[pavyracer]

Will you bet some on France +380 to advance? My thinking is that France is better than Italy, they beat them in qualifiers, and they will expose the weak Italian defense on counter-attacks.

I have $50 on Romania +285. What will the value bet be for me assuming I like France? Put $50 on France at +385? Romania control their own destiny but does not mean they will automatically beat Netherlands.

[SBR Lou]

Does France need this match from a pts perspective?

[pavyracer]

Does France need this match from a pts perspective?

Absolutely! If France wins and Romania doesn't, France advances.

[Shark79]

Does France need this match from a pts perspective?

[SBR Lou]

Then I would bet France. They are the better team from my perspective.

[Shark79]

Absolutely! If France wins and Romania doesn't, France advances.

True ... Romania is the judge of this group. They will decide who moves forward. Might even be Netherlands and Romania for next round.

[pavyracer]

RSS,

I really believe that France will not lose this game. The Italians are plain awful. There is more talent on France's side. If they were given the obvious penalty and tied the game with Netherlands at 1-1 they could have won that game. They are very dangerous when cornered.

[SBR Lou]

I agree with Pavy.

[ZXCVBNM123]

Netherlands will probably rest their starters - yesterday does not set a good precedent since Portugal lost to Switzerland. Let's see how Croatia does with Poland, and if they rest anyone.

[pavyracer]

If that's what you think, the best was is to bet on France, not on the 3 way line, but the Asian handicap at even and +0.5 goal. If you are right, you will win some $(on a tie or French win). Don't hedge your bet on Romania advancing.

I can get my money back by betting on Romania not to advance at +110, which is better than betting France +0.5 at -150.

I believe betting on France +385 will guard me against a possible upset of Romania. I'm basically reducing my original +285 to +143 if Romania advances and keeping my original +285 if France advances.

[gordon gekko]

Pavy you are doing an amazing job I have tailed you on some of your picks keep up the good work pal.

[McBa1n]

A good problem to have - but Italy can win that ballgame.

[ryanXL977]

italy will beat france
france sucks

[pavyracer]

A good problem to have - but Italy can win that ballgame.

I believe that Netherlands will lose to Romania to eliminate facing either Italy or France in later rounds. This is me reading Van Basten's mind.

However, the probability of both Romania not winning a team they beat in the qualifiers and Italy beating a team they didn't beat in qualifiers all happening on the same day is remote.

[McBa1n]

Agreed - I'd just let the "Romania advance" ride. I don't think the Netherlands want to win this game at all... And I can't say I blame them.

[pavyracer]

Pavy you are doing an amazing job I have tailed you on some of your picks keep up the good work pal.

Thanks. I would like to also point out that I use money management in my bets. I am already up $2500 for the tourney so pay attention to how much money I bet on future games to adjudge your own risk of following any of my picks.

[lys3rg0]

RSS,

I really believe that France will not lose this game.

If Romania ****s it up, Italy can advance with a draw... they haven't won against France in 30 years, but they can get a draw anytime against this poor french defense.

there's no decent hedge, the situation is too complicated. i'd say let it roll...

[pavyracer]

If Romania ****s it up, Italy can advance with a draw... they haven't won against France in 30 years, but they can get a draw anytime against this poor french defense.

there's no decent hedge, the situation is too complicated. i'd say let it roll...

Doesn't Romania have goal differential against both Italy and France? Unless you think the Dutch will trash Romania with their subs.

[lys3rg0]

Doesn't Romania have goal differential against both Italy and France? Unless you think the Dutch will trash Romania with their subs.

http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf - check rule 7.08

h2h goal difference counts before general goal difference. with romania losing and italy getting a scoring draw against france, all 3 teams will have 2 points, so france and romania go home. the only draw that suits romania is 0-0, if they manage to lose by 2 or less. if italy manages 0-0 and romania also lose to holland by 3, italy goes through on UEFA coefficient. screwed up rules... if u ask me points and general goal difference should both count before h2h.

[pavyracer]

http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf - check rule 7.08

h2h goal difference counts before general goal difference. with romania losing and italy getting a scoring draw against france, all 3 teams will have 2 points, so france and romania go home. the only draw that suits romania is 0-0, if they manage to lose by 2 or less. if italy manages 0-0 and romania also lose to holland by 3, italy goes through on UEFA coefficient. screwed up rules... if u ask me points and general goal difference should both count before h2h.

thanks for pointing it out. Hell no! I'll ride my original +285 on Romania. UEFA has ****ed up the rules this year.

[Dark Horse]

If Italy and France share the points, then Romania can go through with a 0-2 loss...

As far as the Italy-France match, to use either of those teams as a hedge for your Romania play wouldn't make much sense. Historically, the Italians are very slow tournament starters who get better with every game.

In any case, Holland beat these two very strong teams, so I think that gives the Dutch the right to lose on purpose to Romania, to avoid playing either team again in the semis. I'd be shocked if Holland was going to help Italy or France.

(Then again, Romania beat Holland twice in qualifying, and topped the group, so the Dutch may have a reason to do away with Romania after all).

[pavyracer]

Thanks Dark Horse. After thinking about it I will let it ride. It makes sense for Holland to lose on purpose, not that Romania has a bad team.

I will instead make another play on over 2 goals on Italy-France game.

[gizmo2431]

Just read this whole thread... let it ride pavy!

[nasdaq888]

If Italy and France share the points, then Romania can go through with a 0-2 loss...

As far as the Italy-France match, to use either of those teams as a hedge for your Romania play wouldn't make much sense. Historically, the Italians are very slow tournament starters who get better with every game.

In any case, Holland beat these two very strong teams, so I think that gives the Dutch the right to lose on purpose to Romania, to avoid playing either team again in the semis. I'd be shocked if Holland was going to help Italy or France.

(Then again, Romania beat Holland twice in qualifying, and topped the group, so the Dutch may have a reason to do away with Romania after all).

If it is a score draw between Italy and France, no matter how many goals the Romanians lose, the Romanians are out. The head to head results between the teams are taken into consideration, and if Romania, Italy, and France all end up with 2 points each, matches between the 3 are taken into consideration. It means that points, goals difference, and goals scored between the 3 teams will matter as regards to the final standings.

Say Italy and France draw (tie) 1-1 and Romania loses to Holland......Romania, Italy, and France would have 2 points each between matches played with each other and they would each have a goal difference of +0 but Italy would qualify cause they would have scored more goals, ie. 2-2 (1-1 with Romania and 1-1 with France). Romania and France would each have a goal difference of 1-1 (0-0 between France v Romania, 1-1 Italy v Romania, and say for example a score draw of 1-1 Italy v France).

This qualification system is not new. UEFA had also applied this in the previous EURO tournaments.

And to make it simpler for you guys I have decided to paste the different permutations from somewhere:

"If Romania beat the already qualified Holland in the other match in the group, then the result in the Italy-France match will be immaterial.

The Azzurri have a number of possibilities to qualify though. If Romania lose or draw, Italy will progress with a win. If Romania lose, and Italy-France ends in a score draw, Italy will go through on a three way head-to-head because they will have scored more goals in the matches involving Romania and France.

If Romania lose by 1-0, 2-0 or by a three goal margin other than 3-0, and the Italy-France game finishes 0-0, then Romania will qualify ahead of Italy due to a better goal difference.

If Romania lose by a four goal margin or bigger, and Italy-France finishes 0-0, Italy will progress due to a better goal difference.

If Romania lose 3-0, and Italy draw 0-0, the two teams will have an identical goal difference, but the Azzurri will go through as they have a better UEFA Euro 2008 qualifying co-efficient.

The only way that France can qualify is by beating Italy, and hoping that Romania lose or draw with Holland."

[pavyracer]

Thanks nasdaq888 for your comments. It makes more sense to back the over 2 at -145 on the Italy - France game since a "scoring draw" or win by either team is what may get them through if Romania falters. There are is also the possibility of Romania advancing and the Italy-France game ends in more than two goals so both bets can be cashed.

[Richkas]

"If you had Romania to advance at +285 "


I would look into the mirror so I could see the queer that I had become.

[fifawcs]

Pavy im with you on Romania +130. There is no way Holland is going to try against this Romanian Squad. It could end up biting them in the ass.

[Rage1hp]

As much as I'd love to see Italy and France away from the competition (incresing the chance of portugal to win the euro), I belive Italy will manage the win today - they have been very, very unlucky, together with poor referees. One goal suffered by offside, one goal scored and disallowed by an non existing offside, plenty of good opurtunity's against romania. I don't see the world champions giving the win away to france. But then again - Netherland has a deciding factor here, but I still don't see them giving away a win. I mean. Yeah, they could face Italy or France in the semi-finals. But this way, they will face an also strong Spain who's football is very alike to holland. Italy is lacking defense. I belive Netherlands rather play Italy than Spain - they have the matchup studied, and motivation after such a huge win. Also, this is a euro. There are plenty of fans cheering for holland, I don't see them losing this on porpuse, altough they will play with the team B. I'm still holding to my Italy to pass the group phase, even tough the chances are minimal.

[pavyracer]

Bad beat on France losing a man early, Pavy. That being said, I pointed that betting France to advance was an imperfect hedge on your Romania position. Good luck on the rest of your Euro 2008 picks.

Nice point RSS. I took your opinion into consideration. This was the purpose of this thread. I made other bets if you look at my plays.

Thanks and good luck to you.

[Shark79]

There goes that prop.

[pavyracer]

There goes that prop.

Sharky, that prop was made before the Italy-Romania game. It was a missed penalty kick away from being cashed. Also you need to look at my total winnings from this tournament $2600, not the $50 lost prop.