[InTheHole]

don't agree with everything you presented (I like total and they have carried me through the first half; a unit for me is 1/50th my bankroll) however a well thought out...supported excellent post.

[BeatTheJerk]

this guy just single handingly sold me a bridge he is genius ..............

[BeatTheJerk]

well wait hold up a min i'm kinda kneejerking on that last post because i didn't read everything ............alot of solid points by this guy but i find myself disagreeing with him in atleast 4-5 rules that he states ............. but nonetheless alot of good solid info to use !

[donjuan]

It's funny in a strange sort of way when donkeys run hot and get respect from other donkeys.

Almost all of those rules are completely moronic and are a waste of bandwidth.

[BeatTheJerk]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

2-3
Bank: $1043

Sunday

Cleveland -138

$95 to win $69

- CLE are 7-2 in Lees last 9 starts vs. SEA.
- Tribe are outscoring Seattle 5.9 to 3.5 runs per game in the last 10.
- Silva's home ERA is 5.83, his day ERA is 6.69

Good luck

Is this an average size bet for you though ? you need to add a zero to your bets and bankroll if you wanna get anywhere pal ..............

[EaglesPhan36]

When some of you say "luck" is how you hit totals - that makes no sense. If you think "luck" is how totals go over or under ... then "luck" is what determines your side winning or losing as well. Research & stats is what you base your bet on. And then it's John Denver's rule - some days are diamonds ... some days are stone. Luck might come into play in a VERY, VERY small percentage of all plays.

[BeatTheJerk]

69 dollars can't even fill up my Lexus for the week ..........

[durito]

i disagree with 1-15

[TheLock]

Originally Posted by donjuan

It's funny in a strange sort of way when donkeys run hot and get respect from other donkeys.

Almost all of those rules are completely moronic and are a waste of bandwidth.

You're just a little ray of positivity aren't you?

Every time you post it's like a fvcking black cloud rolls in and funeral music starts playing.

I could maybe understand your post if this was in the Think Tank etc, but this is Saint's thread. Go sh*t in someone else's thread to spread your doom and gloom.

[donjuan]

I don't like to see misinformation lauded as brilliant. Sue me.

[TheLock]

Originally Posted by donjuan

I don't like to see misinformation lauded as brilliant. Sue me.

I have no issue with that.


But your choice of words could be a lot more diplomatic. Calling fellow sports fans/bettors "donkey's" is in poor taste.

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by donjuan

I don't like to see misinformation lauded as brilliant. Sue me.

I'm not calling any of this brilliant. I wrote what works for me. As a matter of fact, I started the thread "Here's how I hope to get to 60%"

My bankroll is a joke now, but it use to run high. I lost the dough when I broke these rules. Do whatever works for you, and i'll do the same.

[jtuck]

I can agree with 2,4, 10, 11, and 12. The rest are fine if its what you want, but these don't come close to applying to everyone

[Brady2Moss]

I dont like following rules, i guess sports gambling isnt for me

[wallym]

I'm with you on this one. I know that people say parlay is a sucker bet...but looking at the risk-reward ratio, parlay is definitely worth a try. Not to mention if you have 60% strike rate on your 2-teamers.

All the best! Looking forward to your 2-teamer plays.

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

New Policy: 2-Teamers the rest of the year!! This is going to be fun!

[donjuan]

I love the old "it works for me" line. Always used by people who simply run hot over a small sample size for their "system". Not so coincidentally you hear the same types of things from people when talking about craps and roulette.

[smitch124]

Don Juan, what do you do to maximize your chances of winning?

[donjuan]

Please clarify what you mean by "maximize your chances of winning".

[durito]

Originally Posted by smitch124

Don Juan, what do you do to maximize your chances of winning?

bet the largest money line favorite you can find?

[rjt721]

Originally Posted by durito

i disagree with 1-15

Classic.

[smitch124]

This thread is St. Andrews rules for making slections and maximizing his return for his selections, what do you do to 1. Make your selections 2. Maximize the return from the selections that you make?

[pokernut9999]

I have to totally agree with Don Juan and Durito here.

[donjuan]

1. Find lines with value, whether they are -500 or +1000 (obviously MLB lines tend to be much closer to +100 than these extremes).

2. I don't seek to maximize my expected return but rather the expected growth of my bankroll. For this I use the Kelly criterion.

[smitch124]

Originally Posted by donjuan

1. Find lines with value, whether they are -500 or +1000 (obviously MLB lines tend to be much closer to +100 than these extremes).

2. I don't seek to maximize my expected return but rather the expected growth of my bankroll. For this I use the Kelly criterion.

Thanks for the response!
Appreciate it

[St. Andrew]

I have no problem opening up the floor to debate for people to discuss how they try to make money. That's what this forum is supposed to be. If you think my rules are stupid, bash away.

What do I care? There are people dying in Darfur, from Cancer, in Iraq. My little $1K bankroll strategy is pretty insignificant in the universe. But two-team parlays are fun.

[FreeFall]

Originally Posted by donjuan

I love the old "it works for me" line. Always used by people who simply run hot over a small sample size for their "system". Not so coincidentally you hear the same types of things from people when talking about craps and roulette.

have you ever posted consistent winning picks? Have you ever posted a winning system? Have you posted picks that come out winning in the long run?

[St. Andrew]

2-Team Parlay Record: 17-11
Bank: $1,027

Monday

Cubs/Angels (+156)

$93 to win $145

- Zona 2-7 in Unit's last 9
- Harden hasn't given up more than 2 ERs since June 8 (A's)
- Cubs outscoring Zona in last 10 games 5.1 to 4.5


- Byrd gives up 1 HR every 3.4 innings on the road
- Byrd is 1-8, 6.94 on the road
- Santana at night: 10-2, 2.99

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

2-Team Parlay Record: 17-11
Bank: $1,027

Monday

Cubs/Angels (+156)

$93 to win $145

- Zona 2-7 in Unit's last 9
- Harden hasn't given up more than 2 ERs since June 8 (A's)
- Cubs outscoring Zona in last 10 games 5.1 to 4.5


- Byrd gives up 1 HR every 3.4 innings on the road
- Byrd is 1-8, 6.94 on the road
- Santana at night: 10-2, 2.99

The Angels are around -200 which far exceeds your arbitrary -139 cutoff. If the Angels are a bad straight bet by your own rules, what makes them so good in a parlay?

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

The Angels are around -200 which far exceeds your arbitrary -139 cutoff. If the Angels are a bad straight bet by your own rules, what makes them so good in a parlay?

The play is +156 not -200. I think the Angels are going to win but I'm not willing to pay -200, because there's a chance they won't. Therefore, I get +156 by parlaying them with another I team I like, and I only have to spend $95 for a decent payout.

The -139 cutoff pertains to single plays, not parlays.

[Kingctb27]

I'm with you!!!

[B1GER1C828]

i disagree on a few...but for the most part..great read


playing run lines is very profitable...isnt it sumtin like 70% of favorites win by 2 or more(when they win...) so if ur getting +120 or better..its been profitable for me...

also, i dont think totals r necesarilly luck...i think u can hit well on them if u do the rite homework...

[durito]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

The play is +156 not -200. I think the Angels are going to win but I'm not willing to pay -200, because there's a chance they won't. Therefore, I get +156 by parlaying them with another I team I like, and I only have to spend $95 for a decent payout.

The -139 cutoff pertains to single plays, not parlays.

You've just increased the juice you are paying and increased your risk.

[head_strong]

Agree with most of what has been said....the bottom line is WIN, winning takes care of everything.

[MrX]

Originally Posted by head_strong

Agree with most of what has been said....the bottom line is WIN, winning takes care of everything.

Not always. With the staking strategy outlined by St. Andrew even playing with a very respectable 4.5% edge would lead to negative bankroll growth.

[durito]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

My lines are from The Greek. I get a dependable book, but the lines are always mega-sharp.

I'll book your bets using pinnacle lines.