[Shark79]

I've been looking at this line at 2 different books and want to see what edge or pick would you go for:

Argentina +19.5 -110 or Argentina +19 +101


I dont think this game will end up in a blow out (as most of US games have been) these argentians have great players within the squad and it could go to a 15 - 16 point win for US.

What would you guys take on any of the 2 above.

Keep in mind that the US might win by 19

[durito]

19 +101

That 1/2 is probably not worth 11 cents

[Shark79]

Thats where edge is a factor?

[durito]

If the 1/2 isn't worth 11 cents (and i'm just guessing here) then the 19 would have a greater edge. Whether that's a positive edge is your call.

[TodaysAction]

If I were to wager upon this game, I'd look at the total first and then the USA ats side second. If you feel the South Americans can hang with the NBAers, it would only make sense to hit the total. Your money, your call. GL.

[Wheell]

USA might win by 19 but usa by 20 or more seems more likely. They have been destroying the better teams that they have faced.

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by durito

If the 1/2 isn't worth 11 cents (and i'm just guessing here) then the 19 would have a greater edge. Whether that's a positive edge is your call.

$0.11 may be a high amount for just 1/2 a point. But lets say the game ends up the US winning by 19 ... would the edge not make me lose the game?

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by TodaysAction

If I were to wager upon this game, I'd look at the total first and then the USA ats side second. If you feel the South Americans can hang with the NBAers, it would only make sense to hit the total. Your money, your call. GL.

Over 183 -110
Under 183-110

or

Over 183 -108
Under 183 -102


There sure is a higher possibility that this goes over looking at the amount of points both teams have made in there previous games. Therefore the over 183 -108 would be the bet here.

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by Wheell

USA might win by 19 but usa by 20 or more seems more likely. They have been destroying the better teams that they have faced.

Argentina has proven to be a strong group ... I blow out here would be devastating ... I dont see this game going that way IMO.

[daggerkobe]

I see USA winning by single digit so I would sell some of those pts for +money.

Argentina +16 +250 sounds about right.

[Shark79]

Dagger u see them winning by single digits? wow!! that line though seems about right

I see USA getting a win within the 15-16 pts.

[TodaysAction]

Originally Posted by Shark79

Over 183 -110
Under 183-110

or

Over 183 -108
Under 183 -102


There sure is a higher possibility that this goes over looking at the amount of points both teams have made in there previous games. Therefore the over 183 -108 would be the bet here.

Over 183, -108 would be wiser imo if one thinks the game will remain close/competitive. USA could have that "look ahead syndrome" but doubt Coach K would let that slide past the second quarter at worst. Over makes the most sense to me based on how you feel about the game.

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by TodaysAction

Over 183, -108 would be wiser imo if one thinks the game will remain close/competitive. USA could have that "look ahead syndrome" but doubt Coach K would let that slide past the second quarter at worst. Over makes the most sense to me based on how you feel about the game.

[SBR Lou]

Hmm, those points look tempting but this US team actually seems pretty intense. I would maybe take the under and hope for some good defense from the big men.

[durito]

Originally Posted by Shark79

$0.11 may be a high amount for just 1/2 a point. But lets say the game ends up the US winning by 19 ... would the edge not make me lose the game?

Sure, but you still made the better bet. In the long run that one game is irrelevant, consistently getting the better number is the most important thing.

If you had a choice between +19 +101 and +25 -500, and you took the first and they lost by 24, you still made the better play.

[Shark79]

Under -183 -102 would be your choice, unfortunately this comes out of Pinnacle Lines.

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by durito

Sure, but you still made the better bet. In the long run that one game is irrelevant, consistently getting the better number is the most important thing.

If you had a choice between +19 +101 and +25 -500, and you took the first and they lost by 24, you still made the better play.

In simple words ... if u lose .. u lose less.

[chipper13101]

Guys, my money is on the Redeem team to cover the spread. It's payback time for the semifinal loss in the 04 Olympics, and i think they'll come out guns a blazing. The gold medal game will be anticlimatic, emotion-wise compared to this.

[ZXCVBNM123]

Don't get caught up in the hype! The Argentine hype I mean.

The US will steamroll through whoever they play. This isn't 2004.

[big joe 1212]

Argentine only has Ginobili, the US will sufficate him!!!!!!!!

[max_asdf]

the 0.5s are never worth it

[max_asdf]

in baseball too

[donjuan]

In simple words ... if u lose .. u lose less.

Irrelevant.

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Irrelevant.

then can u please explain?

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by big joe 1212

Argentine only has Ginobili, the US will sufficate him!!!!!!!!

Have u seen them play?

[daggerkobe]

Argentina is more than Ginocchio.

Here's a in-depth roster I found:

http://www.atthehive.com/2008/8/1/58...-basketball-pr


They got 5 current & former NBA players with some skills.

[donjuan]

then can u please explain?

Losing less when you lose is not relevant to sports betting discussion. Getting better than fair value for an event is all that matters.

[chipper13101]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Losing less when you lose is not relevant to sports betting discussion. Getting better than fair value for an event is all that matters.

don't think so, buck. Money management is VERY important.

[fiveteamer]

buy low sell high, take the points.

[donjuan]

don't think so, buck. Money management is VERY important.

Money management is important, indeed. I should have added "when deciding on whether or not to place a bet" to the end of my previous post.

[durito]

Originally Posted by Shark79

then can u please explain?

The point we are making is you want to find the right price, irregardless if it's -200 or +103.

If say this were an NFL game with a spread of -3, we could use the 1/2 pt calculator with historical push probabilities to find a reasonable estimate of the value of -3 compared to -2.5 or -3.5.
If you have to chose between -3 -110 and -2.5 -120, the choice is easy (-2.5) -- which is why books won't let you buy that 1/2 for 10 cents anymore.


The difference here is that there have been hundreds of NFL games with spread of -3, while I imagine there have been very few Olympic games with spreads of 19, thus there is no data you could use to find the value of that particular 1/2 pt. Which is not to say that you couldn't make that determination, you can it would just take a different method.

My guess that this particular half was worth less than 11 cents was just that, a guess. Nevertheless if you look at NCAAB games where there is a decent amount of data for -19, you'll see half points in this spread range to be worth less than 10 cents historically. I certainly wouldn't use that info to base a bet off of, but you should get the idea of what I'm trying to say.

[Dark Horse]

I'm not betting on the game, but if I was, I'd take Argentina 1Q and 1H. Teams have been able to keep it close early on.

[jjgold]

Our defense is just too strong for these Euro teams

When is tip off?

[Shark79]

Originally Posted by jjgold

Our defense is just too strong for these Euro teams

When is tip off?

South America u ment, right?

Tip off is at 7:15 AM tomorrow

Line is now at -20.5 -105 or +20.5 -105

[reno cool]

argentina+20.5 -110 and ml +1500