[LT Profits]

I mentioned in the other thread that you won't go wrong betting Unders in Week 1 (and Hall of Fane Week). In fact, their is a linear correlation between the preseason week and the Over, so you should bet Unders early (especially Week 1 and HOF) and Oers late (especially Week 4).

ALL PRESEASON GAMES (2000 through 2007)
Week	Over	Under	Push	Over %	Avg Pts
1/HOF	120	160	4	42.9%	34.42
2	114	132	6	46.3%	36.75
3	124	124	0	50.0%	38.24
4	130	122	0	51.6%	37.64
TOTAL	488	538	10	47.6%	36.69

[LT Profits]

Also note that in Week 1 and HOF, if the total is 36 or higher, the Under is 78-48, 61.9%.

In Week 4, if the total is 36 or lower, the Over is 66-38, 63.5%

[durito]

Only one total at 36 this week and none higher.

[Brady2Moss]

I cant believe pinny has such high limits on preseason action 4K/1.7K

[durito]

Mine are only 3 and 1.

They will go up closer to game times.

[pavyracer]

Also bet the under in every soccer game in Europe that starts in July or August and the game temperature is above 80 degrees at game time. I cashed two soccer under games today where the temperature was 82 and 87 degrees respectively in each game.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

Also bet the under in every soccer game in Europe that starts in July or August and the game temperature is above 80 degrees at game time. I cashed two soccer under games today where the temperature was 82 and 87 degrees respectively in each game.

You are obviously being sarcastic, but there is sound logic why Unders do so well early on, especially the first game when each team seeningly plays 100 players.

[pavyracer]

I'm not sarcastic. All European Leagues at the beginning of the season are unders because of the hot weather in August. Look at the stats of the first four weeks of the Turkish, Greek and French leagues. 75% or more are unders. Try soccerway.com or soccerstats.com.

If you want to be a succeful bettor you have to know how to cap and bet the soccer games. I made more that $2,000 this week betting on draws and unders on various obscure leagues and friendlies (preseason as we call it here in the US).

[LT Profits]

Sorry pavy, I apologize then.

[pavyracer]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Sorry pavy, I apologize then.

It's OK. Maybe the same reason the August soccer games do well in unders applies in football (hot weather).

LT, is it possible to break down the preseason games in football in outdoor and indoor games on your list to check if the unders tend to be more prominent in outdoor stadiums where the heat and humidity is definitely a factor?

[LT Profits]

That is hard to do because so many preseason games are played at venues aother then the teams' normal homes.

[Brady2Moss]

Betting preseason just seems like something a degenerate gambler would do. Not saying you can beat the hell out of the lines, just doesnt seem smart

[pavyracer]

Originally Posted by Brady2Moss

Betting preseason just seems like something a degenerate gambler would do. Not saying you can beat the hell out of the lines, just doesnt seem smart

You are very wrong. I made $2,000 this week betting preseason soccer. I'm quite sure that betting preseason football will be very very good to me again this year.

[Brady2Moss]

Pavy, I wasnt talking about preseaon soccer.

[Wilforth]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

You are very wrong. I made $2,000 this week betting preseason soccer. I'm quite sure that betting preseason football will be very very good to me again this year.

The draws are very profitable, if you have a working criteria for identifying them. They are also more common in low-scoring leagues, e.g., Israel, Finland, etc.

[LT Profits]

While it is true that many degenerates bet preseason, those are the same losers that lose their ass in regular season.

There are plenty of pros that beat preseason regularly, and like I said, I personally find it easier to beat than regular season. In fact, I thing regular season NFL is by far the toughest sport to beat.

[max_asdf]

points spreads are all hard to beat..?

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

While it is true that many degenerates bet preseason, those are the same losers that lose their ass in regular season.

There are plenty of pros that beat preseason regularly, and like I said, I personally find it easier to beat than regular season. In fact, I thing regular season NFL is by far the toughest sport to beat.

I agree here LT , I never could win in the NFL until I started using a different strategy. That is the only sport that I will bet the opposite of what looks too good. That and learning to bet the home dogs.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by max_asdf

points spreads are all hard to beat..?

No, NFL lines are much tighter because teams play just one game per week and it is the most heavily bet sport in North America. Thus, the lines HAVE to be tight or the books would get killed.

[pavyracer]

Originally Posted by Wilforth

The draws are very profitable, if you have a working criteria for identifying them. They are also more common in low-scoring leagues, e.g., Israel, Finland, etc.

Draws pay +225 when teams of equal strength compete. You only need to hit 4/9 to have profit. Hot weather, rainy and windy, bad pitch and bad offenses are my best criteria.

[FreeFall]

so we should bet the unders in this upcoming preseason week on what looks to be two games?

So we should bet U36.5 in NO Saints v AZ Cards
and U36 Green Bay Packers v Bengals?

[LT Profits]

Those look to be prime plays FreeFall yes. That is not to say we can't come up with others that have nothing to do with trends.

[Brady2Moss]

Im laying half a unit on Under in IND @ WAS [31.5]

Anyone else with me?

[BuddyBear]

LT...do you happen to have the variance for each of those average points for the respective week in preseason. Thanks...

[LT Profits]

Buddy,

PM me your email and I'll send you my eight-year log so you can play with it however you wish.

[BigOrangeTitans]

This one goes over IMO fellas. I mean regardless of if its 1st,2nd,3rd or 17th on the depth chart, these guys have played this game their whole lives and they are pro's. Its not like you forget how to play football in the offseason and enter a preseason game hoping you can just call the right play. Furthermore, lots of garbage points are scored in the preseason as well as defensive scores(whether directly scoring, or giving the Offense very favorable field position)

Good luck guys.

[pimike]

no scoring here

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by pimike

no scoring here

[Actionbrett]

Also note that in Week 1 and HOF, if the total is 36 or higher, the Under is 78-48, 61.9%.

In Week 4, if the total is 36 or lower, the Over is 66-38, 63.5%

I would assume the above information is using the "opening line of 36" and not the closing, please confirm.

[Actionbrett]

Additional information..

Never bet a pre-season game to go Over the Total if the home team is an Underdog. Since 2001 home dogs have gone 18-44-2 to the Under (71%)

[Actionbrett]

bump so my above question could be answered

[Brady2Moss]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

I mentioned in the other thread that you won't go wrong betting Unders in Week 1 (and Hall of Fane Week). In fact, their is a linear correlation between the preseason week and the Over, so you should bet Unders early (especially Week 1 and HOF) and Oers late (especially Week 4).

ALL PRESEASON GAMES (2000 through 2007)
Week	Over	Under	Push	Over %	Avg Pts
1/HOF	120	160	4	42.9%	34.42
2	114	132	6	46.3%	36.75
3	124	124	0	50.0%	38.24
4	130	122	0	51.6%	37.64
TOTAL	488	538	10	47.6%	36.69

Im going Under 34.5 on all 3 games today (had to buy some points) Hope it cashes

[LT Profits]

Actionbrett,

I'm sorry, I never saw your question before. No, these are Pinnacle CLOSING lines pulled from covers.