[buztah]

Maybe Obama loads up on Hillary at those odds and drops out. easy money.

[Ganchrow]

I'd assume it's because some bettors with preexisting Obama positions are taking in to account time-value-of money.

In other words, some bettors have profit and don't want to have to wait the nearly 3 months until the actual convention for it to be realized.

[JBC77]

There are rumors of a video where Michele Obama is at that church, basically ripping the sh1t out of white people, says the word whitey. They were supposed to drop it right after Hillary dropped out.....effectively destroying Obama securing an easy win for McCain

Word is.....they may drop it before she bows out. If it's the bombshell all the analysts think, it may be worth Hillary's time to hang in for just a few more days.

[guitarjosh]

There are rumors of a video where Michele Obama is at that church, basically ripping the sh1t out of white people, says the word whitey. They were supposed to drop it right after Hillary dropped out.....effectively destroying Obama securing an easy win for McCain

Word is.....they may drop it before she bows out. If it's the bombshell all the analysts think, it may be worth Hillary's time to hang in for just a few more days.

Yeah, a last minute bombshell that will cost Obama, or back room deals with superdelegates to get Hill the nomination.

[JBC77]

I guess if the video rumor is true......that would be one hell of a payout if you bet it.

Obama is assoicated with a lot of shady characters, only a matter of time before they come back to haunt him. He may win the demo primary....but he's done.

He insulted every white gun owner east and west of the Missippi and refered to his own grandmother as a "typical" white woman. The guy can't win a white state.

[Ganchrow]

I'd assume it's because some bettors with preexisting Obama positions are taking in to account time-value-of money.

In other words, some bettors have profit and don't want to have to wait the nearly 3 months until the actual convention for it to be realized.

You can currently pick up Obama on Matchbook at -3400, which is about -3469.39 after commission.

If we assumed Obama were now 100% guaranteed to win the nomination (which of course he isn't), then then this would correspond to an edge of 2.882%.

Considering that the acceptance of the nomination is about 85 days away (that's assuming it takes place on the third day of the convention, which I believe to be historically accurate), then this corresponds to an annualized return of about (1+2.882%) ^{365.25 85} -1 ≈ 12.987%.

It would have to each bettor to determine for himself whether 12.987% annualized (slightly less after taking into account the risk involved) is a sufficient return on investment.

[Ganchrow]

Well I don't understand that b/c the nomination is within a week of being decided, true the actual dem convention is a few months away but after he locks up 41 delegates that's it he wins, not sure what the price on Hillary not winning at that point will be but would have to become like selling a bond which interest rates nowadays are fukin nothin

The rules of these bets typically specify that the wager isn't graded until the actual nominating event.

Ignoring the slight risk of Obama dropping out prior to the nomination (for whatever reason), betting Obama at -3400 would be exactly like a buying a Matchbook bond.

[Ganchrow]

Not sure how you claim it's not 100% chance she won't win the nomination Ganch but you are clearly not paying attention to the news. It's over, she has conceded she has offered to be his VP, I mean I'm not sure what you consider a true 100% lock, but this is it.

It's certainly very, very close to 100%, but obviously not quite. For example ... what if he were to die?

But that was hardly the point of my posts insofar as they were written under the prevailing assumption that his nomination is indeed guaranteed.

[HedgeHog]

You can currently pick up Obama on Matchbook at -3400, which is about -3469.39 after commission.

If we assumed Obama were now 100% guaranteed to win the nomination (which of course he isn't), then then this would correspond to an edge of 2.882%.
Considering that the acceptance of the nomination is about 85 days away (that's assuming it takes place on the third day of the convention, which I believe to be historically accurate), then this corresponds to an annualized return of about (1+2.882%) ^{365.25 85} -1 ≈ 12.987%.

It would have to each bettor to determine for himself whether 12.987% annualized (slightly less after taking into account the risk involved) is a sufficient return on investment.

Race is over, but I won't put up Dollars to win pennies. Not worth it with that crazy bitch. Perhaps Bill and she have hired a hitman; they certainly have the money for it. I'm just saying...

[jjgold]

you got to be nuts to vote for that black piece of garbage

He is black trash

blacks cannot coach let alone run a Country

[mathdotcom]

Ganch

How do old Obama bettors cash in, today, by betting on Hillary? If they scalp they still have to wait the 3 months.

[Ganchrow]

How do old Obama bettors cash in, today, by betting on Hillary? If they scalp they still have to wait the 3 months.

Yes, you're right, the two Matchbook markets aren't actually fungible.

Obviously in the case of the Hillary YES bet it would largely be those with Hillary NO positions who'd be doing the betting (including those arbing between the two markets).