An even chalkier play (AND a surprise) for Thursday morning

CrazyL · 06-12-2008, 01:24 AM

Rafa Nadal -2000
vs Kei Nishikori to win 1.25 unit

We all know who Rafa is, lets get to Nishikori. He's an 18yo Japanese star, dubbed the "Japanese Roger (Federer)" by those in his native country, and by all accounts he's an extremely talented, promising young player. His most notable accomplishment this far has been upsetting American James Blake in the Delray Beach tournament finals.

He is ranked world #113. He's had great training, I think he has a good heart, Rafa is his favorite player and all that, but as of this moment he doesn't have all the tools necessary to defeat his idol. Beyond that, if you're thinking "Rafa isn't on clay where he's superhuman", Nishikori up until this tournament had played only 4 times on grasscourt.

Andy Roddick laid the boot on Nishikori 6-2, 6-4 a little while back. This may start out 2-2 but relax, Nadal is too much for the young Japanese to handle right now.
Nadal 6-4, 6-1

Mardy Fish +600
vs Andy Roddick to win 1.5 unit

The #'s will suggest to back Andy, particularly that overwhelming 8-1 H2H advantage over Fish which figures to be in his head psychologically. Especially considering the lone match Fish did win was a couple of years ago.

Still, I think there's value here in that Fish is a turbulent type of player, good enough to force this beyond 2 sets, probably not good enough to win it in 2 unless Roddick helps him along the way, but I really see this going into a third. From there, Fish has to play well, but I don't think you ever want to lay an eye popping # believing you're going to deal with a third set (in BO3 structure).

Only .25u is risked here so don't go 7-30 on me, but these odds warrant the play. I honestly do see this one going three sets and Fish having an opportunity to pull the upset.
Fish 5-7, 6-2, 7-6

gordon gekko · 06-12-2008, 01:30 AM

Crazy I need you're help!

gordon gekko · 06-12-2008, 01:31 AM

I know you know your tennis can you check out the thread under this. It would be a big help thanks!!

CrazyL · 06-12-2008, 02:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gordon gekko

Crazy I need you're help!

Kick ass in tourney.

gordon gekko · 06-12-2008, 02:36 AM

Thanks Crazy you really helped me out.

BROOKLYN BOY · 06-12-2008, 08:34 AM

I've got:
Nadal -1852
Canas -204
Robredo -290
Baghdatis -260
Hewitt -240
Mahut +103

fiveteamer · 06-12-2008, 08:39 AM

I would bet Mardy Fish just cos he has a cool name.

LT Profits · 06-12-2008, 08:40 AM

Tough first set crazyl.

LT Profits · 06-12-2008, 08:46 AM

Looks like you got a break crazy. Fish retired after losing first set. I believe two sets need to be completed for action, correct?

CrazyL · 06-12-2008, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Looks like you got a break crazy. Fish retired after losing first set. I believe two sets need to be completed for action, correct?

Yep, pushed that. Did you happen to see what happened, I was asleep, obviously he retired but the score of the first set "looked" close as I said..Hell it went to TB..

CrazyL · 06-12-2008, 11:00 AM

Nadal -5.5 +100 looked really juicy too, but didn't get that in time since I've been farting around.

CrazyL · 06-12-2008, 12:00 PM

Here we go boys

Break his set Rafa!!!!!

CrazyL · 06-12-2008, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyl

Rafa Nadal -2000
vs Kei Nishikori to win 1.25 unit

We all know who Rafa is, lets get to Nishikori. He's an 18yo Japanese star, dubbed the "Japanese Roger (Federer)" by those in his native country, and by all accounts he's an extremely talented, promising young player. His most notable accomplishment this far has been upsetting American James Blake in the Delray Beach tournament finals.

He is ranked world #113. He's had great training, I think he has a good heart, Rafa is his favorite player and all that, but as of this moment he doesn't have all the tools necessary to defeat his idol. Beyond that, if you're thinking "Rafa isn't on clay where he's superhuman", Nishikori up until this tournament had played only 4 times on grasscourt.

Andy Roddick laid the boot on Nishikori 6-2, 6-4 a little while back. This may start out 2-2 but relax, Nadal is too much for the young Japanese to handle right now.
Nadal 6-4, 6-1

Called the first set beautifully, the second slipped away let a couple of break opportunities go, but the heart of a champion prevailed here. I'm so floored and impressed with his opponent, but he also likely scoped out Rafa with his tennis instructors to a tee, and Rafa had to adjust on spot. If this was WIMBLEDON, Rafa would've likely won 6-4, 6-3...
6-4, 3-6, 6-3

Tennis Record (The Artois Championship)
3-0-1 (4.75)