[Ganchrow]

The following is a breakdown by player of the number of winning scenarios out of the 32,768 remaining. The first, second, and third columns following the player's name correspond to the number of win, place, and show finishes respectively. (Note that if for example, two players tie for first place, then in this analysis each would receive credit for half of both first and second places. The next closest place in the rankings would then only receive credit for third place.) The last column represents the number of scenarios in which the player places in ANY of win, place, or show (either alone or jointly).

Player		Win	Place	Show	Any
---------------------------------------------
BigDaddy	3,855	1,974	2,588	8,764
pags11		3,260	3,061	2,607	9,354
Illusion	2,894	3,043	2,886	9,281
imgv94		2,883	1,384	1,444	5,991
LVHerbie	2,537	1,325	1,626	5,683
kdmfox		2,382	1,987	1,703	6,221
stump		2,043	849	890	4,017
sportsfun	1,704	1,501	1,525	4,882
bookie		1,347	959	831	3,308
goldseeker	1,212	1,708	1,732	5,182
JDK192		998	863	897	2,877
dog		963	1,035	482	2,636
Bill Dozer	931	1,983	1,221	4,373
goldengoat	909	1,042	674	2,703
bigboydan	772	1,311	1,598	3,948
mrmookie	703	1,544	1,057	3,427
geo378		630	347	487	1,470
xxx		603	1,075	1,203	3,166
Pingman60	427	761	718	2,027
David		419	1,463	1,173	3,173
ganchrow	389	1,658	2,234	4,717
Jonathan	289	366	415	1,176
Orange		230	213	170	640
5teamparlay	171	110	248	602
cooljh		76	187	382	709
darkghost	45	305	516	992
natrass		30	62	92	204
Winston Smith	30	105	234	462
awol256		16	65	98	228
InSpades	15	166	183	448
Sean		8	14	65	96
Willie Bee	0	182	410	642
Brick Tamland	0	86	236	403
MetraDynamix	0	24	90	124
Ira Wilton	0	12	35	63
presley177	0	1	5	12
Razz		0	0	12	12
aceking		0	0	4	4
yellowdragon	0	0	2	2
Dave		0	0	0	0
Greivin		0	0	0	0
jisav		0	0	0	0
picantel	0	0	0	0
scottyy11	0	0	0	0
TheTurk		0	0	0	0
---------------------------------------------
Total		32,768	32,768	32,768

A few interesting observations:

• Not all scenario are equally likely. Indeed some may beconsiderably more or less likely than others.
• It is mathematically impossible for any of Dave, Greivin, jisav, picantel, scottyy11, and TheTurk to finish in the money
• Winston Smith is currently tied for fourth place with xxx, however only 0.09% of outcomes have Winston winning while 1.839% of outcomes have xxx winning
• Although LVHerbie is currently stuck way back in a three way tie for 17th place, he still has the fourth highest number of 1st place scenarios

[BigDaddy]

How did you figure all that out? why would my place be lower % than show?


Thanks

[Ganchrow]

How did you figure all that out?

This results come from an old program I wrote when administering a NCAA tournament pool about 10 years ago.

Why would my place be lower % than show?

"place" and "show represent exactly 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively (NOT 2nd/3rd place or better). The terminology I had chose is a bit misleading.

[bigboydan]

this is some interesting stuff ganchrow. i was going to ask you the same thing, but bigdaddy beat me to it.

[Illusion]

Thanks for all of your hard work ganch.

[Ganchrow]

Likely 1st place winners and % of conditional scenarios given a specific national champion:

--(1)Connecticut	
Illusion	16.357%
pags11		15.967%
	
--(1)Villanova	
goldengoat	37.744%
dog		37.695%
	
--(1)Duke	
BigDaddy	67.041%
	
--(1)Memphis	
sportsfun	53.906%
JDK192		33.105%
	
--(12)Bradley	
Illusion	30.762%
BigDaddy	16.504%
pags11		14.990%
	
--(2)Texas	
stump		77.441%
	
--(2)UCLA	
imgv94		59.863%
Illusion	12.793%
	
--(3)Florida	
pags11		37.305%
	
--(3)Gozaga	
LVHerbie	40.625%
geo378		30.762%
Bill Dozer	12.500%
bigboydan	12.256%
	
--(4)LSU	
bookie		29.639%
	
--(4)Boston College	
kdmfox		76.953%
mrmookie	21.875%
	
--(5)Washington	
BigDaddy	12.646%
pags11		12.451%
	
--(6)West Virginia	
BigDaddy	26.367%
pags11		12.939%
	
--(7)Wichita State	
Illusion	16.992%
BigDaddy	12.109%
	
--(7)Georgetown	
BigDaddy	18.262%
	
--(11)George Mason	
BigDaddy	13.232%
pags11		13.184%

[Illusion]

That's pretty cool, thanks again ganch.

[pags11]

great stuff as usual ganchrow...

[Ganchrow]

The following are my exceedingly rough estimates of those players most likely (5% or greater probability) to finish in the money in the NCAA tournament. Ties for all places are considered fractionally.

Exactly 1st place:
pags11		22%
imgv94		9%
kdmfox		9%
BigDaddy	8%
sportsfun	7%
stump		5%
Illusion	5%

Exactly 2nd place:
pags11		15%
ganchrow	10%
goldseeker	7%
Illusion	6%
David		6%
BigDaddy	5%
kdmfox		5%
imgv94		5%

Exactly 3rd place:
ganchrow	14%
pags11		11%
Illusion	8%
goldseeker	6%
BigDaddy	5%

[pags11]

I can't wait for these games to start...

[Ganchrow]

8,192 scenarios remaining after tonight's early games:

Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
---------------------------------------------
sportsfun	1,319	1,022	681	3,119
pags11		793	656	698	2,265
LVHerbie	683	283	392	1,408
Illusion	640	913	1,021	2,752
bookie		549	367	344	1,330
imgv94		528	233	264	1,044
kdmfox		444	263	205	944
stump		423	181	145	804
JDK192		404	550	471	1,500
goldseeker	399	699	657	1,902
BigDaddy	351	130	379	918
bigboydan	253	376	404	1,116
Bill Dozer	232	554	264	1,076
xxx		219	303	323	912
mrmookie	170	280	137	605
dog		168	136	118	428
goldengoat	134	158	166	496
geo378		112	88	108	307
5teamparlay	84	66	40	206
Jonathan	82	160	185	478
Pingman60	74	77	86	253
ganchrow	54	328	377	872
Orange		45	101	62	220
David		29	198	260	511
Sean		4	4	24	32
darkghost	2	23	79	129
Willie Bee	0	29	250	306
Brick Tamland	0	12	43	90
Ira Wilton	0	5	5	12
natrass		0	2	6	10
cooljh		0	0	1	2
InSpades	0	0	1	2
Total		8,192	8,192	8,192

[imgv94]

Hey still anyones game?

[Ganchrow]

After tonight's games:

Player     	1st	2nd	3rd	Any
---------------------------------------------				
sportsfun	345	216	172	753
Illusion	319	348	362	1,082
pags11  	283	250	169	724
stump   	243	116	79	463
bookie  	214	130	127	509
kdmfox  	148	46	89	295
imgv94  	144	58	109	324
goldengoat	92	22	72	192
JDK192  	84	133	103	349
ganchrow	54	216	152	459
xxx     	36	85	148	292
Jonathan	31	49	60	160
5teamparlay	24	14	7	48
goldseeker	15	94	109	242
David   	13	99	152	278
Orange  	5	29	15	49
dog     	0	72	15	88
mrmookie	0	63	46	114
Willie Bee	0	8	56	76
Pingman60	0	0	7	14
cooljh  	0	0	1	2
Total      	2,048	2,048	2,048

[pags11]

what a night of games!...

[BigDaddy]

Wow i fell of the list!

[Ganchrow]

More exceedingly rough estimates of those players most likely (5% or greater probability) to finish in the money in the NCAA tournament. Ties for all places are considered fractionally.

Exactly 1st place:
Illusion	21%
pags11    	20%
sportsfun	17%
stump     	10%
bookie     	8%
kdmfox    	7%
imgv94    	6%


Exactly 2nd place:
Illusion	20%
pags11    	16%
sportsfun	9%
ganchrow	8%
David      	7%
bookie     	6%
JDK192    	5%


Exactly 3rd place:
Illusion	21%
ganchrow	10%
pags11    	9%
David      	9%
xxx         	7%
sportsfun	6%
imgv94    	6%
goldseeker	6%
bookie     	6%

[pags11]

survive and advance...

[imgv94]

Thats interesting cause there is alot of people ahead of me and
there names are not on that list? Cool! Congrats to pags and
Illusion!! Those are my buds! I knew that would make a game out
of it! I thought I was dead. At least I still have an iv in my vein!

[pags11]

let's keep truckin' imgv...

[Ganchrow]

Thats interesting cause there is alot of people ahead of me and there names are not on that list? I knew that would make a game out of it! I thought I was dead. At least I still have an iv in my vein!

You're the only person to have picked UCLA to go to the tournament finals. If UCLA does manage to make it that far, and if Villanova also comes through over BC, you'd be assured an in the money finish and would be the favorite to finish first. Otherwise, you're mathematically eliminated.

[imgv94]

You're the only person to have picked UCLA to go to the tournament finals. If UCLA does manage to make it that far, your prospects would be excellent. If not, you'd have next to no chance of an in the money finish.

Thank you ganchrow!!! Your the best man! Thanks
to J.P Bautista also!!

[JoshW]

Very cool ganchrow, no one else has potential contest outcome results so detailed.

[Ganchrow]

After toinight's early games:

Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
---------------------------------------------					
sportsfun	139	71	77	296	
pags11  	127	69	41	249	
imgv94  	80	29	22	131	
stump   	50	20	10	85	
goldengoat	46	11	36	96	
ganchrow	27	114	83	252	
bookie  	22	29	31	89	
5teamparlay	12	7	4	24	
goldseeker	7	54	57	125	
David   	2	18	13	42	
dog     	0	36	8	44	
JDK192  	0	32	30	72	
Illusion	0	14	52	92	
Orange  	0	9	4	13	
xxx     	0	0	33	33	
Jonathan	0	0	4	8	
Pingman60	0	0	4	8	
Willie Bee	0	0	4	8	
cooljh  	0	0	1	1	
Total      	512	512	512

[Ganchrow]

After tonight:

Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
---------------------------------------------					
pags11  	53	25	7	85	
sportsfun	35	20	16	71	
imgv94  	12	15	7	34	
goldengoat	12	6	6	24	
ganchrow	10	18	34	69	
stump   	4	3	3	10	
goldseeker	2	10	13	26	
bookie  	0	12	8	20	
dog     	0	8	4	12	
Illusion	0	5	20	32	
Orange  	0	3	2	5	
JDK192  	0	2	7	10	
5teamparlay	0	1	1	2	
David   	0	0	1	1	
Total        	128	128	128

[imgv94]

Ganchrow thanks alot bro! U are the best!

[Ganchrow]

Scenario by scenario breakdown.

[pags11]

awesome stuff ganchrow...

[Ganchrow]

Approximate expected values for remaining:

pags11		$364.30
sportsfun	$192.68
ganchrow	 $98.62
Illusion	 $76.03
goldseeker	 $73.67
imgv94		 $68.74
goldengoat	 $36.70
bookie		 $34.49
stump		 $16.63
dog		 $12.42
JDK192		 $10.69
David		  $7.69
Orange		  $6.24
5teamparlay	  $1.10

[Ganchrow]

Analysis of remaining 1st place scenarios (number in parens refers to number of winning scenarios):

Florida & UCLA regional finals victories
stump (2) wins 1st place if George Mason win DC region and Texas wins nat championship,
pags (30) otherwise

Florida & Memphis regional finals victories
[pags and sportsfun] (6) tie for first if Memphis loses to Florida or George Mason in national championship, otherwise
pags (18) wins 1st unless Memphis wins national championship, in which case
sportsfun (8)

Villanova & Memphis regional finals victories
sportsfun (24) wins 1st unless U Conn or Nova wins championship or
sportsfun wins 1st if Nova beats Memphis in finals,
pags (2) wins 1st if Memphis loses in nat semis and U Conn wins championship,
goldseeker (2) wins 1st if Memphis loses to U Conn in championship,
goldengoat (4) otherwise

Villanova & UCLA regional finals victories

UCLA wins national semis
imgv (12) wins 1st unless Nova wins championship, in which case
goldengoat (4)

UCLA does not win national semis
stump (2) wins 1st if Mason wins DC region and Texas wins championship,
goldengoat (4) wins 1st if Nova wins championship,
ganchrow (10) otherwise

[bigboydan]

i must say, thats some perty interesting scenarios ganchrow.

[pags11]

survive and advance...

[Ganchrow]

After tonight:

Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
---------------------------------------------					
pags11  	16	0	1	17	
imgv94  	6	7	4	17	
ganchrow	6	6	16	28	
goldengoat	4	2	2	8	
bookie  	0	11	3	14	
dog     	0	4	0	4	
Orange  	0	2	0	2	
sportsfun	0	0	6	6	
Total       	32	32	32

[pags11]

congrats to those that had UCLA...

[Mudcat]

You are an analyzin' maniac, ganchrow!

[SBR_John]

Damn... thats impressive. That would take me two weeks to figure out.