[BSTPNM68]

I am trying to determine the best time to make a bet, either it be a favorite or dog.

I know there are no hard and fast rules, but generally I will wait as long as possible if I am betting against a "public team" (i.e., Phoenix Suns, NYY, SA Spurs, Dallas Mavs, CWS), but that is not a always such case (i.e., I felt a lot of money came on the Seattle Sonics yesterday, which was to my disadvantage as I bet Seattle ML late).

Additionally, I am hearing that is better to bet the favorite early and the underdog late, generally.

Are there any articles or books that people wrote on the subject? Any advise that people can provide? What is the best web site to help me track the movement of odds? My system does not support the latest version of SBR Lines--the old SBR lines does not allow me to track the odds history.

I want to thank you for your input in advance.

[bigboydan]

i'd like to know why your system does not support SBRLINES? i guess you can always use donbest as an alternitive.

[Mudcat]

I can talk about a few rules from my experience.

I'm not sure if this applies to what you were asking about public teams but I find that, when I want to bet against a team that has drawn a lot of action it is best to bet late - but not too late. Usually if a line moves a long way over the course of a day or a week, there is a late bounce.

I have a theory on why that occurs but that's not really important.

So I find that it's good to place the bet half an hour before gametime if it's a line that has been moving for a day, and a full hour before gametime if it's an NFL line that has been moving all week. It's hard because you see a line moving so much and you think it's got to keep going - but I got burned enough times that this is what I try to do.

And of course this is not a 100% rule and sometimes the line will keep moving and I'll feel like a fool.

I bet a lot of lop-sided moneyline dogs (over +200) and, as a rule, it is best to place those bets late. Again, it's far from a 100% certainty that the line will keep moving in your favor, but I have done research and it is well over 50%.

I find this also applies to lop-sided pointspreads on dogs, although the effect is not as pronounced.

[Dark Horse]

As early as possible or as late as possible. For early wagers the Pinnacle overnight line is very useful, because they use every digit (100,101,102,103, etc), instead of just 105, 110, 115. So Pinny is more sensitive. When the early Pinnacle line is about to move a half point (e.g. 105 lines now tilted 110 and 100), or has just moved, a book with a slower response time can often be caught watching. Don't ask which books.
Even if you don't really like the bet, it may be good to take it anyway. If you add a book like Skybook (free 1/2 pt), you can usuallly get a middle at a full point. If you do shop for middles remember that 1/2 pt lines are more profitable than full point lines. You can win both sides in a 6.5 and 7.5 middle, but only one side in a 6 and 7 middle, where the second bet would end in a push. Downsides: the line can move the other way, and Skybook only offers free 1/2 pt NBA wagers up to $300.

Middling doesn't have to be with even amounts. I hit one yesterday with most money on SAC -8.5 and much less on HOU +9.5, placed because large home faves often leave the backdoor open. SAC was up by 15 with less then half a minute to play, then gave up two 3-pt shots, to win by 9 pts.
So I'm not suggesting that all games are good targets for this approach. In my experience this only pays in basketball, where the margins are soooo slim. In the NFL it wouldn't make much sense.

Just thought I'd throw that in because you asked about line movements.

[The Great One]

Best time to place a bet? After the game is over. That way you know which side the fix occured on.

[Winston Smith]

If Firefox is your "system" problem, download the IETAB function in the first post of this thread.

[pags11]

I usually bet favs early and dogs late...