[topgame85]

Here we go 2-0 yesterday with the overs and I really like this play tonight lets get um again!

[Tsoprano]

im on it.

[topgame85]

Good deal T, this one looks real good from what I see lets get it.

[nysmoneyman]

JEFF SUPPAN road ERA 7.10

ODALIS PEREZ last 3 starts 7.16

looks good

[Deke101]

Quick Facts:

Brewers Hit:
.243 Away
.237 Night games
.273 vs. LHP (their best number)

Suppan's ERA's:
7.11 on the Road
6.89 Night games


Nationals Hit:
.238 at Home
.231 Night games
.236 vs. RHP

Perez's ERA's:
2.66 at Home
4.86 Night games

Appears to be the same situation as last night's Brewers/Pirates game. Poor pitching, but also poor batting. That game was 4-8 Pirates and was an OVER. I think hitters are bound to come around on bad pitching.

Some Problems:

Nationals:
In their last 7 games they average 2.4 runs and give up 3.6 runs.

Plusses:

Brewers:
Have 5 blown saves on the road.

Nationals:
Their bullpen isn't very good with a 5.09 ERA and an average of 2.1 Runs coming in at home.

You can make a case for either side of the total tonight. You can point out Suppan's 7.10 road ERA and Perez's 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts and take the OVER. Or you can take the same stats, and switch pitchers and say Perez has a 2.66 Home ERA and Suppan has a 4.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and take the UNDER.

I'm gonna wait til closer to game time to see if I'll play it. Good Luck with your current bet topgame, I know you know these totals pretty well.

[topgame85]

Thanks for the write up! very informative and insightful as always, I already played it so hope it goes the way I envisioned but I see your point for it to possibly go under GL tonight

[BuddyBear]

I am not as sold as you guys are and make take a stab at the under if the price keeps going down on the under. In fact, if anything, this looks like a much stronger side than the over here all things being equal.

The thing here is that both pitchers are very capable of throwing a good game despite their inconsistencies from time to time. Odalils Perez has had one start at home and pitched relativley well in it. Suppan has been a major disappointment IMO no matter what Milwaukee management tells you. He was the highest paid Brewer in history for a pitcher (Yes, even more so than Ben Sheets) and he has severely underachieved. He's relativley reliable and can pitch deep into games and every now and then can give you a 7 or 8 inning effort. If that's the case and if Perez pitches well that could mean less chance of seeing the bullpens which are two of the worst in the league (#23 and #27 respectively). One note is the MIL bullpen is not as bad as you might think now with Derek Turnblow gone and Eric Gagne out indefinitely as well so keep that in mind if you are banking on the MIL bullpen to make this go over. The bullpen is much more solid with Torres, Mota, Shouse, McClung, Stetter, etc.... So don't count on an implosion from the MIL pen as Ned Yost likes to use his bullpen situationally and create advantageous matchups.

Neither team features a terribly strong offense. For WSH it was expected, but MIL has severely underachieved offensively and they are very weak offensively on the road (BA:.243)...only more embarrassing is WSH's home batting average (BA: .238). However, MIL does hit lefties pretty well (BA: 273) so don't expect long rallies I would think from these lineups. In fact, MIL's lineup outside of Braun and Hart and to some degree Hardy and Fielder is really week. Weaks is pathetic, Cameron only slightly better, Bill Hall, etc....

I wouldn't be shocked by an over as either of these teams could erupt b/c we are talking about two below average pitchers here, but with these two teams and these two pitchers who trend toward pitching undres and with a relatively high total in an unders ballpark I'd be somewhat surprised if it happened and lean very strongly toward the under.

Good luck.....