[mofome]

Santana vs Burnett:

Ervin Santana
Santana has enjoyed a turn around season in 08 as his HA/k ratio and HA/IP ratio are simply awesome compared to what he did in 07. At 6-1 and with a good offense behind him, i don't see why he is a dog you can find at better than +120.

Ervins Stats:

• 7.42 K/9
• 1.93 BB/9
• 0.59 HR/9
• .219 ave against
• .267 BABIP
• 18.9 LD%
• 34.9 GB%
• 46.3 FB%
• 8.9% HR/FB

What he throws:

• 68.2% FB
• 27.5% Slider
• 3.8% Change.

so you can see that Ervin is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher that will mix in the change every once in a while.

Ervin ERA splits



Ervin BA splits



Ervin LOB% splits



As you would expect, Santana has been much tougher on righties than lefties; his BA allowed to lefties is something he'll have to work on as it sits near .300 presently.

AJ Burnett
Aj some of the most dominant stuff in the game, but he can struggle to locate at times and that gets him in trouble. It is absolutely ridiculous to see Burnetts ERA up ove 4.70, but thats where we find him 2/3rds of the way through May.

Burnett's Stats:

• 7.69 K/9
• 4.24 BB/9
• 0.63 HR/9
• .264 BAA
• .324 BABIP
• 19.1% LD
• 47.4 % GB
• 33.5 % FB
• 6.9 % HR/FB

What he throws:

• 66.0% FB
• 2.8% slider
• 25.4% Curve Ball
• 5.8% Change

Burnett mixes his pitches up more than Ervin does, but he still seems to rely too much on his power Fb and Power curve. He gets enamored with the strike out when he really should be forcing more guys to put the ball in play against him. His stuff is nasty, but he goes out looking to K the side each inning and he gets his pitch count up and he eventually finds himself in trouble. what is interesting is that Burnett Ks lefties at a higher rate than righties, but his splits vs lefties overall are ugly.

Burnett's ERA splits:



Burnett's BAA splits:



Burnett's LOB% splits:




ah, now we find the reason that the Jays are favored tonight, AJ Burnett has dominated this LAA lineup. Overall this roster is hitting just .190 off of Aj and their OPS is under .690. Vlad makes up over half of the teams 63 totals ABS against the tall right hander and he is just 7 of 34 with 9 Ks. Tori hunter has seen Burnett more than anyone other than Vlad and he is just 1 of 8 off the Tor starter. The rest of the bats have just 4 hits in 19 matchups with Burnett.

Ervin has had a decent amount of success against the Tor lineup over his career. In 115 team ABs this lineup is hitting just .243 against santana with only 5HR and 7 walks. Wells, Stairs, and Stewart have hit the youngster hard, but wells is out tonight. The power against ervin has come off the bat of Brad Wilkerson who has 3 HRs in 18Abs in his meetings with the Angels starter.

The angels bats have really struggled over their last games as they've batted just .228 and have an OBP under .295. The halos actually score more on the road than they do at home, but their BA as the vositing side is still pretty bad.

As most of us know, the Tor bats have struggled at home, on the road, on turf, and in just about every circumstance you could imagine. The bright spot for this team has been their pitching and that success extends into the bullpen where the jays rank 2nd in the AL. If this line moves under -130 for the jays, this will be an LT Profit BP system play.

A trend of note here is the fact that 9 of the last 10 in this series have gone under the total.

Umpire:
Jeff Kellogg is the ump tonight and 5 of his 8 games have gone under, though last year he was more of an unders umpire. Here are kellogs games:

• Date - Road Team - Home Team - line - result
• 04/01 NY Mets(Pedro Martinez) Florida(Rick VandenHurk) 9 P
• 04/06 Chi White Sox(Mark Buehrle) Detroit(Justin Verlander) 0 O
• 04/11 San Diego(Jake Peavy) Dodgers(Brad Penny) 7 O
• 04/15 Arizona(Micah Owings) San Francisco(Kevin Correia) 7.5 O
• 04/20 Colorado(Ubaldo Jimenez) Houston(Shawn Chacon) 9.5 O
• 04/24 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) Milwaukee(Jeff Suppan) 10 U
• 04/28 Baltimore(Daniel Cabrera) Chi White Sox(Javier Vazquez) 8.5 U
• 05/02 Cincinnati(Edinson Volquez) Atlanta(Tim Hudson) 8.5 U
• 05/06 Texas(Sidney Ponson) Seattle(Miguel Batista) 9 O
• 05/10 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) San Francisco(Tim Lincecum) 8 O

Burnett has struggled greatly against lefties and the angels two hottest hitters, Kotchman and Anderson, happen to be lefties. Ervin is getting a spot start tonight, but he i still on full rest. Tonight i will take Ana ff and the game under 8.5.

Ana ff +117
under 8.5

[mofome]

nice write up

you didnt read it.

[Richkas]

My POD is Toronto. One of us will win

[mofome]

My POD is Toronto. One of us will win

we both could, ive just got LAA for the ff

[Richkas]

we both could, ive just got LAA for the ff

That would work

[LT Profits]

My POD is Toronto.

Mine too!

[Richkas]

Mine too!

I know I'm a winner then

[Sportsgirl]

1

[mofome]

I only see MO win when he does nice writeups so you know Im in on it!

[mofome]

lots of work there , Mo

good luck

ty FS




SG we roll tonight over LT and Richkas

[Sportsgirl]

1

[daggerkobe]

My POD is Toronto. One of us will win

Blue Jay$$$$$

[mofome]

Blue Jay$$$$$

The mean IQ of those on the Jays just dropped considerably.

[fiveteamer]

Toronto sucks.


Anaheim doesn't.


The end.

[treece]

nice write up

the write up is nice but all that matters is if you win the game.

[katstale]

the write up is nice but all that matters is if you win the game.

I just can't see all that work for bettin $5

Win or lose!!

[mofome]

the write up is nice but all that matters is if you win the game.

the information allows people to form their own opinions. I don't write these with any bias.

[mofome]

I just can't see all that work for bettin $5

Win or lose!!

Then maybe you should double your unit size and bet 10.


bol

[Justin7]

If you are capping pitchers, you'll do better using their last 2 years of games than just this season. K and BB/9 are much more important than ERAs..

[mofome]

If you are capping pitchers, you'll do better using their last 2 years of games than just this season. K and BB/9 are much more important than ERAs..

k/9 and bb/9 numbers are in here, ERAs are not. i like to look at those numbers as well as LD%, fb% if the wind is blowing out, BABIP, bullpen, and a pitchers previous matchups against the bats he will see.

[mofome]

this game could not be going worse. ana gets 2 in the 5th but they still lose due to a DB with 2 men on. so 5 runs off the total and a loss ff




normally a single, HBP, double, double = 3 runs. not today.

[rake922]

You should be alot more comprehensive

[mofome]

You should be alot more comprehensive

alot is two words.

[flyingillini]

Santana vs Burnett:

Ervin Santana
Santana has enjoyed a turn around season in 08 as his HA/k ratio and HA/IP ratio are simply awesome compared to what he did in 07. At 6-1 and with a good offense behind him, i don't see why he is a dog you can find at better than +120.

Ervins Stats:

• 7.42 K/9
• 1.93 BB/9
• 0.59 HR/9
• .219 ave against
• .267 BABIP
• 18.9 LD%
• 34.9 GB%
• 46.3 FB%
• 8.9% HR/FB

What he throws:

• 68.2% FB
• 27.5% Slider
• 3.8% Change.

so you can see that Ervin is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher that will mix in the change every once in a while.

Ervin ERA splits



Ervin BA splits



Ervin LOB% splits



As you would expect, Santana has been much tougher on righties than lefties; his BA allowed to lefties is something he'll have to work on as it sits near .300 presently.

AJ Burnett
Aj some of the most dominant stuff in the game, but he can struggle to locate at times and that gets him in trouble. It is absolutely ridiculous to see Burnetts ERA up ove 4.70, but thats where we find him 2/3rds of the way through May.

Burnett's Stats:

• 7.69 K/9
• 4.24 BB/9
• 0.63 HR/9
• .264 BAA
• .324 BABIP
• 19.1% LD
• 47.4 % GB
• 33.5 % FB
• 6.9 % HR/FB

What he throws:

• 66.0% FB
• 2.8% slider
• 25.4% Curve Ball
• 5.8% Change

Burnett mixes his pitches up more than Ervin does, but he still seems to rely too much on his power Fb and Power curve. He gets enamored with the strike out when he really should be forcing more guys to put the ball in play against him. His stuff is nasty, but he goes out looking to K the side each inning and he gets his pitch count up and he eventually finds himself in trouble. what is interesting is that Burnett Ks lefties at a higher rate than righties, but his splits vs lefties overall are ugly.

Burnett's ERA splits:



Burnett's BAA splits:



Burnett's LOB% splits:




ah, now we find the reason that the Jays are favored tonight, AJ Burnett has dominated this LAA lineup. Overall this roster is hitting just .190 off of Aj and their OPS is under .690. Vlad makes up over half of the teams 63 totals ABS against the tall right hander and he is just 7 of 34 with 9 Ks. Tori hunter has seen Burnett more than anyone other than Vlad and he is just 1 of 8 off the Tor starter. The rest of the bats have just 4 hits in 19 matchups with Burnett.

Ervin has had a decent amount of success against the Tor lineup over his career. In 115 team ABs this lineup is hitting just .243 against santana with only 5HR and 7 walks. Wells, Stairs, and Stewart have hit the youngster hard, but wells is out tonight. The power against ervin has come off the bat of Brad Wilkerson who has 3 HRs in 18Abs in his meetings with the Angels starter.

The angels bats have really struggled over their last games as they've batted just .228 and have an OBP under .295. The halos actually score more on the road than they do at home, but their BA as the vositing side is still pretty bad.

As most of us know, the Tor bats have struggled at home, on the road, on turf, and in just about every circumstance you could imagine. The bright spot for this team has been their pitching and that success extends into the bullpen where the jays rank 2nd in the AL. If this line moves under -130 for the jays, this will be an LT Profit BP system play.

A trend of note here is the fact that 9 of the last 10 in this series have gone under the total.

Umpire:
Jeff Kellogg is the ump tonight and 5 of his 8 games have gone under, though last year he was more of an unders umpire. Here are kellogs games:

• Date - Road Team - Home Team - line - result
• 04/01 NY Mets(Pedro Martinez) Florida(Rick VandenHurk) 9 P
• 04/06 Chi White Sox(Mark Buehrle) Detroit(Justin Verlander) 0 O
• 04/11 San Diego(Jake Peavy) Dodgers(Brad Penny) 7 O
• 04/15 Arizona(Micah Owings) San Francisco(Kevin Correia) 7.5 O
• 04/20 Colorado(Ubaldo Jimenez) Houston(Shawn Chacon) 9.5 O
• 04/24 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) Milwaukee(Jeff Suppan) 10 U
• 04/28 Baltimore(Daniel Cabrera) Chi White Sox(Javier Vazquez) 8.5 U
• 05/02 Cincinnati(Edinson Volquez) Atlanta(Tim Hudson) 8.5 U
• 05/06 Texas(Sidney Ponson) Seattle(Miguel Batista) 9 O
• 05/10 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) San Francisco(Tim Lincecum) 8 O

Burnett has struggled greatly against lefties and the angels two hottest hitters, Kotchman and Anderson, happen to be lefties. Ervin is getting a spot start tonight, but he i still on full rest. Tonight i will take Ana ff and the game under 8.5.

Ana ff +117
under 8.5

Very nice write up. I appreciate the time and effort you put in to doing all the work like that. You make it very easy for people like me that really don't put much effort into doing research. I just pick a team that I feel will win. I guess that is why I lose my shirt each year in betting. Ha Ha. Great work Buddy!

[mofome]

Very nice write up. I appreciate the time and effort you put in to doing all the work like that. You make it very easy for people like me that really don't put much effort into doing research. I just pick a team that I feel will win. I guess that is why I lose my shirt each year in betting. Ha Ha. Great work Buddy!

haha thanks bud. thats the point to get out the info, the pick is not as relevant imo if you dont know whats behind it. i just want to pick a game or two a day, put everything out there, and let people decide if they want to play it or not. play my side, the other side, or something else...i try to write these without any bias at all. the more sports/handicapping stuff the better.


thanks for the comment illini.

[Sportsgirl]

1

[daggerkobe]

Blue Jay$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


This is why I tell people not to do write ups.... just takes time away from picking winners and convinces sheep to follow a losing pick.

Took me 5 seconds to know Blue Jays was the correct side.

[daggerkobe]

The mean IQ of those on the Jays just dropped considerably.

At least I'm not the one who wasted my time doing some long winded ass writeup, only to be completely wrong.

[BeatTheJerk]

come on now he wasn't completely wrong ............ they lost by one run it wasnt a laugher . i usually like to fade bold perdictions from anyone , but i also had the LAA tonite as a small dog and my under the radar winning streak ended at 7 games. my plays r posted on the best bet thread !

[mofome]

Blue Jay$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


This is why I tell people not to do write ups.... just takes time away from picking winners and convinces sheep to follow a losing pick.

Took me 5 seconds to know Blue Jays was the correct side.

i was 1-1 on this one and im much better than you at handicapping and life.

[mofome]

At least I'm not the one who wasted my time doing some long winded ass writeup, only to be completely wrong.

whats completely wrong about 1-1? ah, you're not literate. I don't do the write ups for me, i do them for those that ask for them. someone asked, and i wrote this game up.