[CrazyLou]

Rafael Nadal vs Andy Murray: Not many people were keen on backing Andy Murray last night, as I suspect Novak Djokovic had backers in an uproar all across the world. I was one of the lucky fools with my money invested toward the Scotsman, so I did have the luxury of watching the entire match- point after point.

Some say wind may have affected things here and there, but ultimately what it comes down to is great defense from Murray and far too many mishits from the #3 player in the world. Murray hasn't got my favorite serve on tour, but he was extremely aggressive and really dictated the pace of the game with Djokovic constantly seeming to swerve back and forth going after the extra ball. No matter how hard Djokovic rifled it back down the court, Murray kept it in play making for great television.

Both men exchanged breaks in the 2nd set, Murray twice with the advantage, but Djokovic came alive late in forcing the tiebreak. You just had the feeling though that if Djokovic forced a third set the Scotsman would collapse, hell, he was damn near livid about a few hecklers (rightfully so), but it seemed to shake his concentration far too long; against a player like Nadal who figures to get similar crowd support that is a grave mistake.

Nadal, on the other hand, was simply masterful in his dismissal of Frenchman Richard Gasquet, beginning with an epic 1st set TB which Gasquet actually won to the tune of an amazing 14-12. Afterward, it was all Nadal as he rolled along like a bowling ball. This may not be his preferred surface at all, but with his sights set on that #1 ranking which he so greatly desires, I think it's reasonable to believe we'll see that same eye of the tiger against the world #8 here. I don't feel Murray will have enough upstairs to endure the type of grueling challenge he'll undoubtedly face from the Spaniard, and with Rafa's returning skills if he simply serves well enough he's looking like the very likely champion of this event.

Pick: Rafael Nadal at
to win 2 units
(Note, I will track all my future wagers in decimal format so I'm able to better compare my own plays with Betfair, although I'm unfortunately unable to wager there)

[DoctorX79]

Gasquet have alot of talent but can never stand the heat.
Murray showed us he can compete with the bests and will go up in the ranking.
For sure Nadal is favorite and should become #1 but Murray is not that big of an underdog now vs Nadal on hard court
My play is Murray +415

[woodg8]

You risking 10 units on Nadal? Hmm... not too sure on that one, seems an awful lot of risk for 2 units. We saw how good Murray is defensively, but he's facing someone his equal, if not better at defending. Djokovic is an attacking player, so played right into Murray's hands. Nadal won't be attacking anywhere near as many points and he'll retrieve more of his shots, but this is far from a strollin the park.

He's at 1.22 on Betfair by the way so there's not that big a gap to what you got.

[DoctorX79]

Oh ya i forgot to mention matchups on hard court nadal won 2 in 2.
but look how close it is.
2007 Autralian open Nadal won in 5 sets 6-7(3) 6-4 4-6 6-3 6-1
2007 ATP Masters Series Madrid Nadal won in 2 sets 7-6 6-4

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The Aussie Open match was back when Murray's physical fitness was a bit dodgy, and he always lost 5 setters. With today's fitness he would have won that one - he really had Nadal on the rack.

On the other hand, the faster Greenset indoor courts of Madrid suit Murray much more than Nadal.

Looking at correct score - I think if Nadal wins the first, Murray has no comeback and it'll be 2-0 Nadal. However, odds there are terrible. There's a chance of a similar scoreline to last night, with Murray winning first but Nadal grinding it out - but again, poor odds (best +333). Once Nadal gets the equalising set it'll probably be all over for Murray, again like Gasquet.

Because the two Nadal results are over favoured imo, and Murray winning 2-1 is very unlikely, the remaining result is tempting: Murray 2-0 scoreline. Eurobet's price is also way out of line at +1100, with other books more like +700. Going for $100 on that.

[CrazyLou]

Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW

The Aussie Open match was back when Murray's physical fitness was a bit dodgy, and he always lost 5 setters. With today's fitness he would have won that one - he really had Nadal on the rack.

On the other hand, the faster Greenset indoor courts of Madrid suit Murray much more than Nadal.

Looking at correct score - I think if Nadal wins the first, Murray has no comeback and it'll be 2-0 Nadal. However, odds there are terrible. There's a chance of a similar scoreline to last night, with Murray winning first but Nadal grinding it out - but again, poor odds (best +333). Once Nadal gets the equalising set it'll probably be all over for Murray, again like Gasquet.

Because the two Nadal results are over favoured imo, and Murray winning 2-1 is very unlikely, the remaining result is tempting: Murray 2-0 scoreline. Eurobet's price is also way out of line at +1100, with other books more like +700. Going for $100 on that.

That's pretty good logic, naturally I'll be hoping to cash but I wouldn't be broken to borrow a tennis term seeing a poster like yourself win here.

[DoctorX79]

And the surface is slow so it helps alot a guy like Murray who has a very good return.
Im telling you Murray will win this one!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Better not be too slow - Nadal is invincible on anything slow, he wouldn't have lost a set yet if it was.

Rain in the air doesn't help Murray though :-(

[CrazyLou]

The rain is indeed getting a bit tiresome. Hopefully, there are no breaks midway through ceasing one players momentum.

[accuscoresucks]

damn nice write-up crazyl good info

[CrazyLou]

Originally Posted by accuscoresucks

damn nice write-up crazyl good info

Thanks buddy. Starts in roughly an hour and 10 minutes.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Hello hello, close so far. If this is going to a tiebreak, I see first serve points won:

Murray 92%
Nadal 63%.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Lol, 15-40 and Nadal gets a time violation and double faults. Ballsy from the empire, but correct - Nadal was way over the time there.

[DoctorX79]

What a terrific matchup so far!!

[CrazyLou]

Match point for Nadal.

[EagesBets]

crazyl, safina +150? yay or nay?

[accuscoresucks]

[DoctorX79]

Even if Nadal won this game was very close but Nadal took all his opportunity. Very very good game.
And i keep saying Murray +415 was the best bet!

[CrazyLou]

Nadal wins in straight sets, 7-6, 6-3.


1-0 +2.00