07-11-08, 08:02 AM
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#71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodg8
What does 'pk' mean?
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PK= Pick Em
This is the term used to describe a zero point spread. Just "pick" one team or another.
__________________
The definition of a man is, to say and do the right things at the right times without being asked, and to continue to do them even if no one else is watching.-Me
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07-13-08, 01:51 AM
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#72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
Why would anyone bet these lines? its like russian roulette...
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Well, I can find value this early if I look hard enough sir. So needless to say I can totally understand why somebody would place wagers this early. Now of course the drawbacks are tying up your funds for roughly two months and the preseason injury factor. |
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07-13-08, 03:28 AM
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#73
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There is absolutely NO reason to bet these lines, for several reasons:
1) I see 30 cent lines for NFL week 1 games
2) You will lose interest on the money you lay
3) There is no way you can wager on teams that dont even have finalized rosters
4) Its F'n crazy
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07-13-08, 05:05 AM
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#74
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TB +3-
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07-13-08, 10:42 AM
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#75
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San Francisco +6.5, ML
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
There is absolutely NO reason to bet these lines, for several reasons:
1) I see 30 cent lines for NFL week 1 games
2) You will lose interest on the money you lay
3) There is no way you can wager on teams that dont even have finalized rosters
4) Its F'n crazy
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Absolutely. This goes for futures in general, as well, IMHO. You've gotta have a pretty incredible handicapping edge to book a bet much further out than one week.
Even so, us NFL maniacs are chomping at the bit to get at it! Please forgive us! 
__________________
Give a hoot — don't pollute!
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07-13-08, 11:08 AM
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#76
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I now see value in the Detroit as a pick, even though the games are still far, far away. Detroit should kick the Falcons in the shins real hard.
__________________
"What we ARE NEVER changes, who we ARE is ALWAYS changing."
"You will lose lots of money chasing after women, but you will NEVER lose women chasing after money"
I do 3 kinds of work, Good, Fast, and Cheap. If the work is Cheap and Good, it won't be Fast. If the work is Cheap and Fast, it won't be Good. And lastly, if the work is Good and Fast it won't be Cheap. Remember that.
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07-13-08, 11:36 AM
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#77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick McIrish
TB +3-
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Think again!!
The Saints is back!! That Defense will be better! |
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07-13-08, 11:36 AM
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#78
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Its soo difficult to predict week 1 winners... Look at all the week 1's for the last few years, look at how many "upsets" there are.
Teams play differently week 1, they know they have a fresh start and dont want last years failures to come into this year. Why do you think books even have lines like this out? its obvious, to take money from SUCKERS... Real sharps wouldnt touch these lines with a 10 foot pole, and neither will I.
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07-13-08, 11:49 AM
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#79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
Its soo difficult to predict week 1 winners... Look at all the week 1's for the last few years, look at how many "upsets" there are.
Teams play differently week 1, they know they have a fresh start and dont want last years failures to come into this year. Why do you think books even have lines like this out? its obvious, to take money from SUCKERS... Real sharps wouldnt touch these lines with a 10 foot pole, and neither will I.
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Regardless of your views on week 1, your completely ignoring the fact that you can get some VALUE lines here. I can guarantee most of these lines will change a fair bit between now and then, and if you get on the right side now you can always scalp out later. Or, if you don't mind betting on week 1, just take your good position and keep it. |
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07-13-08, 01:59 PM
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#80
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With extra juice plus interest, any "apparent value" will be negated. Just wait untill preseason, or do what the books want you to do, bite an early line...
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07-20-08, 05:45 PM
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#81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
With extra juice plus interest, any "apparent value" will be negated. Just wait untill preseason, or do what the books want you to do, bite an early line...
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I respectfully disagree sir. If anything you would collect interest if you do your homework correctly. |
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07-20-08, 06:24 PM
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#82
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How would you collect interest? Your money is tied up with bookie, and I dont know any bookies that give interest on account balances...
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07-20-08, 06:30 PM
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#83
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escarbajo negro
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pinnacle now has these up at -104/-104 $3,000 limit
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07-20-08, 06:33 PM
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#84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds
Thats because people cant wait for them...People get hammered during basketball and baseball season and make it up during football season  |
Not me. |
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07-20-08, 07:16 PM
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#85
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Why are the pinny totals 10 cents? I thought all NFL stuff was 8 cents.
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07-20-08, 07:17 PM
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#86
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Here is my NFL winning technique for next season. Pats ML every game.
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07-20-08, 07:19 PM
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#87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
How would you collect interest? Your money is tied up with bookie, and I dont know any bookies that give interest on account balances...
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If you scalp it out later and hit a middle. Then you get more than just interest.  |
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07-20-08, 07:21 PM
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#88
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escarbajo negro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
Why are the pinny totals 10 cents? I thought all NFL stuff was 8 cents.
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They've always been 10 |
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07-20-08, 07:22 PM
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#89
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Ya well that is not a sure thing..., also the limit is 4300 ATS and 1400 O/U at Pinny
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07-20-08, 07:26 PM
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#90
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escarbajo negro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
Ya well that is not a sure thing..., also the limit is 4300 ATS and 1400 O/U at Pinny
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maybe for you |
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07-20-08, 07:35 PM
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#91
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im special
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07-20-08, 07:47 PM
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#92
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escarbajo negro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
im special
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pinnacle will give increased limits to players they've deemed square |
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07-20-08, 09:31 PM
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#93
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San Francisco +6.5, ML
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigboydan
If you scalp it out later and hit a middle. Then you get more than just interest. |
I respectfully disagree, BBD.
Interest implies some type of guarantee. There's no guarantee in sports betting. Your team's QB could get injured in the preseason, then what happens to the line? "Interest" has no purpose in handicapping talk, except maybe as sarcasm, and if that's what you meant, I missed it.
Quote:
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Here is my NFL winning technique for next season. Pats ML every game.
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Be a man, bet them ATS too! They'll cover. Trust me. Just don't lay the 28 pts when it gets up that high. The respective ML on that line probably is also a bad play at that point.
__________________
Give a hoot — don't pollute!
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07-21-08, 12:47 AM
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#94
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Technically i was a "square" while wagering with them. That was a while ago, lost around 4g's in about 3 months with them.
But they will pay...
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07-21-08, 04:03 AM
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#95
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San Francisco +6.5, ML
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
Technically i was a "square" while wagering with them. That was a while ago, lost around 4g's in about 3 months with them.
But they will pay...
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Yeah, you gotta hammer them early in the season before everyone jumps on the bandwagon and starts hammering the heck out of the line and it starts losing it's value.
__________________
Give a hoot — don't pollute!
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07-21-08, 04:35 AM
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#96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker00
Yeah, you gotta hammer them early in the season before everyone jumps on the bandwagon and starts hammering the heck out of the line and it starts losing it's value.
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unless its on a key number like 3, 7, 10,14, i dont see any reason to bet early because nfl lines don't move much until game day, at least this is what ive observed for many yrs in a row now. i know a few nfl sharps who i have witnessed win every yr, and they do not touch a single game the first 3 weeks. |
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07-21-08, 05:05 AM
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#97
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San Francisco +6.5, ML
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopster42
unless its on a key number like 3, 7, 10,14, i dont see any reason to bet early because nfl lines don't move much until game day, at least this is what ive observed for many yrs in a row now. i know a few nfl sharps who i have witnessed win every yr, and they do not touch a single game the first 3 weeks.
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If you reread what I wrote in my previous post and further above, you'll understand I wasn't talking about betting week 1 lines more than a week ahead of the game.
I also disagree about ignoring the first 3 weeks of the season. In fact, I think there's more value there than towards the middle of the season when the lines get squeaky tight. It's my theory that the first 3 weeks, there's a bunch of new NFL cappers throwing all kinds of money in the wrong direction, which keeps the lines loose. After those guys get busted around week 3, then the lines start to tighten up.
__________________
Give a hoot — don't pollute!
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07-21-08, 11:00 AM
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#98
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Do you guys have any stats to back up your claims? or do you just talk out of your ass
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07-21-08, 10:08 PM
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#99
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San Francisco +6.5, ML
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
Do you guys have any stats to back up your claims? or do you just talk out of your ass
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Look it up yourself. It's not like we are hoarding all the stat sheets over here.
__________________
Give a hoot — don't pollute!
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07-22-08, 03:57 PM
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#100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker00
If you reread what I wrote in my previous post and further above, you'll understand I wasn't talking about betting week 1 lines more than a week ahead of the game.
I also disagree about ignoring the first 3 weeks of the season. In fact, I think there's more value there than towards the middle of the season when the lines get squeaky tight. It's my theory that the first 3 weeks, there's a bunch of new NFL cappers throwing all kinds of money in the wrong direction, which keeps the lines loose. After those guys get busted around week 3, then the lines start to tighten up.
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respectfully Sir, you are wrong. nfl lines are tight from the get go, in week 1, and whatever lines look loose, look again. there is not enough info about the teams available, the coaches of each team don't know what to expect,
weeks 1-3 are a graveyard in the NFL, i have seen it happen to many great nfl cappers, and they learned their lesson to wait until the teams show some form |
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07-22-08, 04:07 PM
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#101
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NFL is a shitty sport to bet. Ive been looking at ATS and OU stats for seasons 2000 to 2007 and look what I found...
Road team ATS record is 1026-1006, that's (50.5%)
Under is 1032-1000, that's (50.78%)
On Average the O/U line is 41.107 points
On Average the Total score for the game is 41.96 points
On Average the Home ATS line is -2.47
On Average the Home team wins by 2.58 points
How the hell can anyone beat these numbers?
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07-22-08, 04:39 PM
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#102
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San Francisco +6.5, ML
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady2Moss
NFL is a shitty sport to bet. Ive been looking at ATS and OU stats for seasons 2000 to 2007 and look what I found...
Road team ATS record is 1026-1006, that's (50.5%)
Under is 1032-1000, that's (50.78%)
On Average the O/U line is 41.107 points
On Average the Total score for the game is 41.96 points
On Average the Home ATS line is -2.47
On Average the Home team wins by 2.58 points
How the hell can anyone beat these numbers?
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Don't use those numbers.
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Give a hoot — don't pollute!
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