[fearless]

I think it's the moneyline because a relatively small difference in the spread makes a huge difference in the moneyline. Just 2 1/2 or 3 points on the spread can raise the moneyline a lot. For example, Boston was -4.5, -200 ml yesterday and the Lakers are -7.5, -360 ml today (bookmaker lines). For this reason, I think that getting the moneyline right is more important for oddsmakers.

[fearless]

This is a crucial issue for all of us. Another reason I think the moneyline is more important:

Most books casually put point spreads the night before BUT THEY ONLY PUT UP MONEYLINES THE DAY OF THE GAME, for most games anyway.

I think this indicates to us that getting the moneyline right is considered to be important to books. Why is it important to us? Because the moneyline lean is usually a more precise indicator of which who the book expects to win the point spread that's posted, imho.