[Steeltown]

This is an honest question. When you say betting on games where you see the number move are you saying to bet with the public? I always assumed it was smart to bet against the public. Afterall, the books usually beat us players right? What do you mean by betting with the movement? Dont they just move lines based on action on that particular side?

[Cloak & Dagger]

to hell with what the public does

look at the OPENER from vegas

then compare

[BeatTheJerk]

i think i could answer this for you Steeltown but i really don't wanna put the time and effort in this to do so ........... sowwe

[dwaechte]

Watch Justin7's video on line movements, you should be able to deduce it from that.

And hate to have to point this out, but if you're asking a question like this you have no business betting dimes on games, as you say you do.

[Steeltown]

My point is that the Browns were the huge public play tonight. You guys are getting crushed right now. The line went from +3 to -1. Hence the players lose and the books win. **** watching the line move. I know how to pick winners. Just look at the contest and the games ive given yu.

[jtuck]

Fading the public in football can work if you pick your spots, but its the opposite on baseball

[dwaechte]

Originally Posted by Steeltown

My point is that the Browns were the huge public play tonight. You guys are getting crushed right now. The line went from +3 to -1. Hence the players lose and the books win. **** watching the line move. I know how to pick winners. Just look at the contest and the games ive given yu.

Bragging or acting like you know shit that isn't based on logic after less than 500 plays or so is simply ridiculous.

[Al Masters]

Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk

i think i could answer this for you Steeltown but i really don't wanna put the time and effort in this to do so ........... sowwe

So why even post this

hmmm, let me see, i think i'll tell the OP that i know the anwser to
his question, but don't have time to tell him.

Classic self serving post...........

[BeatTheJerk]

i was being a jerk AL Masters , i can't break character maaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnn !

[BeatTheJerk]

and it's actually called a "self absorbed" post as i like to call it lol j/k

[pavyracer]

The lines don't move by the public. Books artificially move lines to induce betting from squares.

[Thor4140]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

The lines don't move by the public. Books artificially move lines to induce betting from squares.

Pavy you might get 100 people on the whole planet to believe this but you are absolutely right to a point. for years i have been arguing with clowns trying to tell me the books want equal action on both sides and nothing else. Biggest Myth in wagering.

[pavyracer]

Originally Posted by Thor4140

Pavy you might get 100 people on the whole planet to believe this but you are absolutely right to a point. for years i have been arguing with clowns trying to tell me the books want equal action on both sides and nothing else. Biggest Myth in wagering.

Let me give you an example. If a sharp bets $100,000 on a certain team at +3.5 in football the book will move the line to -4 instead of +3 to induce more betting by squares that think the line is being bet heavily down whereas it's actually the opposite that happened.

[durito]

The public doesn't move lines (at least not to the same extent). Sharp money moves lines.

[jtuck]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

Let me give you an example. If a sharp bets $100,000 on a certain team at +3.5 in football the book will move the line to -4 instead of +3 to induce more betting by squares that think the line is being bet heavily down whereas it's actually the opposite that happened.

[donjuan]

View Post
Let me give you an example. If a sharp bets $100,000 on a certain team at +3.5 in football the book will move the line to -4 instead of +3 to induce more betting by squares that think the line is being bet heavily down whereas it's actually the opposite that happened.

Mind boggling.

[Al Masters]

Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk

i was being a jerk AL Masters , i can't break character maaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnn !

Alls well BTJ........i didn't realize you were j/k.

Actually self-serving and self -absorbed are very close in definition.

I took your post to the OP as you letting all know you knew the answer without giving it thus.....self serving "to further one's self
interest"....the INTEREST in your post was to let others know you knew the answer.(that's what i thought before you said you were joking).

Self-absorbed basically means preocupied with one's interest, which i certainly couldn't claim of you, since i don't know you that well.

Once again for my misinterpretation of your post.

[JT16]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

Let me give you an example. If a sharp bets $100,000 on a certain team at +3.5 in football the book will move the line to -4 instead of +3 to induce more betting by squares that think the line is being bet heavily down whereas it's actually the opposite that happened.

If this was true, why in the **** would the sharp put all of his stake in at one time. Lets say he puts 50k down at first and then waits for the book to "raise the line" and bets the rest at the better line. Not to mention every single sharp would hammer that book if they knew that the line would be moved in their favor if one of them bets heavy on one side.

There is so many holes in your theory I really can't waste my time explaining myself.

[JT16]

Originally Posted by durito

The public doesn't move lines (at least not to the same extent). Sharp money moves lines.

Sharp money and the public can move lines. Preseason football lines are soft, so many things can change in a short time that is why you see lines swing 3+ points.

Lines don't move very much in the NFL. These week one lines have been up for more then a month and none of them have moved that much.

[Steeltown]

Originally Posted by JT16

If this was true, why in the **** would the sharp put all of his stake in at one time. Lets say he puts 50k down at first and then waits for the book to "raise the line" and bets the rest at the better line. Not to mention every single sharp would hammer that book if they knew that the line would be moved in their favor if one of them bets heavy on one side.

There is so many holes in your theory I really can't waste my time explaining myself.

EXACTLY! Some of these guys on this forum are clueless. Over thinking is the reason for half of their losses. The other half are just not knowing shit about sports! If any of you think Im bragging Im not. I could care les about this contest money and I will gladly donate any winnings to someone who needs it for something legit. If you want me to place my picks on here for you to see, I dont have anything against that. Its just not something I usually do because i would hate to have someone follow me and then Im responsible for their losses if Im wrong. I dont guarantee any picks. I just win at a high rate. I will give you my pick on any game if you ask for it.

[Al Masters]

JT16, What happened to the " the most retarded comment i've heard in my life". LOL

[BeatTheJerk]

Originally Posted by Al Masters

Alls well BTJ........i didn't realize you were j/k.

Actually self-serving and self -absorbed are very close in definition.

I took your post to the OP as you letting all know you knew the answer without giving it thus.....self serving "to further one's self
interest"....the INTEREST in your post was to let others know you knew the answer.(that's what i thought before you said you were joking).

Self-absorbed basically means preocupied with one's interest, which i certainly couldn't claim of you, since i don't know you that well.

Once again for my misinterpretation of your post.

AL Masters i just got a headache when i attempted to read that , but i think i hear you pal

[JT16]

Originally Posted by Al Masters

JT16, What happened to the " the most retarded comment i've heard in my life". LOL

It is up there. I just hope this dude isn't serious. Some of the stuff I read on here is hilarous.

[BeatTheJerk]

someones trying to get cute huh ? oh well "fo get about it"

[Al Masters]

BTJ, I smoked this sick weed, thus the confusion in my last post.

[BeatTheJerk]

[jtuck]

Originally Posted by Al Masters

BTJ, I smoked this sick weed, thus the confusion in my last post.

Good to see i'm not the only one that tokes and then makes long rambling posts

[Al Masters]

Originally Posted by JT16

It is up there. I just hope this dude isn't serious. Some of the stuff I read on here is hilarous.

No it's not up there, but it may be for the better that you took it away.

[BeatTheJerk]

AL Masters that sick weed will make the mind go places it has not gone before , don't you love it ?

[pavyracer]

It's not a theory. I worked as an assistant manager at a sports book for 2 years. This is what we did. We always baited the squares to make bad bets.

[TodaysAction]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

Let me give you an example. If a sharp bets $100,000 on a certain team at +3.5 in football the book will move the line to -4 instead of +3 to induce more betting by squares that think the line is being bet heavily down whereas it's actually the opposite that happened.

No $100,000 wager will move the line that much. For you to attempt to suggest otherwise is, in my opinion, foolish. Thanks for the tonight. Before I forget, if that way works for you, congrats.

[Al Masters]

Originally Posted by jtuck

Good to see i'm not the only one that tokes and then makes long rambling posts

jtuck,

Definitely not the only one here that smokes bud.


===========`````````

[Al Masters]

Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk

AL Masters that sick weed will make the mind go places it has not gone before , don't you love it ?

Yes, they call it JACK HARE.........GOOD STUFF

[Gorzy]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

It's not a theory. I worked as an assistant manager at a sports book for 2 years. This is what we did. We always baited the squares to make bad bets.

[pavyracer]

Gorzy you dumb fukk tennis rat. I needed the money for college. It was a descent job. It's not like I was a tout. Get it son? It was a fukkin job to help me pay the tuition. Moron!