[VegasDave]

Feel LUCKY, or feel smart and believe they were on the right side?

Just curious

[ShamsWoof10]

FEEL...????

AM SMART!!!

THIS D has played fairly well....

[durito]

I beat the closing #.

I don't care what happens in the game (from a gambling perspective anyway, as a fan I'd prefer the PAC10 team to win)

[onthewhat]

ucla was not the right side, lol

[daggerkobe]

UCLA dominated this game. If it weren't for those 4 INTs, they'd be up big.

[frostno98]

Can't say I'm suprised, seen it happened to USC and Oregon who thought the game was going to be a breezier.

[purecarnagge]

okay so 4 INTS...and a special teams touchdown and you think you were on the right side of the game...

tennesee was the 10th on a 10 team parlay..it lost cuz tenn couldn win as a pickem. yes im pouting on my 5.00 parlay.

[VegasDave]

Originally Posted by purecarnagge

okay so 4 INTS...and a special teams touchdown and you think you were on the right side of the game...

Crompton looked awful didn't he? I mean yeah UCLA's D was great but this guy missed BAD way too many times.

[purecarnagge]

he didn't throw 4 INTs... part of the problem was they needed to get him out of the pocket or throwing quicker passes because ucla was bringing 6-7 guys almost every play it seemed like...most of it up the middle... no roll outs, no jailbreak screens no quick passing...

I mean if you take a special teams TD and a fumble by a top notch rb out of this game theis game is 14pt to 17 pt win by tenn... you can't really cap that stuff but it happens...gotta roll with it...sometime it kills you sometimes it carries you

[bmw530i]

This is the first game in a while, i feel dirty and ripped off....Tenn...just owned them....if they dont fumble and go up 21-7...ucla can't recover...I feel like I fell into a corner....

[VegasDave]

I agree with you... If they'd have punched it in from the 6 and gone up 21 - 7...

But oh well.

[daggerkobe]

Take away all the fumbles, INTs & pick 6s and UCLA still wins.

UCLA's defense and QB just stepped up when they needed to.

[donjuan]

ucla was not the right side, lol

At what number? Blanket statements like that are retarded.

[VegasDave]

Love the responses from you guys saying you got the right number...

Taking the emotion out of the game is the only way to win.

[purecarnagge]

Originally Posted by usckingsfan31

Love the responses from you guys saying you got the right number...

Taking the emotion out of the game is the only way to win.

Take the emotion out of the game is not the only way to win. If there was no emotion I wouldn't bet.

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by usckingsfan31

Love the responses from you guys saying you got the right number...

Taking the emotion out of the game is the only way to win.

Yeah I hear ya'... The number matters but not that often... The right side is the cake the right number is the frosting... but some people think it's not about picking winners... Maybe they "line shopped" and got the Volvs at +4 ....

Volvs backers lost no matter how much they "line shopped" on BOTH the Side and ML....

[durito]

the right number is the only thing that matters

[Steeltown]

The only question you should be asking is why did Fulmer and Tennesse go into prevent with 8 minutes left when UCLA couldnt do shit all game? Why change what was working? Two td's in last 8 min . Explain that! Explain why refs didnt call the obvuious illegal entire line down field on the screen play? Explain why Fulmer played for 3 after holding UCLA to 3?

[donjuan]

No, the right number is all that matters. If you gave me Tennessee PK +100, that would be the right number. If you gave me UCLA +10.5, that would be the right number. Such a thing as right side does not exist without reference to price and number.

[Steeltown]

Dont ignore inside info kid! It only comes along once in a blue moon !

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by durito

the right number is the only thing that matters

Originally Posted by donjuan

No, the right number is all that matters. If you gave me Tennessee PK +100, that would be the right number. If you gave me UCLA +10.5, that would be the right number. Such a thing as right side does not exist without reference to price and number.

This is not handicapping the teams this is handicapping the books...

Originally Posted by Steeltown

Dont ignore inside info kid! It only comes along once in a blue moon !

Good call "SHARON"!!!

[donjuan]

This is not handicapping the teams this is handicapping the books...

Sick level.

[Steeltown]

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

This is not handicapping the teams this is handicapping the books...



Good call "SHARON"!!!

Not a problem Shlomo!

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Sick level.

What is sick is if you would have taken TN. PK +100 you STILL would have lost... You likely would have bet the house on it too at that price and lost that...

If prices and numbers are the only thing then why know anything about the team..? How many returners do they got coming back..? WHO CARES I GOT THE BETTER NUMBER AND PRICE.... oh okkkkkk....

If you bet the better number at CWag on MLB games they have been off by a wide margin you would have lost your d*ck this summer...

Originally Posted by Steeltown

Not a problem Shlomo!

[durito]

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

If you bet the better number at CWag on MLB games they have been off by a wide margin you would have lost your d*ck this summer...

actually the people that have done this have cleaned up.

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by durito

actually the people that have done this have cleaned up.

MY AS* they have... They only cleaned up if they were scalping... If they just bet the CWag. side they lost their as*....

[donjuan]

What is sick is if you would have taken TN. PK +100 you STILL would have lost... You likely would have bet the house on it too at that price and lost that...

If prices and numbers are the only thing then why know anything about the team..? How many returners do they got coming back..? WHO CARES I GOT THE BETTER NUMBER AND PRICE.... oh okkkkkk....

If you bet the better number at CWag on MLB games they have been off by a wide margin you would have lost your d*ck this summer...

Oh, you weren't being intentionally obtuse? You still obviously don't have a clue about sample sizes, probability distributions or pretty much anything to do with sports betting. I look for bets with +EV/+EG based on my model. As long as I beat the closing number, I'm happy with my bet and generally don't care what happens in the game. Thus, you'll never see me post about wanting to throw up, punching or throwing things or generally having a temper tantrum after I lose.

[betplom]

Originally Posted by donjuan

As long as I beat the closing number, I'm happy with my bet and generally don't care what happens in the game.

Sounds like a way of making yourself feel better after backing the wrong side.

I'll take winners over beating the closing number anyday.

[VegasDave]

Originally Posted by purecarnagge

Take the emotion out of the game is not the only way to win. If there was no emotion I wouldn't bet.

I wouldn't either; I do it for the entertainment.

But it has to be all business to consistently win I think.

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Oh, you weren't being intentionally obtuse? You still obviously don't have a clue about sample sizes, probability distributions or pretty much anything to do with sports betting. I look for bets with +EV/+EG based on my model. As long as I beat the closing number, I'm happy with my bet and generally don't care what happens in the game. Thus, you'll never see me post about wanting to throw up, punching or throwing things or generally having a temper tantrum after I lose.

After your comment about halftime bets I don't take anything you say about sports betting seriously.... Halftime bets are some of the best value in wagering.... I guess you would not know that though since you think I am leaving money on the table but whatever....

[donjuan]

Sounds like a way of making yourself feel better after backing the wrong side.

I'll take winners over beating the closing number anyday.

Not at all. If you beat closing lines you WILL win long term.

After your comment about halftime bets I don't take anything you say about sports betting seriously.... Halftime bets are some of the best value in wagering.... I guess you would not know that though since you think I am leaving money on the table but whatever....

Yes, your rebuttal ripped me a new one. In case you forgot, you cut your losses and didn't respond: Tiger in trouble at the PGA

[betplom]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Not at all. If you beat closing lines you WILL win long term.

Even if you hit at 30% ?

[durito]

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

MY AS* they have... They only cleaned up if they were scalping... If they just bet the CWag. side they lost their as*....

No one cleaned up doing anything with $100 limits.

I don't have the data to confirm this as scraping credit wagering lines isn't really on my to do list.

Nevertheless, LT Profits says he's won picking off their off market lines. This is not remotely difficult to believe as doing this does will always win over a sufficient sample size.

And when given the choice between believing LT and someone who still thinks Ganchrow and Tacomax are the same person even after 50 people met both of them last weekend, I'm gonna have to trust LT here.

But hey maybe I misunderstood and he lost. I mean surely credit wagering is sharper than pinnacle. That must explain their $100 limits compared to $10,000.

[englishmike]

Originally Posted by durito

And when given the choice between believing LT and someone who still think Ganchcrow and Tacomax are the same person even after 50 people met both of them last weekend, I'm gonna have to trust LT here.

.

Sharp post.

[durito]

Originally Posted by betplom

Even if you hit at 30% ?

I don't follow.

If you make bets at +250 and you always beat the closing line, you will clean up at 30%.

It's really quite simple, and the data backs it up.

Add just 1 pt to the closing line for the home team in NCAA basketball's score the last 15 years and they will cover 54% of the time (similar numbers for the away side). If you have competent risk management and can find games off by that 1pt, you will soon be rich.