[robzilla]

Last night I read Ganch's articles on Kelly criterion.

I'm not very good at math, but I think I get the basic concept.

my question is how do u calculate Win Probability/Edge?

[pat venditto]

kelly is a bullshit theory. its not handicapping it's a modified martingale.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Originally Posted by pat venditto

kelly is a bullshit theory. its not handicapping it's a modified martingale.

That's so far from the truth, it's silly.

[durito]

Originally Posted by robzilla

my question is how do u calculate Win Probability/Edge?

that's the million $ question

[robzilla]

does it mean that the Red Sox 61-46 edge is 75.4% vs. a .500 team?
what is it based on?

[Sinister Cat]

Originally Posted by robzilla

does it mean that the Red Sox 61-46 edge is 75.4% vs. a .500 team?
what is it based on?

it's based on whatever model you develop-- you still have to cap the games to determine the probability of the outcome. Kelly just tells you how much of your bankroll to bet once you've figured that out.

[durito]

No.

Kelly is a staking strategy, it tells you nothing about your edge/win %, those are factors you have to figure out on your own (with a model or some other handicapping method)

[LT Profits]

In other words robzilla, you have to handicap the games yourself and determine what you feel the proper odds should be. How this is done varies from capper to capper.

Once you have estimated what you feel the proper odds should be, THEN you turn to Kelly if it looks like you have an edge, to determine what bet size should be.

[robzilla]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

In other words robzilla, you have to handicap the games yourself and determine what you feel the proper odds should be. How this is done varies from capper to capper.

Once you have estimated what you feel the proper odds should be, THEN you turn to Kelly if it looks like you have an edge, to determine what bet size should be.

But depending on what ur system is, the % is gonna be different for alot of people. Some people might think a 2% edge is awesome.

[pat venditto]

same ammount on every bet. no ****ing kelly or john or eugene criterion.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Rob,

Google for sports win probability models. That will get you pointed in the right direction.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Originally Posted by robzilla

But depending on what ur system is, the % is gonna be different for alot of people. Some people might think a 2% edge is awesome.

As long as your model isn't inherently flawed, any edge is awesome.

[durito]

Originally Posted by robzilla

But depending on what ur system is, the % is gonna be different for alot of people. Some people might think a 2% edge is awesome.

Here's what you do rob:

You are a 75% picker, so at -110 your edge is 43.182%, a 1/2 kelly bet will be 25.4% of your bankroll. Starting with a roll of $1,000 you should have $38,081,436,386,372,656 after just 300 bets.

[CrazyL]

I assume one has to HAVE an edge to calculate it?

[donjuan]

Originally Posted by pat venditto

kelly is a bullshit theory. its not handicapping it's a modified martingale.

Who claimed the Kelly criterion was handicapping? It's a staking strategy for advantage gamblers who are looking to grow a sum of money as quickly as possible.

[reno cool]

I think it is kind of inversely proportional to Martingale. If you overbet Kelly you will almost bust most of the time, unless you run particularly good and then youll make a fortune.

[LT Profits]

If you overbet Kelly, it probably means you overestimated your edge. If you know what you are doing handicapping-wise, it is comical to put Kelly in the same sentence as Martingdale.