Steven E. Landsburg @ Slate.com
We might be headed for another close election, which means your vote could really matter this time, right? Wrong. Your vote didn't matter in 2000, it never mattered before 2000, and it's very unlikely to start mattering now.

Last time around, everything came down to Florida, where Bush's official margin was 537 votes. (Yes, yes, I know, if they'd been counted differently there'd have been a different margin and perhaps a different outcome. But that's not what this column is about.) If any one of Florida's 6 million voters had stayed home, Bush's margin would have been 536 or 538 votes, and he'd still have won. Even if you voted in the most hotly disputed state in the mostly hotly disputed election in American history, your vote did not change the outcome.

Your individual vote will never matter unless the election in your state is within one vote of a dead-even tie. (And even then, it will matter only if your state tips the balance in the electoral college.) What are the odds of that? Well, let's suppose you live in Florida and that Florida's 6 million voters are statistically evenly divided—meaning that each of them has (as far as you know) exactly a 50/50 chance of voting for either Bush or Kerry—the statistical equivalent of a coin toss. Then the probability you'll break a tie is equal to the probability that exactly 3 million out of 6 million tosses will turn up heads. That's about 1 in 3,100—roughly the same as the probability you'll be murdered by your mother.

And that's surely a gross overestimate of your influence, because it assumes there's no bias at all in your neighbors' preferences. Even a slight change in that assumption leads to a dramatic change in the conclusion. If Kerry (or Bush) has just a slight edge, so that each of your fellow voters has a 51 percent likelihood of voting for him, then your chance of casting the tiebreaker is about one in 10 to the 1,046th power—approximately the same chance you have of winning the Powerball jackpot 128 times in a row.

For those of us who live in New York State, the situation is far worse. Last time around, about 6.5 million votes were cast for major party candidates in New York state and 63 percent of them went to Al Gore. Assuming an electorate of similar size with a similar bias, my chance of casting the deciding vote in New York is about one in 10 to the 200,708th power. I have a better chance of winning the Powerball jackpot 7,400 times in a row than of affecting the election's outcome. Which makes it pretty hard to see why I should vote.

The traditional reply begins with the phrase "But if everyone thought like that ... ." To which the correct rejoinder is: So what? Everyone doesn't think like that. They continue to vote by the millions and tens of millions.

Even for the most passionate partisan, it's hard to argue that voting is a good use of your time. Instead of waiting in line to vote, you could wait in line to buy a lottery ticket, hoping to win $100 million and use it to advance your causes—and all with an almost indescribably greater chance of success than you'd have in the voting booth.

Click here for the formulas that were used in this column.
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Old 11-07-2006, 06:27 PM   #5 (permalink)
Sam Odom
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Yep and went back again Took my elderly friend this afternoon.
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Old 11-07-2006, 06:30 PM   #6 (permalink)
Jay Edgar
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I vote for the same reason I go to wakes and funerals.

Symbolic acts make me feel more like a member of the human race.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:48 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
We might be headed for another close election, which means your vote could really matter this time, right? Wrong. Your vote didn't matter in 2000, it never mattered before 2000, and it's very unlikely to start mattering now.
What a crock!

Yes I voted, have missed just one election since I turned legal age and still feel guilty about not doing my civic duty on that occasion to this day. If there's anything that the 2000 election proved is was that your vote counts!
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:50 PM   #8 (permalink)
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No.

Im not registered.
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:34 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willie Bee
What a crock!

Yes I voted, have missed just one election since I turned legal age and still feel guilty about not doing my civic duty on that occasion to this day. If there's anything that the 2000 election proved is was that your vote counts!
While an enticing philosophical argument could potentially be made that voting contributes to some Platonic ideal of The Just Society, I think the article quoted above makes a compelling case as to why in the real world an individual vote (esepcially in a Presidential election) is of at best de minimis consequence.
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:03 PM   #10 (permalink)
thezbar
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no i didn't vote however I did make a small play on the yes in the nevada"s maryjane prop.
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:09 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I walked in, asked who the public was on, which brought upon a confused look on the volunteers' faces. I muttered "fade the public, fade the public" under my breath as I randomly touched different boxes on the screen.
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Old 11-08-2006, 12:38 AM   #12 (permalink)
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When was it determined that it is a "civic duty"?
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Old 11-08-2006, 01:06 AM   #13 (permalink)
LVHerbie
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I was involved in third party politics for three or four years when I was younger and ran for office twice... I encourage anyone who thinks the average voter makes an intelligent and informed decision to walk door to door in a few districts...

I haven't voted in many years because I believe it legitimizes a broken system... I probably won't vote again anytime soon (unless I make a bet on a race sometime down the road... ) because I'm currently living in a state (Okla) where it's nearly impossible to get choices, outside the "mainstream" parties, on the ballot...
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Old 11-08-2006, 01:07 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OWNED
I walked in, asked who the public was on, which brought upon a confused look on the volunteers' faces. I muttered "fade the public, fade the public" under my breath as I randomly touched different boxes on the screen.
I'm with you bro, my first thought when I went into the polls was who would be the dog in the ML
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Old 11-08-2006, 01:22 AM   #15 (permalink)
isetcap
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LVHerbie
...I encourage anyone who thinks the average voter makes an intelligent and informed decision to walk door to door in a few districts...
I feel bad voting because I know that my vote should not count as much as other people who are simply better decision-makers than myself. If there was a way for me to cast a third of a vote then I might consider it.
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Old 11-08-2006, 01:44 AM   #16 (permalink)
Lucas
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I tell you: approach of non-voters full of evasions is a shame.

...ok it is rational, it is wasting a time, ok...

But you should at least pretend voting activity instead of betting on LAL for the second half. That is nice example: to show we are lazy, intelligent, rational bastards. Although from entity view has no sense going to vote, only people/groups that vote or pretend voting are taken seriously.

If I were a republican, read the forum and won the elections I would have laugh like Mr. Clinton, after Monica left his office full of his DNA. And after that I will send every gambler on a hot chair.
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Old 11-08-2006, 01:45 AM   #17 (permalink)
rolemand
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I just counted how many flyers I got from each candidate and voted that way. I figure they wanted my vote more.
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