Actually, the most skill is required when trying to survive the bubble phase, when there may be 4 or 5 players left, two of which are short stacked. To answer your numbers question, a 16% return on investment is a fine average for a winning player. You won't need to make it into the money 50% of the time to realize a 16% ROI, though.
If you are really good at short handed and heads up play, you'll be able to win your way to more than your share of 1st place finishes. I'd shoot for 40% in the money and 15-20% ROI.
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