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  1. 04-09-06 02:52 PM #1
    imgv94
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    Default How many times can someone lose my 1 run?

    Is this common? When you have lost 4 games in 2 days
    by 1 run that is just pure salt. When u have lost 8 games
    by one run already in a short season that is more salt.

    I am tired of losing by 1 run, I kinda want to cry. This
    is just unfair. Saltmines are forming in front of me. I mean
    common sense tells me to battle on and things should
    turn around since the teams your betting are right there
    and just barely losing. But how much torture can one
    take?
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  2. 04-09-06 04:19 PM #2
    mlwitchking
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    just to let you know, about 30 percent of games are decided by 1 run. so, lets assume you pick teams that have an average chance of winning of 50% for simplicity. you have 8 games losing by 1 run. the chance of picking a losing team by one run is 15%. if everything was fair, you should have picked a total of 53 games (8/.15). however, there is variance. so, to lose 8 games by one run, you realistically have picked between 30 and 80 games so far in the season.
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  3. 04-09-06 04:41 PM #3
    bigboydan
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    somebody a long time ago had a real nice write up on this one. i wish i could remember who it was though. if i remember right, last season it was like a 67% clip on this one.

    on a side note...

    the chicago white sox last season won roughly 35-40 games last year by 1 run. that was incredable last season.
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  4. 04-09-06 04:48 PM #4
    tacomax
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    "A miss is as good as a mile" as my mother would say.
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  5. 04-09-06 07:35 PM #5
    Illusion
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    It's not common im, it's just bad luck.
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  6. 04-09-06 09:52 PM #6
    freebie
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    Not sure if your games lost by 1 run are favorite or dog.

    if it's dog, maybe buy a lil insurance on Runline. I know the juice can be heavy at times, but it's better than losing. Maybe this can help turn you 1 run losing games to better luck.
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  7. 04-10-06 06:06 PM #7
    Willie Bee
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    White Sox were 35-14 in 1-run games during their 2005 title run ... LINK TO CLEVELAND PREVIEW WITH STATS ON THIS

    I don't have exact stats, but my guess is that each team averages being in 1-2 run games at least half the season, hence the 1½ run lines you see. The Astros lost eight times by 1-run in starts by Roger Clemens alone in 2005. Maybe we should call it the Rocket Effect when someone hits a string of 1-run losses
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