[CrazyLou]

Nadal -800?

[trytrytry]

-650

[CrazyLou]

Originally Posted by trytrytry

-650

Sounds like a pretty good guessguessguess....

[CrazyLou]

Pinny opens -450

[Santo]

Murray lines always inflated because of the UK influence on the market via Betfair.

[woodg8]

Well, the way he played against Djokovic, would you really bet against him?

I'm avoiding this match at the start of play, do some in-play betting instead

[DoctorX79]

Take Murray +415

[jjgold]

What time is this on?

[Stumpage]

7:00 E.s.t jj.....

[CrazyLou]

I made my breakdown here.

[Stumpage]

Incidentally, it's another rainy day here in Toronto with one thunderstorm already passing through, so hopefully they get the match in. 40% POP for tonight.....

[jjgold]

It seems like a good spot for Murray here, no way laying the wood wit Nadal on hardcourts..

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Really tasty prices at betmate/betdaq, you can get +450 after commission.

[CrazyLou]

Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Really tasty prices at betmate/betdaq, you can get +450 after commission.

Good luck in that case.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Originally Posted by crazyl

Good luck in that case.

I skipped - pinnacle/5dimes prices are suggesting Murray win at around 18%, so no value. Those two are pretty rarely wrong on tennis prices (they can't afford to be at 101/102% or so!).

More importantly, the value on a Murray win imo is in straight sets. He's not going to win from a set down, and very unlikely if he goes a set ahead and Nadal pegs him back (Nadal is a steamroller once he starts winning). Eurobet was +1100 on Murray to win 2-0, which is huge value imo if straight sets comprises most of that 18% above.

That's my thinking anyway :-)