[Jay Edgar]

(The good stuff is under "teaser tool")

This post reports the performance of the “Edgar line” over the last 3 weeks, from March 1-21.

(Yes, I recognize that it is a fairly small sample size. To be perfectly candid, I did not track it at this level of detail before I began posting the numbers here in late February.)

Once again, I do not myself – and don’t recommend – blindly following the estimated pointspread number as an indicator of what to play.

But if I would have done that over the last three weeks, I would have been all right.
======================================== ====
(1)
MARCH 1-21 – STRAIGHT BETS

(a)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 2.4 points or more:

44-38-3, with 2 "no plays" --– winning percentage of .537
(I am making the rather obvious–to-me assumption that the first Nash injury game and the first Iverson injury game are “no plays”)

(b)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 2.9 points or more:

38-31-3 --- winning percentage of .551

(c)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 3.2 points or more:

34-27-3 --– winning percentage of .557

======================================== ==
Now, here’s what’s interesting:

18 of the 38 losses in March so far have been by 4.5 points or less against the closing number.

So:

(2)
“EDGAR LINE” AS A TEASER TOOL

(a)
Using all games with a gap of 2.4 points or more between the closing line and the “Edgar line”:

Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?

yes-65, no-19, push-1

“winning” percentage:
.774

So a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.597

(b)
Using all games with a gap of 2.9 points or more between the clsoing line and the “Edgar line”:

Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?

yes-57, no-14, push-1

winning percentage:
.803

So a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.642

(c)
Using all games with a gap of 3.2 points or more between the closing line and the “Edgar line”:

Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?

yes-51, no-12, push-1

winning percentage: .810

so a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.653

======================
um . . . . holy cow!!!
=======================

I will put up a second post that has the game by game detail, for anyone who would like to see it.

Once again, I have tried to slice the data a few different ways to see if there is a particular KIND of play that has a standout level of success (big dog/little dog/favorite, home/ road, etc.)

But so far I have not unlocked anything beyond these “teaser tool” numbers – which are actually pretty exciting, to me at least.

[isetcap]

Well done, JE! Let's hope those numbers continue to hold up. They're looking good so far, and I like your approach.

[isetcap]

Hey Illusion,
I think you should consider putting this out in the Main Forum. This is great stuff and should be seen by more than just the Hoops freaks.

[Jay Edgar]

Here's the backup data.
Sorry about the formatting.
Improving it appears to be beyond me.

date-team-line-opp-"Edgar gap"-result-margin
1 CHA 5 UTH 2.4 W 2
1 PHI 5.5 HOU 2.8 W 10.5
1 NOK 8 LAC 5.1 L 14
1 SAC 3.5 CLE 5.5 W 10.5
1 BOS 5.5 MIA 9.3 L 1.5

3 ATL 4 SAC 3.1 L 5
3 NY 2.5 CHI 4 L 4.5
3 BOS 1 IND 4 W 2
3 SEA 7.5 DET 5.2 W 5.5
3 CHA 11.5 DAL 6.2 L 2.5

4 LAX 4.5 DET 3.5 W 13.5
4 TOR 5 NJ 3.7 PUSH 0
4 ATL 12.5 MIA 3.9 W 10.5
4 ORL 10.5 DEN 8 L 6

5 IND 2 PHI 2.5 W 3
5 CHI 4.5 CLE 2.7 L 14.5
5 HOU -11.5 POR 4.1 W 6.5

6 LAX 4 SAN 4 L 2.5
6 CHA 5.5 MIA 4.9 W 4.5
6 ORL 4.5 UTH 5.3 L 0.5
6 MEM 4.5 DEN 5.4 L 9.5
6 SAC 4 NJ 5.9 W 19

7 CHI -3 NJ 3 W 3
7 BOS 7 WAS 3.2 W 8
7 TOR 6 CLE 3.9 L 1
7 POR 15 DAL 6.2 W 9
7 ATL 1.5 GS 9.2 W 9

8 MIN 4 UTH 2.8 W 1
8 WAS 9.5 MIA 2.9 W 4
8 IND 4 HOU 3.9 PUSH 0
8 CHA -1 GS 5.6 W 1.5
8 BOS 2 PHI 7.6 W 9
9 PHI 1 DEN 5.3 L 3
9 POR 8.5 DAL 8.4 L 8.5
9 PHX 4 SAN NO PLAY (Nash)

10 MIA -9 GS 3.1 L 14
10 DEN 4 TOR 3.4 W 15
10 ORL 3.5 CLE 4.9 W 32.5

11 GS 2 ORL 2.4 L 9
11 WAS 4.5 DET 2.9 W 22.5
11 MIN 12.5 PHX 3.2 W 4.5
11 CHI 1 ATL 4 W 6
11 MIL 2 LAC 4.9 L 6

12 DEN 3 BOS 2.5 L 2
12 SAC -4.5 DAL 4.1 W 0.5
12 HOU 11.5 SA 4.4 W 4
12 POR 8.5 PHX 5.2 W 18.5
12 CHA 14 DET 8.6 L 2

13 NY 2.5 DEN 3.6 L 14.5
13 HOU -1 NJ 3.8 L 14

14 POR 9.5 CHI 4 L 19.5
14 NOK 11 SA 4.2 L 4
14 CHA 4.5 WAS 4.7 L 0.5
14 SEA 5 PHX 7.7 L 4
14 PHI 1 TOR NO PLAY (AI)

15 HOU 3.5 DAL 2.6 L 10.5
15 CHA 10.5 WAS 2.7 W 2.5
15 CHI 4.5 MIL 2.8 L 11.5
15 LAC 4.5 PHX 3.5 L 26.5
15 POR 12 NJ 3.8 L 1
15 ORL -3.5 UTH 5.4 W 2.5
15 TOR 7.5 DET 9 W 0.5

16 BOS 8.5 MIA 3.7 W 5.5
16 PHI 7 SEA 4.3 W 3
16 MIN 7 GS 5.2 L 1

17 PHX 5 SA 2.5 L 3.5
17 POR 11.5 CLE 2.9 L 3.5
17 WAS 0 DAL 3.5 L 10
17 DEN 5.5 MEM 4.9 L 8.5
17 PHI 11 LAC 6.3 W 1
17 ATL 1 UTH 8.1 L 9
17 NY 9.5 DET 8.3 W 11.5

18 POR 11.5 MIL 3.7 W 7.5
18 CHI 5 MIA 4.6 W 4
18 CHA 8 DET 7.8 W 3
18 DEN 5 NOK 12.7 W 20

19 LAX 5 CLE 2.4 W 4
19 PHI 5.5 GS 3 L 3.5
19 ORL 3 ATL 3.3 W 2
19 NY 7 MIA 4 L 4
19 MEM 6 UTH 4.2 PUSH 0

20 ATL 13.5 DET 2.9 W 6.5

21 PHX 6 UTH 2.8 L 17
21 MIN 3 MIA 3.5 W 7
21 CHA 1.5 ORL 3.7 W 7.5
21 GS 11.5 SAN 4 W 0.5
21 NY 1.5 TOR 4.5 L 3.5

===============
POSTSCRIPT --

22 CHA 13.5 CLE 8.7 W 11.5
22 CHI 4 IND 3.2 L 6
22 ATL 8 PHI 4.3 L 1
22 MIA 7.5 DET 3.5 L 1.5
22 SAC 4 LAX 2.7 L 3
22 DEN 2 SA 7.4 W 14

23 GS 9.5 DAL 3.0 W 10.5
23 POR 17.5 PHX 8.2 W 0.5

24 MIN 4.5 TOR 3.2 L 15.5
24 ORL 5.5 PHI 3.8 W 21.5
24 BOS 5.5 CLE 3.8 L 6.5
24 CHA 12.5 MIA 5.5 L 8.5
24 POR 11 SA 7.4 L 8

25 ATL 6.5 DAL 4.5 L 10.5
25 SAC 1 UTH 4.0 W 3
25 DEN 9.5 PHX 10.2 L 1.5

26 HOU 5 CLE 3.2 W 3
26 NJ 7 DET 3.1 W 12
26 TOR 4.5 MIL 3.1 L 4.5
26 SEA 7 SA 6.0 W 11
26 POR 6.5 LAC 3.7 L 7.5
26 LAX -7 NOK 3.5 W 2

27 NJ 4 PHX 10.4 W 42
27 GS -1 WAS 6.2 L 19

28 MIL 5.5 PHX 8.6 W 27.5
28 ORL 5.5 CHI 4.5 W 12.5
28 WAS 10 SAC 7.4 W 23

29 ATL 7 IND 8.2 W 8
29 TOR 4.5 MIA 6.3 W 0.5
29 NY 3.5 BOS 3.1 L 21.5
29 NJ -6 MEM 3.0 W 6
29 ORL 6 MIN 4.8 L 6
29 SEA 4.5 HOU 9.2 L 23.5
29 POR 6 SAC 4.2 L 10
29 GS -6.5 NOK 4.3 L 7.5

30 IND 3.5 PHX 5.8 L 6.5
30 LAX 5 SEA 4.9 L 6

31 TOR 5.5 PHX 9.6 L 8.5
31 ORL 5 DAL 8.4 W 14
31 NY 5.5 PHI 6.1 W 0.5
31 CHA 3.5 CHI 6.5 L 2.5
31 NOK 5 MEM 2.4 W 10
31 MIN 8 DEN 4.2 L 4
31 GS 3 SAC 5.6 P 0
31 SEA 1 LAX 3.6 L 12
31 UTH 6 LAC 3.9 L 9

1 MIA 5.5 CLE 4.1 L 1.5
1 WAS 11 SA 4.4 W 4
1 MIL -3 IND 4.0 W 4.0


UPDATED REPORT CARD:
MARCH 1-APRIL 1

GAP OF 2.4 AND UP
66-64 .508 ATS
95-36 .725 with 4.5 points added

GAP OF 2.9 AND UP
59-55 .518 ATS
84-33 .718 with 4.5 points added

GAP OF 3.2 AND UP
52-49 .515 ATS
75-28 .728 with 4.5 points added

GAP OF 4.1 AND UP
31-30 .508 ATS
44-17 .721 with 4.5 points added

GAP OF 5.0 AND UP
21-17 .553 ATS
28-10 .737 with 4.5 points added

[Illusion]

Hey Illusion,
I think you should consider putting this out in the Main Forum. This is great stuff and should be seen by more than just the Hoops freaks.

I agree bud. I'm gonna move it now.

[Mudcat]

I agree that the sample size is on the small side, however this a very intelligent methodology and all-around good stuff.

[isetcap]

I'm playing a 4-team NBA teaser using JE's ratings...

Orlando+13
Boston+13
Charlotte+19
Portland+18

In all of these games, there's a gap of well over 4 points comparing standard spread vs. JE's spread.