[SBR_John]

OK, alright Spiro didn't give it to me but I did stay at a Holiday Inn!

My thread got moved to the baskets forum(rough bunch of mods, dam!) but shoot some holes in this or tell me to load up!
NBA Western Conference notes

[bigboydan]

sense when did you ever stay at a holiday inn. the prick told me that your just pitch a tent in the park when your traveling

i see your angle john, but anything can happen in the playoffs. so, with that being said i personaly would not chance it myself.

[SBR_John]

Actually the only way this bet losses is if Phoenix gets knocked out of round 1 or 2. Or neither San Antoni or Dallas make it to the western finals.

So the way I figure it this puppy cashes if the suns get by the Lakers in rd 1 and either Denver or Memphis in Rd 2. I could see both those being sweeps.

[Ganchrow]

Actually the only way this bet losses is if Phoenix gets knocked out of round 1 or 2. Or neither San Antoni or Dallas make it to the western finals.

I'm not sure I completely understand. In terms of the Phoenix future, what would be the problem with neither San Antonio nor Dallas making it to the conference finals? Wouldn't that tend to increase the value of the future?

[SBR_John]

I'm not sure I completely understand. In terms of the Phoenix future, what would be the problem with neither San Antonio nor Dallas making it to the conference finals? Wouldn't that tend to increase the value of the future?

Uhhhhhh yes I guess it would. So the play is a winner if just Phoenix makes it to the final?

[Ganchrow]

Uhhhhhh yes I guess it would. So the play is a winner if just Phoenix makes it to the final?

Well it is conceivable (although only likely under the most pathological of circumstances) that they make it to the finals as more than a 2.19/1 dog (or more precisely, given the likely Pinnacle spread as more than about a 2/1 dog). In such case you'd not be able to profitably get out of your bet.

But I'm interested in your thinking behind this behind this. What are you estimating maybe an 85% chance of winning round 1? Maybe 80% chance for round 2? Better than that? Then what about about against Dallas or SA in the finals?